Trading Without a StopLoss | Page 14 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

MT4 Trading without GAP and without Excel 669 replies

Trading Without a Stoploss--BHILC 52 replies

Set Order without StopLoss / TakeProfit ? 4 replies

Trading without a stoploss 53 replies

MB Trading software, how to place stoploss and target 1 reply

Attachments: Trading Without a StopLoss
Exit Attachments

Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #261
  • Nov 9, 2013 12:36pm Nov 9, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Yet you are able to predict with great accuracy the market will make a multi-year move against the other guy. Maybe you want to ask him what bet he is making. Then you take an opposite bet. It will be an easier way to make money than your 123 system.
Joe,

You are not comprehending what I am saying. Accuracy does not matter much. You could be correct 99% of the time (hypothetically) and still get your head beat in by 1 trade without a stop loss.

If I were to take the opposite side of a trader without a stop loss and I'm also trading without a stop loss, I will eventually get fried also.
  • #262
  • Nov 9, 2013 1:21pm Nov 9, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Joe, You are not comprehending what I am saying. Accuracy does not matter much. You could be correct 99% of the time (hypothetically) and still get your head beat in by 1 trade without a stop loss. If I were to take the opposite side of a trader without a stop loss and I'm also trading without a stop loss, I will eventually get fried also.
I comprehend very well. I just find your rationale confusing. On the one hand, you say the market is not predictable. On the other hand, you say the market is predictable to make a multi-year move against someone. So which is it, is the market predictable or not predictable ? If it's not predictable, then you have no basis to make a claim that the market will make a multi-year move against someone.
  • #263
  • Nov 9, 2013 2:19pm Nov 9, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Joe, You are not comprehending what I am saying. Accuracy does not matter much. You could be correct 99% of the time (hypothetically) and still get your head beat in by 1 trade without a stop loss. If I were to take the opposite side of a trader without a stop loss and I'm also trading without a stop loss, I will eventually get fried also.
Someone who are lost in his own world. Why will trading without stop loss bad ? I don't see anything wrong without stop loss.

2+2=4ex, can you show your live result that you trade with stop loss and have perform well with profits ? Will be good to support your claim
Learning to trade better
  • #264
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:05pm Nov 9, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} I comprehend very well. I just find your rationale confusing. On the one hand, you say the market is not predictable. On the other hand, you say the market is predictable to make a multi-year move against someone. So which is it, is the market predictable or not predictable ? If it's not predictable, then you have no basis to make a claim that the market will make a multi-year move against someone.
Not sure you are comprehending it well since you are asking the same question over and over again. Please keep in mind the topic of discussion is trading with a stop loss vs trading without a stop loss (and their consequences), not how predictable the market is or isn't. With that said I will still answer your question in regards to market predictability...

The market can be predictable sometimes, but not always. I will provide a well known example. Interest rates. A country's central bank has the ability to raise or lower the interest rate on government debt. Historically, the interest rate has been well correlated with that country's currency value. So where a central bank began a trend of lowering rates, you will normally find the beginning of a downward trend on the currency value (and vice versa). As reliable as this has been considered in the past, it hasn't always held true. There are instances where the "norm" doesn't play out the way it "should". It may be for a number of different reasons. Either the market doesn't agree with the central bank's decision, or maybe the market has already compensated for the change beforehand. Again, this is just one example. A fundamental example. There are many different variables a trader can analyze to base a prediction on. One thing I am certain of is that no trader can correctly predict market/price with complete accuracy over a long stretch of time. So, it is important to pull the plug and take a loss when the trade is wrong as opposed to letting it go further into loss. By taking the loss while it is small, it allows the trader to position himself/herself when a better opportunity arises AND take full advantage of it by having more margin available.
  • #265
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:22pm Nov 9, 2013 4:22pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
One thing I am certain of is that no trader can correctly predict market/price with complete accuracy over a long stretch of time. So, it is important to pull the plug and take a loss when the trade is wrong as opposed to letting it go further into loss.
If no trader can predict with accuracy over a long stretch, then how come you can predict with accuracy that a paper loss will continue over a long stretch ? Maybe it won't continue, maybe it will reverse tomorrow into a huge profit ? So cutting a loss is not the best course of action, rather it is one of the possible actions, which is potentially wrong.
  • #266
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:27pm Nov 9, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} If no trader can predict with accuracy over a long stretch, then how come you can predict with accuracy that a paper loss will continue over a long stretch ? Maybe it won't continue, maybe it will reverse tomorrow into a huge profit ? So cutting a loss is not the best course of action, rather it is one of the possible actions, which is potentially wrong.
Trends and Probabilities Joe. Study them.
  • #267
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:34pm Nov 9, 2013 4:34pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Trends and Probabilities Joe. Study them.
Are you saying trends and probabilities will predict a drawdown will continue for years ?
  • #268
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:56pm Nov 9, 2013 4:56pm
trade without stop loss is for very experienced trader, not for conservative trader.
SVT refer to mql5 link
  • #269
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:34pm Nov 9, 2013 5:34pm
Allow me to illustrate 2+2's point:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: no stop loss.jpg Size: 97 KB
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #270
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:37pm Nov 9, 2013 5:37pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} No one can predict the market correctly 100% of the time. Predicting the market correctly even 70% of the time (within a reasonable time frame) is nearly impossible. .

Predict the market need experience, but it's possible. I am also with no stoploss. (see my trade explorer).

If you the know the trend why need stop loss.

Stop loos is money for the broker.
  • #271
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:42pm Nov 9, 2013 5:42pm
Quoting scalpeur
{quote} Predict the market need experience, but it's possible. I am also with no stoploss. (see my trade explorer). If you the know the trend why need stop loss. Stop loos is money for the broker.
But, can you cope with a black swan event like the one in the chart above, should you suffer one?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #272
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:49pm Nov 9, 2013 5:49pm
If euro is 1,18 i will never take short, or is euro is 1.50 i will never take long.

If i am not sure, i go to another pair or i don't trade.
  • #273
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:14pm Nov 9, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} But, can you cope with a black swan event like the one in the chart above, should you suffer one?
Every trader has a stop-loss, and that is his margin call.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #274
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:16pm Nov 9, 2013 6:16pm
Quoting scalpeur
If euro is 1,18 i will never take short, or is euro is 1.50 i will never take long. If i am not sure, i go to another pair or i don't trade.
Clever, very clever from you. But, what if a worst case scenario, where price defies all probability and goes against you, were to happen. Certainly you consider the possibility, although you find it highly improbable. Would you eventually take the loss, or let it run?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #275
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:20pm Nov 9, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Clever, very clever from you. But, what if a worst case scenario, where price defies all probability and goes against you, were to happen. Certainly you consider the possibility, although you find it highly improbable. Would you eventually take the loss, or let it run?
think about it this way.

No stop-loss doesn't = no exit. Perhaps your exit strategy is to scale into bad trades at fixed interval maybe twice, and then try to close out all the trades at break-even? Highly possible? Or perhaps you just close out trades at BE once they start to move against you more than X amount of pips.

All these are exit strategies not using conventional stop-loss. As long as the trader tests his strategy and is taking risks that are suitable for the account/ his own risk profile then why do you need a hard stop loss in the market?

Simply put: Why use a stop-order to get out of the market when you can use a LIMIT order to get out instead? Remember a stop order always disadvantages you because it is buy high, sell low built implicitly into the trade.

Cheers.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #276
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:22pm Nov 9, 2013 6:22pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Every trader has a stop-loss, and that is his margin call.
Very well said

Personally, I wouldn't dare trading without a stop loss. Nevertheless, I'm trying to keep an open mind to what Scalpeur has to say. He seems to be doing fine without using stop loss.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #277
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:24pm Nov 9, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Very well said Personally, I wouldn't dare trading without a stop loss. Nevertheless, I'm trying to keep an open mind to what Scalpeur has to say. He seems to be doing fine without using stop loss.
I can honestly imagine, highly aggressive scalpers taking $200 accounts to $2000 quickly without any stop-loss, withdrawing and repeating. At worse, he loses margin call, at best if he has a good win rate, he can easily repeat this.

More than one way to skin the cat imo.

Although theoretically, if you can turn 200 into 2000 you can turn 20k into 200k. BUT, the psychology makes it impossible for most traders to do it lol. If we all had endowments of 10million to begin with then maybe.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #278
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:28pm Nov 9, 2013 6:28pm
theoretically, since margin call limits your downside, there is no reason why you cannot trade aggressively without a stop-loss because the upside is UNLIMITED.

but most traders fail because they equate no stop-loss = NO EXIT and they hold every loser till it kills their margin. That's not trading, that's dumping money to actual traders.

My point is: those trading with stop-loss now, do consider using LIMIT orders (take profits) to exit the market instead. Sure it might make you FEAR a bit more than price will go against you indefinitely, but depending on your strategy, that is OFTEN not the case and with a bit of research you can probably find a better exit strategy (more time consuming but may be more profitable)

Once again it depends on your opportunity cost of time. If you have a lot of time why not? Stops are for traders who just want to set something and leave it as it is. it works, but limit orders work better imo.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #279
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:33pm Nov 9, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} I can honestly imagine, highly aggressive scalpers taking $200 accounts to $2000 quickly without any stop-loss, withdrawing and repeating. At worse, he loses margin call, at best if he has a good win rate, he can easily repeat this. More than one way to skin the cat imo. Although theoretically, if you can turn 200 into 2000 you can turn 20k into 200k. BUT, the psychology makes it impossible for most traders to do it lol. If we all had endowments of 10million to begin with then maybe.
I find all of your points valid. There are indeed many ways to skin the cat. What I have trouble wrapping my mind around is how can anyone trade expecting to be right 100% of the time? Doing pre-set withdrawals (as you've suggested) is a possible answer to my doubt.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #280
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:35pm Nov 9, 2013 6:35pm
Quoting vox dei
{quote} I find all of your points valid. There are indeed many ways to skin the cat. What I have trouble wrapping my mind around is how can anyone trade expecting to be right 100% of the time? Doing pre-set withdrawals (as you've suggested) is a possible answer to my doubt.
Holy grail maybe?

Maybe they are not 100% right, but when they are wrong, they can get out at a VERY small loss or at break even consistently, whereas the upside is UNLIMITED.

Put it another way, why set a stop loss and lose that X number of pips when you could get out with no loss and protect your margin.

Depending on your strategy, I think the probability of you hitting a home run that is positive to you is MUCH MUCH higher than a bad trade that wipes out your account. Besides you are protected by margin call to the downside, and it is UNLIMITED gains to the upside. Do the math.

I personally think trading is about betting small to win big.
Build good relationships with others.
0 traders viewing now