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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #381
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:53am Nov 12, 2013 2:53am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Stop gambling will save you even more money. In fact it will make you money. I regularly sleep upto 8-10 hours with 20+ open trades without stops, and sleep very well. In fact I make money every day, because some of those trades come into money while I sleep. However I reduce my orders when I sleep, but still leave a few to catch a position if something looks promising. Go on then, someone start crying foul that I claim to make money every day. I know how impossible this will sound to a lot of people. Unlike those who consistently lose money,...
Stop gambling is the first step, yes, haha
But well, if your trade setup is meant to be traded without stop losses then you will only have the risk left that we all have, a unforseen gap in price or very strong and fast movements (which is unlikely, but a good trader always calculates with the worst case).
So what is your point of not using sl's ? I mean they don't hurt you.

The thing is, if a strategy is NOT meant to stay in a trade for long times and you are FORCED to let the trade run because of a lost connection, then you will be very glad for every SL.

-Darwin
  • #382
  • Nov 12, 2013 8:04am Nov 12, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Darwin-FX
So what is your point of not using sl's ? I mean they don't hurt you.
If your guarantee to buy high and sell low, that will hurt. To buy at 10 and stop at 5 is such a guarantee. Tell me. what reason do you have to deliberately tell people you want to buy high and sell low ? Are you not worried they will accept your deal, because it's a no loss deal for them ?
  • #383
  • Edited 8:29am Nov 12, 2013 8:08am | Edited 8:29am
Quoting bluesteele
Let us all know in a year from now where your No Stoploss methods get you.. I can guarantee you most likely will be worse off than you are now..
Given you poor predictive capability, your guarantee is not worthy much. In a year I will still be here, because my account balance goes up every day, assuming of course I don't get banned first for making all the noobies cry.
  • #384
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:22am Nov 12, 2013 9:22am
Quoting Kyle_Vee
To me the problem is not the stop loss itself, but the reason why you are not using one. To start off with, I don't care for hard physical stop losses, whether it is set on your order or in your head and you are confident you will be in front of the screen then the two are equal enough. The most concerning part about not having a stop loss is that you are entering a trade without knowing when to call it a day. If you enter a trade without saying to yourself that if price does X then I know I have made the wrong decision then you are just begging...
I think Kyle made some good points. But I never faced price moved more than 1000 pips against my trades. It happened 4 times with me, price went around 1000 pips against me while I was trading without SL and I was kicked out because of margin call,i.e. not having enough to take that -1000 pips moves.
  • #385
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:35am Nov 12, 2013 9:35am
Quoting Red Herring
{quote} I think Kyle made some good points. But I never faced price moved more than 1000 pips against my trades. It happened 4 times with me, price went around 1000 pips against me while I was trading without SL and I was kicked out because of margin call,i.e. not having enough to take that -1000 pips moves.
Being kicked out is to do with incorrect sizing. Incorrect sizing is to do with gambling. Gambles are best guarded with stop losses. Also one shouldn't be married to the direction. One should trade the profitable direction regardless of what long or short positions one holds. In a 1000 pip move, there should have been plenty of signs indicating which way it was moving.
  • #386
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:32am Nov 12, 2013 10:32am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Given you poor predictive capability, your guarantee is not worthy much. In a year I will still be here, because my account balance goes up every day, assuming of course I don't get banned first for making all the noobies cry.

LOL.....Yep another sign.. WoW you better go show Stevey Cohen or Paul Tudor Jones your statements buds...You could show those fellas something with an acct that goes up every single day...

You should be ashamed for telling such bald faced lies..

I wish I was as good as you.
Markets are Mirrors,,Mastery of craft is mastery of self
  • #387
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:41am Nov 12, 2013 11:41am
Quoting bluesteele
{quote} LOL.....Yep another sign.. WoW you better go show Stevey Cohen or Paul Tudor Jones your statements buds...You could show those fellas something with an acct that goes up every single day... You should be ashamed for telling such bald faced lies.. I wish I was as good as you.
You said you were much better than me. I am happy to accept it.

I wasn't lying. Here, let me give you something else to throw a fit on: 100% of trades I closed out yesterday and today were winners and there were large number of them. I generally take losses only on very good days. Yesterday was a poor day. Today was better but I overslept and miss out on the best profits on GBP. I may be compensated later as GBP is resuming downward move and I have added more positions.

I have no need to show anyone my statement. But I am here to tell noobs why they need to stop gambling or to pretend they know how to predict how far draw downs will go.
  • #388
  • Nov 12, 2013 12:51pm Nov 12, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} You said you were much better than me. I am happy to accept it. I wasn't lying. Here, let me give you something else to throw a fit on: 100% of trades I closed out yesterday and today were winners and there were large number of them. I generally take losses only on very good days. Yesterday was a poor day. Today was better but I overslept and miss out on the best profits on GBP. I may be compensated later as GBP is resuming downward move and I have added more positions. I have no need to show anyone my statement. But I am here to...
So you are not infallible after all ! You may not use stop loss orders, but you do use a stop loss conceptually (ie, there's a point at which you accept you were wrong on a trade and cut the loss before it becomes crippling). Therefore, you are in agreement with the majority of the people you went on arguing with (including myself).

My question is what are you arguing for, then? That trading without using stop loss orders like you do is the only way of trading and making money? You were already shown evidence that that is not the case. I'm confused...
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #389
  • Nov 12, 2013 4:44pm Nov 12, 2013 4:44pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} So you are not infallible after all ! You may not use stop loss orders, but you do use a stop loss conceptually (ie, there's a point at which you accept you were wrong on a trade and cut the loss before it becomes crippling). Therefore, you are in agreement with the majority of the people you went on arguing with (including myself). My question is what are you arguing for, then? That trading without using stop loss orders like you do is the only way of trading and making money? You were already shown evidence that that is not the case. I'm...

You realise, he can manually close out a trade if the trend changes direction.

generally what we should be doing is buying a pull back in an uptrend, and holding till nice profits or a downtrend starts then trust that and exit. No SL just meand no spikes or losses when the trend is still in your favour.

Trading, IF you can keep it as simple as above is that easy, tooks me years to define trends what kinda pull back isn't likely to change the trend.

So don't completely write him off.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #390
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:05pm Nov 12, 2013 5:05pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} So you are not infallible after all ! You may not use stop loss orders, but you do use a stop loss conceptually (ie, there's a point at which you accept you were wrong on a trade and cut the loss before it becomes crippling). Therefore, you are in agreement with the majority of the people you went on arguing with (including myself). My question is what are you arguing for, then? That trading without using stop loss orders like you do is the only way of trading and making money? You were already shown evidence that that is not the case. I'm...

Quoting vox dei
{quote} But, because your personal take on sound and well known concepts like S/R and trend using a unique blend of PA (a la BRV or WMD) + indicators has made charts speak louder. I can see more things on a chart now. I'm also getting better at asserting the importance of those things.
Perhaps you're confused because you just now think you're getting the "hang of it" while criticizing others
for some"thing" you don't understand ???
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #391
  • Edited 5:41pm Nov 12, 2013 5:19pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} So you are not infallible after all ! You may not use stop loss orders, but you do use a stop loss conceptually (ie, there's a point at which you accept you were wrong on a trade and cut the loss before it becomes crippling). Therefore, you are in agreement with the majority of the people you went on arguing with (including myself). My question is what are you arguing for, then? That trading without using stop loss orders like you do is the only way of trading and making money? You were already shown evidence that that is not the case. I'm...
The argument was that 2+2 was saying the market (trades) was unpredictable, except on losing trades. On losing trades those were supposed to be predictable to run for multiple years. Therefore it makes sense to use SL to prevent a multi-year loss. My contention was that even losing trades cannot be predicted to run for a predetermined period. Therefore an SL may not be necessary or even right for use to prevent a multi-year loss given that the precise duration of the loss is unknown. It is therefore my conclusion that an SL is merely a possible option that has no greater weight than other options. Consequently such an option can be quite SAFELY omitted from one's strategy if one so chooses or if one sees an advantage (as stated by the above poster not being spike-able can be a great advantage).

From my personal experience, not using an SL created a transformational change to my profitability, not least from the fact that I no longer, by way of an SL, make a guarantee to buy high and sell low. I believe people declaring a public guarantee to buy high and sell low is the primary reason why they end up buying high and selling low. That is no way to make money.
  • #392
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:45pm Nov 12, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Therefore an SL may not be necessary or even right for use to prevent a multi-year loss given that the precise duration of the loss is unknown.
Simply speaking for myself, I don't intend for losses to run into "multi-year".
Therefore, I shall use an S/L (even if only mental) on shorter term charts
so that I can prevent multi-year losses from occurring.

And..... given the fact that the precise duration of the loss is unknown,
it's reasonable that the precise duration of the win is unknown.

Which in turn means you can't know how far the trade will go against you.

Or further elaborate if I'm missing something.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #393
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:03pm Nov 12, 2013 6:03pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
Which in turn means you can't know how far the trade will go against you.
Actually I do know. It will go against me until it will go for me. But for noobies they could not see the "for me" part. Hence they believe it will run multi-year in the wrong direction, non-stop.
  • #394
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:09pm Nov 12, 2013 6:09pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Actually I do know. It will go against me until it will go for me. But for noobies they could not see the "for me" part. Hence they believe it will run multi-year in the wrong direction.
They'll never get it, lets put it real simple for them.



If he thinks the market is going UP then he will go long, no timing when to enter or pretence of being able to cause it is a pretence and he will hold till he thinks the market is going to the wrong way, then he'll try to exit at a good price, where he will likely flip direction.


Simple, on trend changes you have to be prepared to take the loss not many would be able to trade this way.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #395
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:15pm Nov 12, 2013 6:15pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Actually I do know. It will go against me until it will go for me. But for noobies they could not see the "for me" part. Hence they believe it will run multi-year in the wrong direction.
"will go against me until it will go for me."

That's hard to argue with. I hope that "strategy" works out.

"But for noobies"

who should NOT even pay attention to you because you're incomprehensible.

I hope your multi-year losses turn into 1 pip winners. Nothing like patience, 'ay?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #396
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:18pm Nov 12, 2013 6:18pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} "will go against me until it will go for me." That's hard to argue with. I hope that "strategy" works out. "But for noobies" who should NOT even pay attention to you because you're incomprehensible. I hope your multi-year losses turn into 1 pip winners. Nothing like patience, 'ay?
Incomprehensible to you maybe, but no issues for me completely comprehensible infact, merely too confusing for you.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #397
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:19pm Nov 12, 2013 6:19pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} "will go against me until it will go for me." That's hard to argue with. I hope that "strategy" works out. "But for noobies" who should NOT even pay attention to you because you're incomprehensible. I hope your multi-year losses turn into 1 pip winners. Nothing like patience, 'ay?
I don't have multi-year losses. But others claim I would have if I don't use SL. I do have the capacity to carry a loss for years. Generally I work my trades. If there's no hope, the trade will be discarded or transformed. My trades are not the slightest like casino bets. They can be made to dance.
  • #398
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:39pm Nov 12, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote}. I do have the capacity to carry a loss for years. Generally I work my trades. If there's no hope, the trade will be discarded or transformed. My trades are not the slightest like casino bets. They can be made to dance.
If you believe that the "capacity" to carry a loss for years is a good thing; well, then you do that.

"They can be made to dance. "

But if you you want to "dance" you'd better live in the "here and now". There's no dancing involved
in muti-year trades and you might not live long enough to see "the finally".

When there's no hope (for you) you will discard (yourself) and transform.

All the best.
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #399
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:39pm Nov 12, 2013 6:39pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} You realise, he can manually close out a trade if the trend changes direction. generally what we should be doing is buying a pull back in an uptrend, and holding till nice profits or a downtrend starts then trust that and exit. No SL just meand no spikes or losses when the trend is still in your favour. Trading, IF you can keep it as simple as above is that easy, tooks me years to define trends what kinda pull back isn't likely to change the trend. So don't completely write him off.
Please, read shellsnail useful distinction on stop loss as order vs. stop loss as concept:

Quoting shellsnail
{quote} haha OK - good for you! Honestly, if there's anything as close to a holy grail in the markets, in my opinion is EW theory. I think in terms of big picture, it points you to the large opportunities. But the real useful part is in giving you entries on all time frames. All the stuff like divergences, harmonic patterns, traditional technical patterns and indicators are imo all derivations from elliot wave theory. I'm not entirely sure why it works, but when used with stuff like pivot levels, whole numbers, other areas of confluence it tends...
I'm 100% into the use of stop loss as concept, because the refusal to admit being wrong and act accordingly by cutting losses timely, will inevitably lead to the old same undesired outcome: blown accounts.

I have a clear personal preference for using stop loss orders, because I'm so much into systematic trading (automated/EAs). A trading system must be 100% complete and testable by definition. It would not be a trading system, without measuring risk prior to taking a trade, or without an exit mechanism. The most common and easiest way used to achieve both goals is to use a conventional stop loss. There are a few other, usually more complicated to implement and harder to test ways, to limit losses though, eg., basket trading typically uses a set account% as loss limit.

The tiny portion of my trading that uses discretion sometimes goes without hard stop loss orders, but it is guaranteed I will be there watching like a hawk ready to close manually if things start souring, because I'm a believer there's no money to made consistently without limiting losses.

To sum it up, I have nothing against trading without stop loss orders, albeit it is not my #1 preference as mentioned. As long as the concept of stop loss (limiting losses) exists the specific way one uses to exit trades doesn't really matter much.

Hopefully my position on the topic is perfectly clear now.

Cheers
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #400
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:46pm Nov 12, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} If you believe that the "capacity" to carry a loss for years is a good thing; well, then you do that. "They can be made to dance. " But if you you want to "dance" you'd better live in the "here and now". There's no dancing involved in muti-year trades and you might not live long enough to see "the finally". When there's no hope (for you) you will discard (yourself) and transform. All the best.
I don't have multi-year trades. I do have multi-month trades. I have the capacity to carry a loss for months or years. I find it to be a good thing because I am not easily bustable. I believe trades can be danced out of trouble.
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