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NZD/USD

  • #2,541
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:04pm Nov 12, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} I can't be bother reading all thoses things that anyway I would interpret in a bad way. There are so much clues left on charts to guess where market is heading. But still... if you like to resume in a couple of sentences... I'm quite sure it says what market is doing right?
Volume is thin, moves are exacerbated, lets see what Asia and London open brings to determine the ultimate direction. The we'll see who interpreted the report "correctly"
  • #2,542
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:05pm Nov 12, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting shripsfx
for those chasing the pips then the GBP/NZD has a classic inverse H & S pattern that looks stronger than the NZ/US pair. 500+ pips available if the the formation plays out
I think euro is more bullish than gbp and usd, a buy limit eurnzd 1.6245 would be fantastic if they give before or after RBNZ Gov. speech tonite !!!
  • #2,543
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:13pm Nov 12, 2013 4:13pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} I can't be bother reading all thoses things that anyway I would interpret in a bad way. There are so much clues left on charts to guess where market is heading. But still... if you like to resume in a couple of sentences... I'm quite sure it says what market is doing right?
Market's goal is to get ahead of (front run) what they believe will happen.
When the time comes that they realize it is less likely to happen, they pare back their positions to mark themselves back within expectations.

Now it becomes less likely that the RBNZ will raise rates any time soon, so obviously the market is going to reprice it... but not quite yet. They have to lure in the suckers first.

While I agree that the majority of the market players act on the prevailing trend which further drives price in that direction, it is the market makers (the ones who price the crosses) and the large hedge funds that control things.

So if I was a big hedge fund manager and I saw the lemmings buying to their heart's content, I would let them do so until they run out of steam. Then I would take my profits and take out all the lemming' stops in the process. That is called a trap and a squeeze. I see that coming very soon, so I'm not buying.

The campaign to lure in the lemmings has probably already started. Just watch the retail crowd sentiment over the next few days.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,544
  • Edited 4:56pm Nov 12, 2013 4:26pm | Edited 4:56pm
Quoting plesac
H&S od daily in proces {image}

Today we had a test of neck area and 200 ema on daily. Not promissing so far. 1 hr divergence in progress so most likly bounce up above cumo. that 1 candle retrace dont look good. If we somehow make more down it would be for me 8080 area area in next two days or 8130-8120 from friday.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh4.png Size: 96 KB
  • #2,545
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:32pm Nov 12, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Market's goal is to get ahead of (front run) what they believe will happen. When the time comes that they realize it is less likely to happen, they pare back their positions to mark themselves back within expectations. Now it becomes less likely that the RBNZ will raise rates any time soon, so obviously the market is going to reprice it... but not quite yet. They have to lure in the suckers first. While I agree that the majority of the market players act on the prevailing trend which further drives price in that direction, it is the market...
Thank you guys for your explanation:

This what I was expected... Things tell you to be long... but at least not for the moment => Meaning be short now.

Retail Sentiment crowd... I didn't watch it... but it's not hard to guess mainly are bullish as price going down => Meaning lol.

That's why I like to stick to the chart...

For example... last candle TH4 pin bar rejection on last support before massive decline tells us to be aware of an eventual rally untill 0.8289 or more could happen.
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  • #2,546
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:32pm Nov 12, 2013 4:32pm
RBNZ’s Wheeler: Strong New Zealand dollar poses a risk – House prices are overvalued^CThttp://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/11/12/rbnzs-wheeler-likely-to-start-raising-rates-next-year/
  • #2,547
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:40pm Nov 12, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} Thank you guys for your explanation: This what I was expected... Things tell you to be long... but at least not for the moment => Meaning be short now. Retail Sentiment crowd... I didn't watch it... but it's not hard to guess mainly are bullish as price going down => Meaning lol. That's why I like to stick to the chart... For example... last candle TH4 pin bar rejection on last support before massive decline tells us to be aware of an eventual rally untill 0.8289 or more could happen.
Well that also depends on what kind of trades one takes. If the target is 100 pips or less, obviously it will be a far different strategy than someone who looks for the 500 to 1000 pip trades.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,548
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:56pm Nov 12, 2013 4:56pm
If NZD is going down, why the rebound so strong to 8223 right now? maybe still remain bullish???
  • #2,549
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:02pm Nov 12, 2013 5:02pm
Quoting imnicetoyou
If NZD is going down, why the rebound so strong to 8223 right now? maybe still remain bullish???
Trend line support and demand zone
N/U H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusdh4.png Size: 61 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,550
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:49pm Nov 12, 2013 5:49pm
Quoting imnicetoyou
If NZD is going down, why the rebound so strong to 8223 right now? maybe still remain bullish???
It's because it's going up right now that it may drop at news event!!!
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  • #2,551
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:16pm Nov 12, 2013 6:16pm
ok, it seems that it will go down... for the next 24 hours.
  • #2,552
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:36am Nov 13, 2013 6:36am
Quoting imnicetoyou
ok, it seems that it will go down... for the next 24 hours.
Actually its going back up, trying to break the pattern. If it goes back down to 8200 and below, good opportunity to short and grab some pips. I hardly can wait it.



Attached Image
Stay green! FN
  • #2,553
  • Nov 13, 2013 7:59am Nov 13, 2013 7:59am
Quoting forexn00b
{quote} Actually its going back up, trying to break the pattern. If it goes back down to 8200 and below, good opportunity to short and grab some pips. I hardly can wait it. {image}
ya maybe 825x any pullback MA 50
  • #2,554
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:12am Nov 13, 2013 9:12am
Daily pin bar forming?

http://charts.mql5.com/3/48/nzdusd-d...-division1.png
  • #2,555
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:26am Nov 13, 2013 9:26am
I think the whole world is watching this beautiful H&S pattern. You have to notice the 200 SMA sitting few pips below the neck line. But, the Thursday candle is the only one capable of either generating a bounce to the 20 SMA, or a break of the support area since we will have to keep one eye on Ben B. this afternoon around 5 ET and the other on Janet's hearing tomorrow morning.
  • #2,556
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:39am Nov 13, 2013 9:39am
Quoting pinoismo
I think the whole world is watching this beautiful H&S pattern. You have to notice the 200 SMA sitting few pips below the neck line. But, the Thursday candle is the only one capable of either generating a bounce to the 20 SMA, or a break of the support area since we will have to keep one eye on Ben B. this afternoon around 5 ET and the other on Janet's hearing tomorrow morning.
Indeed, you're right. Everyone is watching this amazing H&S pattern. So it must do the job, self-fulfilling is great in this market.
Stay green! FN
  • #2,557
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:02am Nov 13, 2013 10:02am
I was strongly bearish but market's recent price action starts to change my outlook view.

Too many people expecting too much from the obvious H&S
Very strong support

Now I'm long untill market is above 0.8180

Weekly chart:
Attached Image
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  • #2,558
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:08am Nov 13, 2013 10:08am
Quoting Crazy-Trader
I was strongly bearish but market's recent price action starts to change my outlook view. Too many people expecting too much from the obvious H&S Very strong support Now I'm long untill market is above 0.8180 Weekly chart: {image}
if i am not wrong i seen ur post ur calling 0.80 and 0.77 lolx and now ur long
  • #2,559
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:09am Nov 13, 2013 10:09am
Quoting Crazy-Trader
I was strongly bearish but market's recent price action starts to change my outlook view. Too many people expecting too much from the obvious H&S Very strong support Now I'm long untill market is above 0.8180 Weekly chart: {image}

Your chart looks very bullish. However, we have to wait untill that hammer is confirmed by Friday afternoon.
  • #2,560
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:23am Nov 13, 2013 10:23am
Quoting Crazy-Trader
I was strongly bearish but market's recent price action starts to change my outlook view. Too many people expecting too much from the obvious H&S Very strong support Now I'm long untill market is above 0.8180 Weekly chart: {image}
Let me add:

2) Gartley on Weekly TF targeting .80
3) Bearish Engulf targetting .80

above .842 cancel out H&S
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