Somewhere to document my thoughts...

In general: If you have any questions, ask and you may get an answer.

Just going to use this space here to document some of my trades so that I can evaluate my own successes and mistakes better.

It is what it says - a trading journal.

I trade ALL currency pairs except gold and silver.

Method: Discretionary trading based on simple confluence, grounded in EW theory.

Currently in a couple of GBP/USD shorts.

This thing is a beast. Looking at the GBP/LFX weekly/monthly charts, I can't pinpoint whether we are in a 3 of 3 wave up or whether we have just completed a complex WXY correction with Y being a zig-zag. Both are possible, and I think the action at the moment seems to point to the second.

On a micro level,



I have this as the count, and if I am right, GBP/USD should head down from the open today without any significant retrace as it starts the wave iii down.

GBP/USD charts are a little clearer but still not much clearer. my view is that we are starting a multi-month move down, that could potentially take us down to the 1.3514 levels. By no means is this a popular view, and I don't expect anyone to agree with me, but I think I am going to trade it.

In fact I have a plan to trade it - more details when I carry the plan out, but for now, hope these open trades go in my favour further.


I can’t tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way.

EUR/USD.

If I had more margin I would definitely go into this trade as well. but let's see how things go, if my GBP/USD trade turns sour, I might switch baskets and go into EUR/USD shorts.

This is my current view for the pair:



Looking to short from the 1.35 level for long-term holding.

Other than these two main trades, the strategy for the rest of my daily trades is quite simple.

Trading hours:


30min before NY Open until 2hr30mins after open.

basically about 12:30pm-3:30pm London time.

Entries are based on confluence and EW. More in real time.

Here's how my charts look like:

NZD/USD



Will be looking for opportunities on this pair during NY session.

If price makes new low during asia session/london, will be looking to long; if price retraces will be looking to short.

CAD/JPY



Expecting a retrace on this pair during asia session. Will be looking to LONG during NY.

Some Jesse Livermore Quotes that I find particularly insightful.

1. I can’t tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way.

2. There is nothing like losing all you have in the world for teaching you what not to do.

3. All a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions.

4. It was the change in my own attitude toward the game that was of supreme importance to me. It taught me, little by little, the essential difference between betting on fluctuations and anticipating inevitable advances and declines, between gambling and speculating.

5. They say you never grow poor taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four-point profit in a bull market.

6. Where I should have made twenty thousand dollars I made two thousand. That was what my conservatism did for me.

7. After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.

8. One of the most helpful things that anybody can learn is to give up trying to catch the last eight – or the first. These two are the most expensive eights in the world. They have costs stock traders, in the aggregate, enough millions of dollars to build a concrete highway across the continent.

9. Remember that stocks are never too high for you to begin buying or too low to begin selling.

10. That was the day I remember most vividly of all the days of my life as a stock operator. It was the day when my winnings exceeded one million dollars.

11. Being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

12. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

13. Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit.

Took a UJ long.


Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

Exit UJ long.

Looking to reenter at 98.90..

added UJ chart...


All a man needs to know to make money is to appraise conditions.

A fantastic fable related to trading.

Count may be wrong. 5 waves could have been completed and this is b-wave triangle waiting to head up in C-wave.

Anyway not much profit to be taken on the long side if that is the case. Wait for price to head up for shorts or price to head down for longs.

Closed 0.5 lot of GBP/USD because analysis tells me price is heading up soon and likely going to test daily pivot.

At the rate at which UJ is developing, I expect price to set up a SHORT entry by london open, or if it fills my LONG then maybe not

ok. confluence area appeared.

daily pivot for gbp/usd is strong area for short, expect price to get there at london open.

Woke up to price stalling at an interesting level. One of the rare cases of a truncated fifth in the C wave but something felt wrong so I exited my long and switched back to 0.5 lot shorts in GBP/USD.

Time to play the waiting game.

After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.

An Update:

So it looks like the leading diagonal followed by a deep wave 2 retracement is now playing out its WAVE 3 move. Speed is of the essence here.





If we get USD strength this afternoon cable could fall through 1.59.

Opened sell limit 0.20 lots at 1.6002. #GBP/USD

1.0 extension acting as near-term resistance.

AUD/USD looking like it is running out of steam with a terminal ED as fifth of a fifth.

Buy limit 0.2 lot at 0.9352.

More expanding diagonals/ leading diagonals on GBP/LFX.

Something huge is gonna come soon!