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Sultans of Swing

  • #441
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:47am Nov 7, 2013 8:47am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I am with you on this one.. my entry was at ~895 last week
Mine was 9099
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #442
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:47am Nov 7, 2013 8:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
Added EUR/AUD short at 1.4147 SL 1.4310 Target 1.3520 RR: 3.9:1 EURAUDCALL

did u notice the drop in SP500 and the equivalent rise in eur/aud...Scary...Smells panic.

Keep praying that the SP500 won't tank, otherwise it'll hit your stop before you can say QE4

The fact that euro looked bad today will actually add fuel to the EUR/AUD upward fire should the SP500 freak out more.
  • #443
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:51am Nov 7, 2013 8:51am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} did u notice the drop in SP500 and the equivalent rise in eur/aud...Scary...Smells panic. Keep praying that the SP500 won't tank, otherwise it'll hit your stop before you can say QE4 The fact that euro looked bad today will actually add fuel to the EUR/AUD upward fire should the SP500 freak out more.
Yes I considered that, but I'm betting the SPX will not tank yet. Probably recover before end of day
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #444
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:53am Nov 7, 2013 8:53am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes I considered that, but I'm betting the SPX will not tank yet. Probably recover before end of day

twitter's gonna do the job ?


You maybe right...it's just that nov is a bad month for SP500 and we haven't witnessed any correction. Tomorrow can be key - 300 jobs and SP500 at 1000
  • #445
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:04am Nov 7, 2013 9:04am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} twitter's gonna do the job ? You maybe right...it's just that nov is a bad month for SP500 and we haven't witnessed any correction. Tomorrow can be key - 300 jobs and SP500 at 1000
Yep probably
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #446
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:49am Nov 7, 2013 10:49am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} please share! Im still holding my long ... I got in based on some numbas on daily (and H4 for execution).... well im not sure if holding is smart, I have lost a significant portion of my recent gains... but for some strange reason, I think it wants to keep going up despite the poor eco data... the down move on H4 does not look convincing to me... and on the daily, it looks like it wants to go up....

apologies if that seemed cryptic. i meant the sudden USD strength based on the US data release. Although DXY is fading below 81 by now which should sustain the move up in AUDUSD. Let's see how it rolls.
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  • #447
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:38am Nov 7, 2013 11:38am
Interesting wave count for DXY at EW Reboot:

http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.b...-was-that.html
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #448
  • Nov 7, 2013 1:50pm Nov 7, 2013 1:50pm
Quoting venzen
Interesting wave count for DXY at EW Reboot: http://elliottwave5pointzeroreboot.b...-was-that.html
He seems to be just as confused as I.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #449
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:38pm Nov 7, 2013 11:38pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} He seems to be just as confused as I.

Probably the Dollar will keep swinging wildly and everything with it. I'd prefer to see a consistent strengthening as per that count so Gold can go down and hit bottom. But "hope so" is one thing and the objective facts another: I've got 2 counts going for Gold - one strongly suggests a downtrend to a year low and the other a start to the stellar Gold 2000 bull market. Both Fib out perfectly and meet the rules and guidelines - a complete 50/50 either way! The market is in contention around Gold 1300 with massive orders dropping in during the London and NY sessions - but always a return to 1306 which is the 50% Fib of the last 2 minor waves... absolute gridlock.

Position trading that (and everything except the exotics) seems doomed to retracement
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  • #450
  • Nov 8, 2013 12:07am Nov 8, 2013 12:07am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Probably the Dollar will keep swinging wildly and everything with it. I'd prefer to see a consistent strengthening as per that count so Gold can go down and hit bottom. But "hope so" is one thing and the objective facts another: I've got 2 counts going for Gold - one strongly suggests a downtrend to a year low and the other a start to the stellar Gold 2000 bull market. Both Fib out perfectly and meet the rules and guidelines - a complete 50/50 either way! The market is in contention around Gold 1300 with massive orders dropping in during...
You have gridlock on gold because it is bound in a symmetrical triangle which is running out of room very fast.
This means we shall soon find out which count is correct.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdweekly.png Size: 59 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #451
  • Nov 8, 2013 12:23am Nov 8, 2013 12:23am
Hello Traders

Man you get the feeling this pile shit more likely

zoom back up again
  • #452
  • Edited 5:12am Nov 8, 2013 3:57am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You have gridlock on gold because it is bound in a symmetrical triangle which is running out of room very fast. This means we shall soon find out which count is correct. {image}

for sure.

and this week it's been in an expanding triangle with breakout ETA tonight!

edit: if it shoots up higher than I show in the chart, it will most likely be going up in a correction to 1350/75

M15 (ignore the inset at lower left - and apologies for the small image - must be all those miniscule waves!)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD_M15_8Nov2013.png Size: 63 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #453
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:31am Nov 11, 2013 12:31am
Central Bankers dilemma - a simple but accurate description of the present situation
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #454
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:37am Nov 11, 2013 1:37am
Quoting venzen
Central Bankers dilemma - a simple but accurate description of the present situation
Great article venzen. Thanks for sharing
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #455
  • Nov 20, 2013 7:51pm Nov 20, 2013 7:51pm
Sultans, dust off your EJ shorts - it seems to be forming an ending diagonal. Will post over the weekend.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #456
  • Nov 20, 2013 8:12pm Nov 20, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting venzen
Sultans, dust off your EJ shorts - it seems to be forming an ending diagonal. Will post over the weekend.

Gidday Venzen

You been playing in gold pen these days

Tried it once an got burned

I would like a retrace EUR/YEN

just to clear the shorts to 130

not sure now with the YEN masters throwing few trillion into the markets
  • #457
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:41am Nov 21, 2013 12:41am
Quoting venzen
Sultans, dust off your EJ shorts - it seems to be forming an ending diagonal. Will post over the weekend.
hey Venzen

thanks for the heads up bro

I am heavily short on yen exposures for about a couple of weeks now (across the board), with the largest positions being in UJ and GJ, and EJ is a second tier long position...

I am of the view that UJ's break above the 100 level is for real this time... and 2014 could bring to fruition the 110-115 levels in this pair that we heard about early on in 2013...

keeping with my macro theme of being bullish on GBP through 2014, i see GJ at astronomical levels... and cable also with a material upside bias

Essentially, for 2014, I am very bullish on USD and GBP, this has been my view for a while now, and I found out 2 days ago that BNP Paribas head of fx strategy has a similar recommendation re core positioning for their institutional clients (fwiw) this is via CNBC

hope you guys are all doing well
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #458
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:45am Nov 21, 2013 1:45am
Hi DHT and Elite,

Well, DHT, good to see ya! and Elite, yep, I focus on Gold like i'm vegan! Great to immerse myself in a singular PA and analyse it inside out and learn it's patterns and when I DO place a trade (once, max twice a week) it is a carefully considered trade for a big whack of money. SL around 200pips because Gold can be fierce with the large institutional interest. But when it moves it moves with conviction which suits my temperament and trading rhythms these days.

Yen. Funny you have this positioning, DHT. I was forced today to get out of some small GJ positions I had opened short (in a disused - OK, wrecked - account) almost 6 months ago. With GJ hitting new highs on my desktop for a few weeks now I figured "just reverse those and see what happens". So a few hours ago i went long both GJ and EJ and they're in profit already. I'm not even going to manage them and see where things stand in 3-6 months.

With the recent Bitcoin surge I started participating there again and was lucky to buy in around $530 yesterday. Price is now at $600 and it's another set-and-forget trade which is basically buy-and-hold only since shorting is not an available option.

You guys come over to the XAU & XAG thread whenevr you want - lot's of analysis and interesting types there. A guy called KiwiOZ does some flippin' amazing forecasts using his own version of DeMark method and the thread owner XTrade is well experienced in metals and plays it all on the weekly using S&R and fundamentals. I will be posting here if you're around DHT.

May the pips be with you.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #459
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:54am Nov 21, 2013 1:54am
BTW, long the Dollar...makes sense. I have some thoughts on that: the market is expecting (or being led to expect) tapering. This is strengthening the Dollar, right? However, with a failure to taper firstly in December and then again in March there could be some swings in the DXY. The threat of QE4 by year end is remote but lurks there in the future... from a Gold trading perspective there is not really a consistent correlation between DXY and XAU (although XAU/USD happens to be priced in USD) a drop in the DXY does not necessarily translate to a rise in the Gold price.

Keep an eye on Elliottwave Reboot, the guy just posted a great DXY count last weekend. He changes his count a lot, but it is for informed reasons and he certainly put's his 1 and 1's together better than me!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #460
  • Edited 7:41am Nov 21, 2013 2:07am | Edited 7:41am
Technical analysis is a fine undertaking. The mind and the external world meet and by applying our tools, our discernment and keen eyes - from chaos emerges pattern, meaning and a clearer picture. Something you can grab a hold of and say "Yes! I understand this! It has meaning!"

So in the application of our oft-undervalued science of comprehension, notice how the bottom of this wave in Gold (yellow) looks like a cat arching it's back and in Silver (left), the same bottom at the same timeframe resembles a nutsack!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold_Selection_21Nov13_17:00.png Size: 17 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
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