Do you believe moving average systems work? | Page 26 | Forex Factory

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Do you believe moving average systems work?

  • #501
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:32am Jul 22, 2013 9:32am
Yes... I believe in moving averages. I tried and tested moving average crossover trading. I benefited by this trading strategy and so I know seriously it works.

If I say success ratio, it would be around 75-85%.
  • #502
  • Jul 22, 2013 9:48am Jul 22, 2013 9:48am
Quoting mehulsoni
Yes... I believe in moving averages. I tried and tested moving average crossover trading. I benefited by this trading strategy and so I know seriously it works. If I say success ratio, it would be around 75-85%.
That is a good success rate but the main thing is what happens when you get a loss. <<<<< I aim this question to everyone . or is the method enough to carry the negative trade, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #503
  • Jul 22, 2013 4:49pm Jul 22, 2013 4:49pm
Quoting 12hrman
This one is not going to happen today,new new candle has open and price is still below the sma,and the 1hr chart is down but the four hr is still up for now.maybe tomorrow or it might need more time we shall see what happens.. {image}
I got in on 7-17-13 @1.31584 and right now price is at 1.31855.Go baby go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dl4.png Size: 126 KB
  • #504
  • Jul 22, 2013 5:45pm Jul 22, 2013 5:45pm
nearly a new day , lets see how the japan open does
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #505
  • Jul 23, 2013 3:52am Jul 23, 2013 3:52am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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this looked like a classic example on how my girl would of traded the e/u on the 2/20 ema.
A = hour candle closed below the 20 ema
B - the entry candle and as you can see it was BUSTED or I am sure she would of had a 20 pip stop loss anyway I traded it and still got BUSTED lol. I can trade my way out of the loss but I will ask my girl what she would of done and hopefully she will tell me lol, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #506
  • Jul 24, 2013 4:02am Jul 24, 2013 4:02am
I did a trade late yesterday using 2/20 cross on e/j and as it didn't make the required amount of pips I class this as a loss.. My girl says I should of re entered at 03-00 in the morning and this too would of been busted lol, this brings us onto uk open and up it went, girl says that level at 13193 should of been traded but I am not so sure. anyway I say I lost lol, be good
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #507
  • Jul 29, 2013 6:19am Jul 29, 2013 6:19am
I use SMA, but its delayed effect irritates me pretty much.
  • #508
  • Nov 6, 2013 10:29am Nov 6, 2013 10:29am
Interesting thread. Lots of info. Look forward to following
Best Wishes and Continued Success
Gp
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #509
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:22pm Nov 7, 2013 6:22pm
Still MA based, but don't really use as a S/R basis any more, these days I trade M5 using a 60sma for direction, if it's going up longs, then I use a 26sma with 0.1% and 0.2% Envelopes and basically go Long with 60 is up in the near the 60 to the 0.1% line, SL out to the 0.2% line.

Does it work, HELL YES, few other rules, you need some market timing and experience to time exits, so never easy but it gets you a long way there on the Entry side.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #510
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:14pm Nov 7, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting Turveyd
Still MA based, but don't really use as a S/R basis any more, these days I trade M5 using a 60sma for direction, if it's going up longs, then I use a 26sma with 0.1% and 0.2% Envelopes and basically go Long with 60 is up in the near the 60 to the 0.1% line, SL out to the 0.2% line. Does it work, HELL YES, few other rules, you need some market timing and experience to time exits, so never easy but it gets you a long way there on the Entry side.
When I first went live I used the 200 and 30 sma on the 60m TF and verified on the 30 min TF for direction and a 5 & 3 crossover for entries on the 5m. For exit I use a stochastic and 5 & 3 sma cross over. Like you a few more rules and custom indicators and that's it . I still use it if I'm sitting at the computer. When I'm not I still use the 200 and 30 ma, along with S&R, Fib and Pivot Points to preplan entry, sl, tp, exit and execution.
Nobody ever went broke closing a trade in profit
  • #511
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:18pm Nov 7, 2013 7:18pm
Quoting Turveyd
Still MA based, but don't really use as a S/R basis any more, these days I trade M5 using a 60sma for direction, if it's going up longs, then I use a 26sma with 0.1% and 0.2% Envelopes and basically go Long with 60 is up in the near the 60 to the 0.1% line, SL out to the 0.2% line. Does it work, HELL YES, few other rules, you need some market timing and experience to time exits, so never easy but it gets you a long way there on the Entry side.
Are you profitable these days? No hostility intended, you're a good guy but just wondering.
  • #512
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:16pm Nov 7, 2013 8:16pm
I use the 8 hr chart if also using a moving average.
  • #513
  • Nov 8, 2013 5:26am Nov 8, 2013 5:26am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Are you profitable these days? No hostility intended, you're a good guy but just wondering.

First week back and live using new method, +6% despite some real bad random chances, so its looking good, 60% efficent at using method live, abit more work to do, 80% would do.

Ask me again in a few weeks.


You ?
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #514
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:50am Nov 11, 2013 11:50am
To add a scientifical point of view:

They use Moving-Average-Only systems in the paper "Knowledge-Intensive Genetic Discovery in Foreign Exchange Markets", and as far as I remember they got some good results with it

But keep in mind, they are scientists and not traders...

-Darwin
  • #515
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:52pm Nov 11, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting Darwin-FX
To add a scientifical point of view: They use Moving-Average-Only systems in the paper "Knowledge-Intensive Genetic Discovery in Foreign Exchange Markets", and as far as I remember they got some good results with it But keep in mind, they are scientists and not traders... -Darwin
Trusting it enough to trade it, tried 100's of ma based systems over the years, i know then work cause i keep trading against them and losing doh!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #516
  • Nov 12, 2013 2:50am Nov 12, 2013 2:50am
Why should they not work? Every indicator is good in describing patterns. And if you define the right patterns (there is an infinite way to use MAs..) they will work
tough, some indicators are better than others to describe some patterns.

-Darwin
  • #517
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:11pm Nov 12, 2013 10:11pm
man, you sound like you sincerely know it; and i did take your words seriously.

fortunately, i'm not stupid enough to fail to do a backtest. it is in fact a very simple coding and test. it is simply a loser. i don't even bother to post the result

i tested:

eurusd, 1H timeframe, stoploss 55~75, tp varied number, 3X13 EMA, also exit on reversal signal ------ straight loser!

did i get your idea wrong?

Quoting Smi
if you add the two ema 3 x 13 , then you will see that before crossing the direction 70% will be known to you again thank you samer
  • #518
  • Nov 12, 2013 10:35pm Nov 12, 2013 10:35pm
Quoting OneMoreFloor
i'm not stupid enough to fail to do a backtest.
And every time there's a storm the bridge washes out and your normal
way of "driving" to work is gone.

So...... what does your back test really mean??
Not shit... (IMHO)

I ask..... would you buy a commercial EA based solely
on back test performance?? or " i'm not stupid enough " ??
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #519
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:05am Nov 13, 2013 9:05am
where did i mention that i would buy a EA SOLELY on backtest result???

also, if a EA cannot even pass backtests, will the EA be useful???

the backtests are not sufficient (to profitable trading), but are definitely necessary! what are you trying to say?

Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} I ask..... would you buy a commercial EA based solely on back test performance?? or " i'm not stupid enough " ??
  • #520
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:11am Nov 13, 2013 9:11am
Quoting billytt
{quote} That is a good success rate but the main thing is what happens when you get a loss. <<<<< I aim this question to everyone . or is the method enough to carry the negative trade, be good
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
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