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AUD/USD

  • #69,381
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:33pm Nov 10, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting zew
{quote} 0.80? Only if China debts crash economy. 0.6-0.8? QE Tapering and China debts both happen. It will but we have to wait.
0.8 sounds too low. However we may see 0.86 if we get below 9170 again.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,382
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:36pm Nov 10, 2013 11:36pm
Quoting zew
{quote} I said immigration policy make population growing. Foreign investment policy encourage cash flow into Australia. House supply is still in shortage status. Where is the bubble?
Population growth doesn't matter when they can't afford a home. This graph is just on Melbourne v median wage given a two year gap, and prices have risen since then

How in the world is 85% wage consumption on a mortgage healthy.

That's damn near 7x the average wage to the average home price. Those bullish on real estate are the same overweight on equities, I guess.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,383
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:38pm Nov 10, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Population growth doesn't matter when they can't afford a home. This graph is just on Melbourne v median wage given a two year gap, and prices have risen since then How in the world is 85% wage consumption on a mortgage healthy. {image}

I see a US like bubble of 2008 forming in australia. unemployment high. housing prices high. mining boom bust. good save australia. we don't want it down under
  • #69,384
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:43pm Nov 10, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Population growth doesn't matter when they can't afford a home. This graph is just on Melbourne v median wage given a two year gap, and prices have risen since then How in the world is 85% wage consumption on a mortgage healthy. That's damn near 7x the average wage to the average home price. Those bullish on real estate are the same overweight on equities, I guess. {image}
That is family income or single person income?

If this is single person income, family has potentially 2X buying power and 1/2 ratio in that graph.
  • #69,385
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:51pm Nov 10, 2013 11:51pm
Quoting zew
{quote} That is family income or single person income? If this is single person income, family has potentially 2X buying power and 1/2 ratio in that graph.
Single only.
But even with 2 Zew it is still expensive, and most mums don't work. RBA still have a problem on their hands and will stuggle to fix it. They drop rates more they will push the prices up as the so called immigrants will start to buy, and if they raise rates that graph will come crashing down back to affordable. So yes we are in a bubble
  • #69,386
  • Edited Nov 11, 2013 12:05am Nov 10, 2013 11:52pm | Edited Nov 11, 2013 12:05am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Population growth doesn't matter when they can't afford a home. This graph is just on Melbourne v median wage given a two year gap, and prices have risen since then How in the world is 85% wage consumption on a mortgage healthy. That's damn near 7x the average wage to the average home price. Those bullish on real estate are the same overweight on equities, I guess. {image}
Is the median in the figure and graph the median house price? That is way too expensive, about 2X the price in the US (Nationwide, the median existing single-family home price was $203,500 in the second quarter of 2013). http://www.housingwire.com/articles/...ts-8-year-high
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,387
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:57pm Nov 10, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting zew
{quote} That is family income or single person income? If this is single person income, family has potentially 2X buying power and 1/2 ratio in that graph.
Family I believe. I don't know if an average bloke would be buying a 530k home. It said that housing markets globally have risen equally with Sydney markets, and some of those markets experienced collapses. It just may be a matter of time given that the economy is not doing anything.

"Housing Affordability in Australia - Good house is hard to find' report stated that "the average house price in the capital cities is now equivalent to over seven years of average earnings; up from three in the 1950s to the early 1980s."

7x earning? Christ.

Potential Reasons:

  1. loosening of credit standards (Loan to Value Ratios LVR of 95% still available)
  2. Low interest rates from 2008 onwards (increasing borrowing capacity)
  3. Limited government release of new land (reducing supply)
  4. The average floor area of new houses increasing by up to 53.8% in the 18 years from 1984-85 to 2002-03
  5. A tax system that favours investors and existing home owners.
  6. Limited stock - there appear to be lower levels of existing property sales in 2009/2010 as compared to previous years, reducing supply.
  7. Government restrictions on the use of land preventing higher density land use.
  8. High population growth (now about double the world average - see Population growth rates chart).
  9. 2008 foreign investment rule changes for temporary visa holders
  10. Unregulated property investment seminars promoting the purchase of investment properties
  11. Speculative demand for housing due to a public perception of real estate as a sure bet
  12. Introduction by local councils of upfront infrastructure levies in the early 2000s.


Not all positive. Greenspan gave the free money away to buy homes and the US had 2008. I am not saying it will be like the US, only time will tell. But if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's probably a duck

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,388
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:57pm Nov 10, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Is the median in the figure and graph the median house price? That is way too expensive.
Yes median in Melbourne up to 2012, and I have heard prices across Australia have increased. I heard NZ is pretty horrendous as well.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,389
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:04am Nov 11, 2013 12:04am
Quoting feather
{quote} Single only. But even with 2 Zew it is still expensive, and most mums don't work. RBA still have a problem on their hands and will stuggle to fix it. They drop rates more they will push the prices up as the so called immigrants will start to buy, and if they raise rates that graph will come crashing down back to affordable. So yes we are in a bubble

That's what I'm saying. Even if a family makes 100K, that's still 5.3x larger. Look at the mortgage rates according to this:

This is for a 550,000 mortgage. On the sub-5% your looking at almost $1 million in repayment. That's absurd.

Family making $100K make's $8,333 per month.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,390
  • Edited 12:37am Nov 11, 2013 12:14am | Edited 12:37am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} That's what I'm saying. Even if a family makes 100K, that's still 5.3x larger. Look at the mortgage rates according to this: This is for a 550,000 mortgage. On the sub-5% your looking at almost $1 million in repayment. That's absurd. Family making $100K make's $8,333 per month. {image}
inflation in the US used to be 3%. half million now will worth 1 million 25 years later. But still half million median for a house is too expensive.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,391
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:25am Nov 11, 2013 12:25am
looks like the AUD could be lookin to gain some strength on the CAD and NZD
  • #69,392
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:26am Nov 11, 2013 1:26am
Weekly AuD & NzD Report PDF from WestPac Bank http://goo.gl/5oA1pc
  • #69,393
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:14am Nov 11, 2013 3:14am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I just follow the charts as they are my crystal ball lol. ....
Here is what I think but in meanwhile AUDUSD can go up and down million times.

Quoting mima
AUDUSD Daily.... I might be wrong of course
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #69,394
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:50am Nov 11, 2013 3:50am
Holding my short from 0.9440 and now waiting for clear break of 0.9350 for adding to my short.
Friends can i ask you for your intraday targets?
Is there any sooner support before 0.9280 ?

Thanks
  • #69,395
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:20am Nov 11, 2013 4:20am
I'm short euraud 1.43, I think this is where it stops and reverse !!!
  • #69,396
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:25am Nov 11, 2013 4:25am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} That's what I'm saying. Even if a family makes 100K, that's still 5.3x larger. Look at the mortgage rates according to this: This is for a 550,000 mortgage. On the sub-5% your looking at almost $1 million in repayment. That's absurd. Family making $100K make's $8,333 per month. {image}
in Sydney, income below 200k (gross) is below poverty line for family of 4.

trouble is that au property is now in 60 year upswing straight from great depression and ww2. average property upswing lasts 55 years followed by 3 decades of deleveraging.

I call optimist one who buys now and hopes to make profit.
  • #69,397
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:56am Nov 11, 2013 4:56am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} in Sydney, income below 200k (gross) is below poverty line for family of 4. trouble is that au property is now in 60 year upswing straight from great depression and ww2. average property upswing lasts 55 years followed by 3 decades of deleveraging. I call optimist one who buys now and hopes to make profit.
I think 80% of families gross income below 200k AUD
  • #69,398
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:58am Nov 11, 2013 4:58am
Short EUR/AUD at 1.4310 , hope it works
  • #69,399
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:12am Nov 11, 2013 5:12am
Quoting okanemici
I'm short euraud 1.43, I think this is where it stops and reverse !!!
Quoting zew
Short EUR/AUD at 1.4310 , hope it works
Me too. Just added at 1.4304.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,400
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:17am Nov 11, 2013 5:17am
what broker you have that u got the luxury to short a 9 pip spread pear like EUR AUD
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