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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,341
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:22am Nov 7, 2013 9:22am
Quoting netera
Long time no trading GJ , After i lost alot in it , I traded AUDUSD more which learned me alot and helped me resotre some of the Losses of GJ , I miss guys here , I am short now {image}
I think what i should think about now is Target !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyk-h4-exness-ltd-3.png Size: 37 KB
  • #9,342
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:29am Nov 7, 2013 10:29am
Quoting netera
{quote} I think what i should think about now is Target ! {image}
Out
  • #9,343
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:13pm Nov 7, 2013 7:13pm
Quoting Davit
Set my limit short at 159.50 Anything above 159 is detrimental for your longs.Price could drop as fast as you can take a dump. Since Oct 2013 price is roughly in 400pips range. {image}
good spot for a sell....I like...GBP/JPY is a solid indicator of global risk. And re-acts sooner than other instruments.
  • #9,344
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:24pm Nov 7, 2013 9:24pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
{quote} good spot for a sell....I like...GBP/JPY is a solid indicator of global risk. And re-acts sooner than other instruments.
ya accepted for short term. nikkei down to level 14105. EJ nice resistance. GU will follow so GJ too late but it will.
we both of them.good luck
  • #9,345
  • Nov 8, 2013 12:38am Nov 8, 2013 12:38am
has to get below 157.35 first
  • #9,346
  • Nov 8, 2013 11:02am Nov 8, 2013 11:02am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} still too early! watch for the bounce next today- wednesday! don't mind missing the first part of the move, as long as I get a good retrace entry Exit and took profits better than watch profits disappear on a more than expected retrace. euro pairs on the other hand have opportunities that are hard to come by in your own lifetime trading forex.
Patience pays off, but GBP/JPY is a bad short compared to GBP/USD.
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  • #9,347
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:52pm Nov 8, 2013 8:52pm
Quoting ninner
working on a cup formation with high handle....
I have a suspicion that you could be right.

Essentially a three wave triangle,with the final wave yet to finish, but looking at it from the cup/handle perspective, the cup may have finished 2 days ago and the handle to complete at 156.x ish (if it hasn't already)

Cup height - right side to bottom - 430 pips.

Target after break out (using this method) top TL at about 159.1 + 430pips = 163.4

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...th_handle_cont
  • #9,348
  • Nov 9, 2013 3:42am Nov 9, 2013 3:42am
Development this week put things in different light... no longer I am bearish only. Nikei made a nice bullish pin of the triangle consolidation. My view... whether we are going to trade in tight range, or price will blow heavy.
  • #9,349
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:32pm Nov 9, 2013 4:32pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} I have a suspicion that you could be right. Essentially a three wave triangle,with the final wave yet to finish, but looking at it from the cup/handle perspective, the cup may have finished 2 days ago and the handle to complete at 156.x ish (if it hasn't already) Cup height - right side to bottom - 430 pips. Target after break out (using this method) top TL at about 159.1 + 430pips = 163.4 http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...th_handle_cont

yeah still looks good to me...cup with handle are powerful patterns when they work....like anything they canfail too so we have to keep monitoring it day by day

cheers
  • #9,350
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:41pm Nov 9, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Development this week put things in different light... no longer I am bearish only. Nikei made a nice bullish pin of the triangle consolidation. My view... whether we are going to trade in tight range, or price will blow heavy.
...
thanks for that ....a pin bar is big for a Japan move, since they invented them.
  • #9,351
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:51pm Nov 9, 2013 6:51pm
My view is, ANYTHING/JPY is going to the moon soon. Just buy. even EURJPY.
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  • #9,352
  • Nov 9, 2013 7:39pm Nov 9, 2013 7:39pm
actually the EURJPY has a nice correlation the us stock market
  • #9,353
  • Nov 9, 2013 7:48pm Nov 9, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting ninner
actually the EURJPY has a nice correlation the us stock market
The S&P chart is befuddling. Two scenarios seem probable at the moment. Either we begin a huge bear market from here or we will start a REAL bull run to above 2500 levels.

But you know what they say about crazy fifth waves. If we do get there in a parabolic fashion the crash will not be pretty.

No idea which will play out, and am not sure what kind of fundamentals are supporting both either...
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  • #9,354
  • Nov 10, 2013 12:48am Nov 10, 2013 12:48am
GBP/JPY

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nov1013gjd.png Size: 105 KB


Rgds
W.W
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #9,355
  • Nov 10, 2013 1:51am Nov 10, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
GBP/JPY {image} Rgds W.W
and your point is?
  • #9,356
  • Edited 3:52am Nov 10, 2013 2:22am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting Wolf_Wicked
{quote} Probably about the same as yours Rgds W.W
Indeed, I understand.

Although I do not agree with your trendlines, for the reason that GJ has always faithfully adhered to trendlines, as opposed to Cable and some others, the issue is that the so-called pin bar on UJ should run into resistance soon and fall back to about 98.2 ish for support.

As per GU, should it fall out of 159 support, it will probably track down to 1.57. In essence, GJ may possibly have room to move down.
  • #9,357
  • Nov 10, 2013 4:10am Nov 10, 2013 4:10am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Indeed, I understand. Although I do not agree with your trendlines, for the reason that GJ has always faithfully adhered to trendlines, as opposed to Cable and some others, the issue is that the so-called pin bar on UJ should run into resistance soon and fall back to about 98.2 ish for support. As per GU, should it fall out of 159 support, it will probably track down to 1.57. In essence, GJ may possibly have room to move down.
I don't work with "shoulds" these days..

I'll post an update when/if the time is right.
My apologies I just spent a good few hours blogging up a storm and my favorite part of this excersise is when I'm all done and can share my hard work with other traders.

I have no opinion on the GBP/JPY right now other than to say it is sitting on some pretty heavy resistance at these prices, although sentiment for the GBP is more bullish than most.

The YEN on aggregate would be worth a look too but difficult for me from my phone so nothing I can offer right now
I try not to think too much on Sundays though, might catch you again in the week, might not.

G/L

rgds
W.W
Howlin' at the Moon on the Roof
  • #9,358
  • Nov 10, 2013 4:26am Nov 10, 2013 4:26am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Indeed, I understand. Although I do not agree with your trendlines, for the reason that GJ has always faithfully adhered to trendlines, as opposed to Cable and some others, the issue is that the so-called pin bar on UJ should run into resistance soon and fall back to about 98.2 ish for support. As per GU, should it fall out of 159 support, it will probably track down to 1.57. In essence, GJ may possibly have room to move down.
GBP on aggregate: seems to be suggesting third wave down.
/JPY on aggregate: suggesting third wave up.

conclusion: choppy action next week.
trade plan: stay away from GBP/JPY and if anything go long USD/JPY instead.
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  • #9,359
  • Edited 4:56am Nov 10, 2013 4:43am | Edited 4:56am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} GBP on aggregate: seems to be suggesting third wave down. /JPY on aggregate: suggesting third wave up. conclusion: choppy action next week. trade plan: stay away from GBP/JPY and if anything go long USD/JPY instead.
Cable may may be not have completed 5 waves to the top (if it's going to have 5 waves). It may well be in wave 4, with C down to 159 again and then eventually 157x (expanding triangle with 1.54 as wave 1, down for 2 at 151, wave 3 complete 1.625. then a, b, c, with completion at 1.57 (38% retracement of whole move and 38 retracement of wave 3)

UJ completing wave 3/subwave 1 shortly at about 99.4/5 then down for 2 of 3 - wave 2 already completed at 97.6
  • #9,360
  • Nov 10, 2013 4:50am Nov 10, 2013 4:50am
Quoting Mpt
{quote} Cable may may be not have completed 5 waves to the top (if it's going to have 5 waves). It may well be in wave 4, with C down to 159 again and then eventually 157x UJ completing wave 1 of 3 shortly at about 99.4/5 then down for 2 of 3
I think GBP/JPY has one more high to go, but that's only because JPY weakness might get overwhelming.

But who knows, see what the market does next week.
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