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AUD/USD

  • #69,301
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:19am Nov 10, 2013 5:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Ken, I don't see how you arrive at that logic. Please elaborate.
Hi PipTrapper I think Euraud is a perfect short at 1.4235, what do you think ? I think the max it could go is 1.4325 I wish it open a gap up at 1.4325 I'd short it right there
  • #69,302
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:25am Nov 10, 2013 5:25am
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps78de3e2f.jpg

If we break .9390, we will see our old friend at .9330, which proven to be a strong support and resistance line way back in Jun and Sep.
Which direction will it be?
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,303
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:30am Nov 10, 2013 5:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Ken, I don't see how you arrive at that logic. Please elaborate.
He's right. I've got it going to 1.44. But probably not this year & likely to go to 1.30 first. Mongrel of a pair to trade.
Money Makes Money
  • #69,304
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:34am Nov 10, 2013 5:34am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Hi PipTrapper I think Euraud is a perfect short at 1.4235, what do you think ? I think the max it could go is 1.4325 I wish it open a gap up at 1.4325 I'd short it right there
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...psb9fc4bec.jpg



After rejection at 1.4560, we are now with old friend at 1.4230, again previous support and resistance line.
Which way now? It could be bullish and retest 1.45 level or bearish and head down to 1.4 level which it has done so in Jul.

Personally, I have a small short position which I held on from 1.4440 position. Hope to see a clean break of 1.4 level in order to be convinced that this pair to stay below sub 1.4 level in the long run.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,305
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:44am Nov 10, 2013 5:44am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Hi PipTrapper I think Euraud is a perfect short at 1.4235, what do you think ? I think the max it could go is 1.4325 I wish it open a gap up at 1.4325 I'd short it right there
Let's see where it opens on retail platforms first. The Germans has resolved their differences regarding the banking union and that could be Euro positive.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,306
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:46am Nov 10, 2013 5:46am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} He's right. I've got it going to 1.44. But probably not this year & likely to go to 1.30 first. Mongrel of a pair to trade.
If it doesn't go to 1.44 this year, then we won't see it till at least 2015.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,307
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:46am Nov 10, 2013 5:46am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} He's right. I've got it going to 1.44. But probably not this year & likely to go to 1.30 first. Mongrel of a pair to trade.
http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...pscca6bda9.jpg


If 1.3450 is not taken back, bears will remain strong and we might see a retest of 1.33 again. A break below 1.33, we might see further bear till 1.319X or even 1.311X levels.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,308
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:49am Nov 10, 2013 5:49am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} {image} If 1.3450 is not taken back, bears will remain strong and we might see a retest of 1.33 again. A break below 1.33, we might see further bear till 1.319X or even 1.311X levels.
The most likely in my opinion
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 69 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,309
  • Nov 10, 2013 5:55am Nov 10, 2013 5:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The most likely in my opinion {image}
Wonderful, there are confluence in our numbers.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,310
  • Nov 10, 2013 7:21am Nov 10, 2013 7:21am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The most likely in my opinion {image}
Definitely a strong possibility, yes. The only problem is that it might actually do something like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 69 KB
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #69,311
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:03am Nov 10, 2013 8:03am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} {image} After rejection at 1.4560, we are now with old friend at 1.4230, again previous support and resistance line. Which way now? It could be bullish and retest 1.45 level or bearish and head down to 1.4 level which it has done so in Jul. Personally, I have a small short position which I held on from 1.4440 position. Hope to see a clean break of 1.4 level in order to be convinced that this pair to stay below sub 1.4 level in the long run.
This is why EURAUD will rise higher:

http://www.myfxbook.com/files/CrazyT...Slehx3PzQb.png

1.4180 is 23% fib retracement from AD.
Weekly Pin bar rejection on multiple support's confluence area.
EURAUD is on of my favorite pair.
Your moto said your not good at Technical Analysis and as you remain bearish... that means this pair is going up 89% chance.
Watch out for a bullish gap at opening... this could be a very strong signal to confirm up trend.
$10K Live Account... 3 months investor testing!
  • #69,312
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:12am Nov 10, 2013 8:12am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Yeah I took the trade from 0.9870 & holding to 0.9570. 4H chart shows a speed bump at around 0.9740. {image}
My view is for a ranging day tomorrow but will be looking for a retracement during the day for a small stop to enter into a short position.
  • #69,313
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:15am Nov 10, 2013 8:15am
word to the wise au is a sell no 200 pip north not at all
no doji


Quoting shellsnail
Call it stop-clearing or anything - I think we see a new low briefly early in the week and this rebounds strongly by about 200 pips from that low and closes the week as a doji. trade plan: look for longs below current low. exit and reverse after up move completed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud USDw1 Spot.png Size: 28 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #69,314
  • Nov 10, 2013 8:42am Nov 10, 2013 8:42am
AUDUSD Daily....
I might be wrong of course
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 68 KB
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #69,315
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:14am Nov 10, 2013 9:14am
Quoting Crazy-Trader
{quote} This is why EURAUD will rise higher: http://www.myfxbook.com/files/CrazyT...Slehx3PzQb.png 1.4180 is 23% fib retracement from AD. Weekly Pin bar rejection on multiple support's confluence area. EURAUD is on of my favorite pair. Your moto said your not good at Technical Analysis and as you remain bearish... that means this pair is going up 89% chance. Watch out for a bullish gap at opening... this could be a very strong signal to confirm up trend.
You are right, Aud is weak, but not forgetting that Eur is weaker. My views is on the basis that Eur might continue to be weaken into the week. I do not have any position in AUDUSD at the moment because based on my chart, there is no reason for long or short at the moment, unless critical support and resistance lines are broken.

You may be right as well and that you hv that "89%" chance. Trading forex is all about taking chances my friend. Its win or lose game.


Good luck in your game.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #69,316
  • Nov 10, 2013 9:55am Nov 10, 2013 9:55am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} You are right, Aud is weak, but not forgetting that Eur is weaker. My views is on the basis that Eur might continue to be weaken into the week. I do not have any position in AUDUSD at the moment because based on my chart, there is no reason for long or short at the moment, unless critical support and resistance lines are broken. You may be right as well and that you hv that "89%" chance. Trading forex is all about taking chances my friend. Its win or lose game. Good luck in your game.
There is one thing I can't tell because that's part of my strategy sorry... but this is not right:
"Aud is weak, but not forgetting that Eur is weaker"

I apologize, I haven't told you about AUDUSD bearish outlook:

http://www.myfxbook.com/files/CrazyT...6reX9FW2xb.png


The second wrong thing is trading is not a game for me... even i see what you mean ^^

I hope this will help you to make nice pips profit for the weeks ahead.
$10K Live Account... 3 months investor testing!
  • #69,317
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:13am Nov 10, 2013 10:13am
Quoting Bones
word to the wise au is a sell no 200 pip north not at all no doji {quote} {image}
Yeah my view is CONDITIONAL on AUD/USD heading down to make new lows first once the week starts. If instead it retraces and completes correction then I expect more down.

but my sensing is that many traders are positions for an upmove from here rather than a down, so this is just for them to keep in mind cheers.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #69,318
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:28am Nov 10, 2013 10:28am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Simple, EUR will go down much faster than AUD goes down, but USD strength brings both down together.
Well glad to know that you have got all figured out with the conclusion 'Simple' New billionaire in the making.
  • #69,319
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:31am Nov 10, 2013 10:31am
ok will do just a thought if you take after break its very risky



Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Yeah my view is CONDITIONAL on AUD/USD heading down to make new lows first once the week starts. If instead it retraces and completes correction then I expect more down. but my sensing is that many traders are positions for an upmove from here rather than a down, so this is just for them to keep in mind cheers.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #69,320
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:51am Nov 10, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Definitely a strong possibility, yes. The only problem is that it might actually do something like this: {image}
That wouldn't be a problem as long as it doesn't run away up to 1.42
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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