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AUD/USD

  • #69,361
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:37pm Nov 10, 2013 9:37pm
Pip Anon knows his stuff. I can vouch for that. LOL.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #69,362
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:37pm Nov 10, 2013 9:37pm
hi everyone...




My take on AU.this is my favorite pair.the price is at a strong support level and waiting for a long postion.just my 2 cents.i will post my charts and my entry price right after i get in.good luck to you all
  • #69,363
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:38pm Nov 10, 2013 9:38pm
Quoting SeanyTsunami
{quote} Good analysis. I agree.
its getting quite done to the downside
  • #69,364
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:42pm Nov 10, 2013 9:42pm
Quoting smash1820
Pip Anon knows his stuff. I can vouch for that. LOL.
Thanks smash, but I think to think its cuz of our handsomely similar looks
Attached Image
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,365
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:50pm Nov 10, 2013 9:50pm
Before AUD down to 0.9280, AUD still has potential to climb 0.94 above. Before next strong NFP data release, Non-USD currency will bounce. China Third Plenum during these days will push AUD up.
  • #69,366
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:01pm Nov 10, 2013 10:01pm
downtrend intact for aud/cad. lower highs and lower lows on friday confirms the downtrend. cad data more bullish than aussie data
  • #69,367
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:17pm Nov 10, 2013 10:17pm
Quoting giveachance
downtrend intact for aud/cad. lower highs and lower lows on friday confirms the downtrend. cad data more bullish than aussie data
Potentially, I can see that. Fibs agree with trend lines. Potential move ti 61.8% but Canadian dollar momentum somewhat waning. Canadian dollar futures looking to head downward.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,368
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:21pm Nov 10, 2013 10:21pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Potentially, I can see that. Fibs agree with trend lines. Potential move ti 61.8% but Canadian dollar momentum somewhat waning. Canadian dollar futures looking to head downward. {image} {image} {image}

agreed but cad is fighting against a upward channel at 1.0500 which is tough to break and would have been in correction mode had it not been for nfp
  • #69,369
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:29pm Nov 10, 2013 10:29pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} agreed but cad is fighting against a upward channel at 1.0500 which is tough to break and would have been in correction mode had it not been for nfp
1.0500 seems to be psychological, although there is some price action resistance. Look at the dollar index, it is suck underneath the 200 EMA. Some even risk will move it in either direction.

However, in terms of USDCAD as long as US data is equally as good or better than Canada, USDCAD should continue up. US data always over shadows CAD data.

I would expect a short-term pullback just given the move in the dollar. However in regards to AUD, CAD should play out the stronger currency. Even positive Chinese data can't prop up AUD right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,370
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:31pm Nov 10, 2013 10:31pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} 1.0500 seems to be psychological, although there is some price action resistance. Look at the dollar index, it is suck underneath the 200 EMA. Some even risk will move it in either direction. However, in terms of USDCAD as long as US data is equally as good or better than Canada, USDCAD should continue up. US data always over shadows CAD data. I would expect a short-term pullback just given the move in the dollar. However in regards to AUD, CAD should play out the stronger currency. Even positive Chinese data can't prop up AUD right now....

much of it has to do with rba who are much more active in the market than japanese. i think they have started selling again. maybe they think 0.80 is more reasonable for aussie
  • #69,371
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:36pm Nov 10, 2013 10:36pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} much of it has to do with rba who are much more active in the market than japanese. i think they have started selling again. maybe they think 0.80 is more reasonable for aussie
IDK if it is the RBA. It's not that dramatic. They said the AUD was historically high at .90, I would assume they would intervene on the move to .97.

The AUD is just not really worth holding long-term. The swap has been cut in half and the economic data sucks. Just seems like traders cutting positions after the correction.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,372
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:38pm Nov 10, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} IDK if it is the RBA. It's not that dramatic. They said the AUD was historically high at .90, I would assume they would intervene on the move to .97. The AUD is just not really worth holding long-term. The swap has been cut in half and the economic data sucks. Just seems like traders cutting positions after the correction.

and there is a housing bubble in the aussie. now if rba raises rates economy cannot handle it.
  • #69,373
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:00pm Nov 10, 2013 11:00pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} and there is a housing bubble in the aussie. now if rba raises rates economy cannot handle it.
There is a housing bubble everywhere. Many US cities, London, etc. That's what low rates get ya
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,374
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:21pm Nov 10, 2013 11:21pm
Housing bubble in AU? Not really.

As long as immigration policy and foreign investment policy continue, the house price always go north. But I admit that the current price is extremely high for local first home buyer.
  • #69,375
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:25pm Nov 10, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting zew
Housing bubble in AU? Not really. As long as immigration policy and foreign investment policy continue, the house price always go north. But I admit that the current price is extremely high for local first home buyer.
does Australian government welcome foreign immigrants?
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #69,376
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:25pm Nov 10, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting zew
Housing bubble in AU? Not really. As long as immigration policy and foreign investment policy continue, the house price always go north. But I admit that the current price is extremely high for local first home buyer.
Does "always go north" not sound like a bubble to you? The thing is FDI is not happening in Australia. Australia has yet to develop an economic system outside of mining.

What always goes north, always go south.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #69,377
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:27pm Nov 10, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} much of it has to do with rba who are much more active in the market than japanese. i think they have started selling again. maybe they think 0.80 is more reasonable for aussie

0.80? Only if China debts crash economy.

0.6-0.8? QE Tapering and China debts both happen. It will but we have to wait.
  • #69,378
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:28pm Nov 10, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} does Australian government welcome foreign immigrants?
yes. They have so called "Big Australia" dream.
  • #69,379
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:32pm Nov 10, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Does "always go north" not sound like a bubble to you? The thing is FDI is not happening in Australia. Australia has yet to develop an economic system outside of mining. What always goes north, always go south.
I said immigration policy make population growing. Foreign investment policy encourage cash flow into Australia.

House supply is still in shortage status. Where is the bubble?
  • #69,380
  • Nov 10, 2013 11:32pm Nov 10, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting zew
{quote} yes. They have so called "Big Australia" dream.
question is not whether they are welcome or not. question is whether they get job or not. I think first preference is given to local aussie, then kiwi and then chinese in your country
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