Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#69,321
Nov 10, 2013 11:02am Nov 10, 2013 11:02am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting Bones

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word to the wise au is a sell no 200 pip north not at all no doji {quote} {image}

Ignored

Playing the devil's advocate here.
Definitely channel support in this area so if market is looking to buy dips, this would be one of those dips to buy.
This view is also supported by a MacD bullish divergence.

A/U Daily

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#69,322
Nov 10, 2013 11:57am Nov 10, 2013 11:57am

shellsnail
Joined Aug 2012 | Status: Trends, Levels, Confirmation, Bayes | 1,834 Posts

Quoting Bones

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ok will do just a thought if you take after break its very risky {quote}

Ignored

yes only take if I see 5 waves down

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#69,323
Nov 10, 2013 12:03pm Nov 10, 2013 12:03pm

TheTopBloke
| Joined Sep 2007 | Status: Forex God | 1,492 Posts

I love to be bullish on AUD, but I'm most concerned with Wall Street and the side effects. The last time we had a major correction the AUD dropped all the way down to approx .63. A lot of people are playing up the overbought overpriced hype on the Dow and S&P. If those crash, then most likely AUD will crash, because there will be players pulling cash out to cover losses as well as keep it on the sidelines.

Another thing to consider is the timing. I was hoping it would not happen prior to the end of the year. Other people out there are pitching the correlation between the current market and the dot com crash. The shit hit the fan March 2000, and I figure it would be interesting timing, if Mr. Chairwoman is put in place, and rather than going with the perception she is going to print above and beyond Bernanke, she goes the way of Voelker, and the shit hits the fan, March 2014.

Another factor that fits timing nicely, depending of course on whether or not you subscribe to theories of cycle. A major recession every seven years. Well it's not always perfect, but it looks nice as a theory. March 2000, 2007, March 2014. When did the shit the fan last time? Sept 2008?

The bullish trend might last a bit longer, and it's always difficult to determine the end, but with Mr. Chairwoman's profile, the previous no taper fakeout, the deteriorating stats, and the current market, things could swing dramatically downward. So I'm going to say, March 2014.

As for the latest and greatest charts, technically speaking, it does very much look like a correction, and the bullish trend will continue. Will it hit parity? I'd love to see that, but I doubt it. I think it's going to float up maybe to .97 at best.

#69,324
Nov 10, 2013 12:12pm Nov 10, 2013 12:12pm

Rtm
Joined Jan 2011 | Status: dump and pump | 4,055 Posts

CHF looking like it might be the star for next week, I am looking to short some AUDCHF.

Looking at AUDCHF you can see the major trend on the daily has been down and we just made this massive fakeout above a nice resistance level. Now I am not expecting this to be a huge move down because the pair has been making swings that have have been making new highs and high lows. But look to target 0.85-0.84 might be a logical place to take some profit off.
Cheers

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All posts are my personal opinion

#69,325
Nov 10, 2013 12:49pm Nov 10, 2013 12:49pm

Crazy-Trader
| Membership Revoked | Joined Nov 2013 | 403 Posts

Quoting Rtm

Disliked

CHF looking like it might be the star for next week, I am looking to short some AUDCHF. Looking at AUDCHF you can see the major trend on the daily has been down and we just made this massive fakeout above a nice resistance level. Now I am not expecting this to be a huge move down because the pair has been making swings that have have been making new highs and high lows. But look to target 0.85-0.84 might be a logical place to take some profit off. Cheers {image} {image}

Ignored

Never traded that pair but awesome false breakout indeed. Everyone could short blindly this pair.

SL should be above last high around 0.8760
What about TP, how to maximize profits?
Think about R:R... I would say 1:5 => This signal is probably strong!
So TP = 0.8150 area.

Ps: Only negative carry trade is annoying : (

$10K Live Account... 3 months investor testing!

#69,326
Nov 10, 2013 3:03pm Nov 10, 2013 3:03pm

Bones
Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts

Hi Pip I see the view ,not channel ,but the swing ,really I must say its not the condition of the market ,but guess that's just my view

Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} Playing the devil's advocate here. Definitely channel support in this area so if market is looking to buy dips, this would be one of those dips to buy. This view is also supported by a MacD bullish divergence. A/U Daily {image}

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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea

#69,327
Nov 10, 2013 3:05pm Nov 10, 2013 3:05pm

Bones
Joined Nov 2007 | Status: left CanaryWharf desk-tea break | 24,286 Posts

d1 looks like this to me

monthly
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post7065840

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

{quote} Playing the devil's advocate here. Definitely channel support in this area so if market is looking to buy dips, this would be one of those dips to buy. This view is also supported by a MacD bullish divergence. A/U Daily {image}

Ignored

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On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea

#69,328
Nov 10, 2013 3:13pm Nov 10, 2013 3:13pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting Bones

Disliked

d1 looks like this to me monthly http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post7065840 {quote} {image}

Ignored

I did say "devil's advocate".. Did I not?

I believe it is always wise to know what may slap you in the back of the head.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#69,329
Nov 10, 2013 4:31pm Nov 10, 2013 4:31pm

okanemici
Joined Jan 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,005 Posts

Quoting Ssm

Disliked

{quote} {image} After rejection at 1.4560, we are now with old friend at 1.4230, again previous support and resistance line. Which way now? It could be bullish and retest 1.45 level or bearish and head down to 1.4 level which it has done so in Jul. Personally, I have a small short position which I held on from 1.4440 position. Hope to see a clean break of 1.4 level in order to be convinced that this pair to stay below sub 1.4 level in the long run.

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Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} Let's see where it opens on retail platforms first. The Germans has resolved their differences regarding the banking union and that could be Euro positive.

Ignored

When it opens it is more clear now.If it drops to 1.42 and bounces from there a buy stop above 1.4230 might be the correct thing to do.Otherwise it is a sell stop 1.4190.

#69,330
Nov 10, 2013 4:47pm Nov 10, 2013 4:47pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting okanemici

Disliked

{quote} {quote} When it opens it is more clear now.If it drops to 1.42 and bounces from there a buy stop above 1.4230 might be the correct thing to do.Otherwise it is a sell stop 1.4190.

Ignored

I am targeting 1.3520

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#69,331
Nov 10, 2013 5:10pm Nov 10, 2013 5:10pm

EternalNewB
| Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Happy camper | 213 Posts

To which area would you expect AUDUSD to pull back before crumbling ? it looks like a week rebound at 0.9350

#69,332
Nov 10, 2013 5:13pm Nov 10, 2013 5:13pm

mima
| Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts

Would be nice as a start that AUDUSD drop to 0.9308...I would really appreciate that....

The Market pays you to be disciplined

#69,333
Nov 10, 2013 5:25pm Nov 10, 2013 5:25pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting EternalNewB

Disliked

To which area would you expect AUDUSD to pull back before crumbling ? it looks like a week rebound at 0.9350

Ignored

The Aussie has demand here which could take it back up to around 9420 to start. However, if we see a further USD rally today, then throw that idea under the bus.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#69,334
Nov 10, 2013 6:00pm Nov 10, 2013 6:00pm

KissFan
Joined Jan 2008 | Status: In Fibonacci We Trust | 2,397 Posts

I can't say with any confidence where Aussie is going but I have been looking at the gap from September for a few weeks now. I like the odds for a closing of it over the next few days or weeks.

K.I.S.S.

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#69,335
Nov 10, 2013 6:15pm Nov 10, 2013 6:15pm

thewriter30
| Joined May 2012 | Status: Worried | 458 Posts

Only the contrarian law, aka i will fck u all law, can bring the aussie up.... That is, what I have seen for the last 7 yrs that emptied my account.

This law consists in the market doing exactly the opposite as most of the crowd is doing (in this case shorting), touching all stops and then resume the due course (in this case meaning going up enough and then down)

how many have shorted at 9350, hey?? really? come on!! praying now to at least get out B/E? anyway,.... i hate forex

#69,336
Nov 10, 2013 6:19pm Nov 10, 2013 6:19pm