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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #128,661
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:45am Nov 11, 2013 8:45am
Quoting Neytiri
COFFEE FAKEOUT Neytiri {image} {image}
Valid trade, But I would be nimble footed here. The LLS is from waaaay earlier and is far too major to be banking on a single bar fake out that IMO hasn't penetrated enough. Again doesn't invalidate the trade but I would simply not want to get carried away and watch out for another retest of the LLS.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,662
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:04am Nov 11, 2013 9:04am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey G, I was really hoping for a stronger close on this one. The close as is, makes it fairly vulnerable to the prior holdup (consolidation box) at the swing low. I certainly wouldn't want to long straight off the daily fake out. At best, maybe wait for a 4H confirmation of the holdup of the LLS and a good close above the very close by FTA. {image} {image} g.
EUR/GBP update

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,663
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:18am Nov 11, 2013 9:18am
Any thoughts on fake outs at the levels marked on these following 2 charts? thanx in advance for any help from the snr members.

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  • #128,664
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:33am Nov 11, 2013 9:33am
Quoting Joe trader
Any thoughts on fake outs at the levels marked on these following 2 charts? thanx in advance for any help from the snr members. {image} {image}
I like Gold.

Nu's a little shoddy for me. Although the location there is solid with a round number, former consolidation box high and the 150 ema and of course the LLS from the prior swing point. However I can't help notice how the actual support off the LLS has been more off a "zone" than a single LLS line. These are always tricky situations because a fake out close above the LLS (which is normally what we're looking for) might not be enough to confirm a clear path for buyers to get in. Clearly here, a close above the LLS isn't enough as a trade is headed straight for some irritating bar lows to the left creating traffic issues.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,665
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:15am Nov 11, 2013 10:15am
Quoting AlisonInvest
All the best to you on your birthday! Thank you so much for this group. I have learned a lot, but I still have an exceptionally long way to go. I am a very patient person -- which seems to go in my favor with Forex. However, the amount of info online (and in this group) is enormous and unwieldy. This is my first post. And it's probably the same thing you read over and over... but I'm overwhelmed and getting frustrated. There's NO WAY to swim through all the posts. I have looked at every post you recommend at the beginning of this thread -- and I...
I never read the thread from the beginning only read live posts. I couldn't follow j16 because I find difficult to read bar charts instead of candlestick charts (I can't see too well open and close on bar charts). I recommend reading the first 100 pages and then stick to Mbqb11's posts and Ghous' posts.

It will take you a while until you understand what they want to say but if you read the thread every day you will understand after some months. Put questions if you don't understand something. When drawing S/R lines only look for the very major ones in the beginning. Put yourself the question if other traders also see the S/R or if the S/R isn't obvious and other traders may not see it. If the answer is other traders may see it but others may not see it then the S/R isn't obvious and you should look for more major levels that everyone will see it. If you spot a major S/R then look for pin bars or outside bars. You should also trade into space and not into traffic (and I think this is the hardest part from this strategy, usually there is some kind of trouble area at every trade that you make).
  • #128,666
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:09am Nov 11, 2013 11:09am
Thanks Mike I think very interesting play ,and psychology


Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Bones The reason I took profit on my short near the end of the wick and not below(or in the case of usd/chf at the top of wick but not below) is the concept of filling the wick is filling where the absorbed orderflow was. So for the euro price moves down absorbs the buy orders but because of location and story we know those buys are weak. So the path of least resistance is THROUGH the wick area. But the last strong point of buying is where the wick was created(the low of that bar). So through my testing and experience on these types...
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #128,667
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:33pm Nov 11, 2013 2:33pm
How about this one ? USD/JPY Broke a trend line , with atoday's Daily candle Up bounce of the 50% Fib level , ANY IDEAS ?!!
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  • #128,668
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:47pm Nov 11, 2013 2:47pm
one of my current trades

I liked the retrace entry best on this beob with the perfect massive pivot and boxed area. I think a break entry was trickier we are right at the FTA now

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  • #128,669
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:37pm Nov 11, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Nu's a little shoddy for me. {image} g.
+1.. 365 EMA is also flowing there, 50% Fibo Level, Base Entry.
  • #128,670
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:14pm Nov 11, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting Riskee
How about this one ? USD/JPY Broke a trend line , with atoday's Daily candle Up bounce of the 50% Fib level , ANY IDEAS ?!! {image}
This one has been winding up for weeks.

Looks like it's already moving up strong.
  • #128,671
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:28pm Nov 11, 2013 7:28pm
Quoting Riskee
How about this one ? USD/JPY Broke a trend line , with atoday's Daily candle Up bounce of the 50% Fib level , ANY IDEAS ?!! {image}
Hey Riskee,
This is my chart. I don't see any good PA at this point but I like the way this pattern is winding up.
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  • #128,672
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:31pm Nov 11, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting mbqb11
one of my current trades I liked the retrace entry best on this beob with the perfect massive pivot and boxed area. I think a break entry was trickier we are right at the FTA now {image} {image}
Sweet Mike! I was watching this one for a good while but managed to miss it. Anyway it's good to see such a nice setup play out with such great PA! Those weekly candles shouldn't be over-looked!
  • #128,673
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:40pm Nov 11, 2013 7:40pm
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Hey Riskee, This is my chart. I don't see any good PA at this point but I like the way this pattern is winding up. {image}
Hi Winston,

With potential breakouts like these I'm always unsure if it has actually broken out due to the trend lines I have drawn. On mine it looks like it has broken the line, retested it and the new bar has now broken the previous one.

Is mine drawn incorrectly?

Anyone elses advice is appreciated
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  • #128,674
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:55pm Nov 11, 2013 7:55pm
Quoting Jjms
{quote} Hi Winston, With potential breakouts like these I'm always unsure if it has actually broken out due to the trend lines I have drawn. On mine it looks like it has broken the line, retested it and the new bar has now broken the previous one. Is mine drawn incorrectly? Anyone elses advice is appreciated {image}
Hey Jjims,
I like to use more recent swings for pattern formations. I'm not saying yours is wrong. But probably the most important thing here is the lack of PA on the "breakout". So looking at the options (different ways to draw the pattern withouit "curve fitting") is valid. You can draw the pattern in more than one way for sure but the PA is the the ultimate determination of a trade.
  • #128,675
  • Nov 12, 2013 12:39am Nov 12, 2013 12:39am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Valid trade, But I would be nimble footed here. The LLS is from waaaay earlier and is far too major to be banking on a single bar fake out that IMO hasn't penetrated enough. Again doesn't invalidate the trade but I would simply not want to get carried away and watch out for another retest of the LLS. g.
Are you saying that the fake out closed at 103.8 which is only slightly above the WLLS (103.65) and hence a retest is preferable to confirm the fakeout?
  • #128,676
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:04am Nov 12, 2013 1:04am
Quoting mbqb11
one of my current trades I liked the retrace entry best on this beob with the perfect massive pivot and boxed area. I think a break entry was trickier we are right at the FTA now {image} {image}
Mike,

By not taking an entry at the break of the low of the beob, don't you think that you are running into the risk that price might simply consolidate after your retrace entry. How are you able to make a decision that in this case price will not consolidate? Is it just because the beob was formed at the massive PPZ and closed below it?

N
  • #128,677
  • Nov 12, 2013 1:51am Nov 12, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} Are you saying that the fake out closed at 103.8 which is only slightly above the WLLS (103.65) and hence a retest is preferable to confirm the fakeout?
What I meant was, that that swing low is 1) too far away to the left and 2) very very significant. More like a monthly LLS than a weekly LLS.

This means that although a weekly fake out trade is valid it only means that you are expecting some really solid and accurate stuff. As in you are expecting that first fake out bar (which didn't penetrate the LLS much) to contain enough muscle to allow for a smooth ride to the upside. Again that's not totally over ruled but always a little tough and stiff to expect.

Consider a major swing high on the daily. What if you get a single bar fake out off of it on the m15? Will it work? Well it might if price gets rejected off of that 15min fake out and never looks back. But this is rare and totally normal for price to "seem hovering" in and around the HHR/LLS region on the 15min and eventually close as a daily fake out.

The fx markets aren't really bound by time frames as they are a continuous market but the time frames become important when we're talking about the depth/magnitude of a certain a swing point for instance. Generally speaking, when I see a major swing low way far back such as the one you spotted on coffee, it gives me all the reasons to move to a higher time frame that will bring the swing point closer to the current action. This time frame will always reveal a more powerful and reliable setup than trying to jump in earlier off a lower time frame where the swing point is way far off to the left.

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hope this helps.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,678
  • Nov 12, 2013 3:11am Nov 12, 2013 3:11am
Quoting ghous
{quote} What I meant was, that that swing low is 1) too far away to the left and 2) very very significant. More like a monthly LLS than a weekly LLS. This means that although a weekly fake out trade is valid it only means that you are expecting some really solid and accurate stuff. As in you are expecting that first fake out bar (which didn't penetrate the LLS much) to contain enough muscle to allow for a smooth ride to the upside. Again that's not totally over ruled but always a little tough and stiff to expect. Consider a major swing high on the...
Ghous,

Thanks for the explanation. I got carried away when I saw price close above the trendline on the daily

Neytiri
  • #128,679
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:11am Nov 12, 2013 6:11am
Hi. I have a question. There are BEEB\BUEB and BEOB\BUOB, i.e. engulfing and outside bars, I met in the Internet. Please advise the difference between them, if any. If possible - in examples. Thank you in advance.
  • #128,680
  • Nov 12, 2013 6:11am Nov 12, 2013 6:11am
Quoting Winston Reed
{quote} Hey Riskee, This is my chart. I don't see any good PA at this point but I like the way this pattern is winding up. {image}
Have not been active on FF much as of late but ive been watching this pair as well. I have my trendlines slightly different but the same concept. Would really need to see a rejection/retracement off the current trendline to confirm this pattern before looking for a break to the upside. I've had a number of PMs asking me to post up trades/setups/ideas more often, so im going to try and do so from now on

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Take care
Dan
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