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AUD/USD

  • #69,201
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:19am Nov 7, 2013 11:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I think the answer to your question is the USD trading in correlation with the equity indices. It has happened many times in the last year. It's just that today was a very large move so it was more noticeable. The ECB cutting rates certainly helped.
Thank you very much , what you think about AUD today will continue down or will change its way ?
  • #69,202
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:22am Nov 7, 2013 11:22am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} what's your take on SP500 ? end of the world ?
It's starting to look a lot like Christmas. Houses closing books for the year.
Obviously it's not the case, but that's what it's looking like.

On the other hand, looking at how the Yen and Franc are being bid and how the US treasury yields are falling, it seems like a bit of risk aversion ahead of what might be a surprise NFP tomorrow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,203
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:26am Nov 7, 2013 11:26am
Quoting tarik.
{quote} Thank you very much , what you think about AUD today will continue down or will change its way ?
It's almost impossible to predict what a nervous market does just before a major risk event. Tomorrow is NFP and the consensus is for bad numbers and an uptick in unemployment.
However, with the fantastic GDP reading we got today, it's got the markets very confused... and that is why I think the equity indices are selling off... in defensive mode.

I personally feel that tomorrow's number is going to beat expectations in a very big way.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,204
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:31am Nov 7, 2013 11:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} why do you say bad AUD data. As if a miss of 9,000 jobs is bad. The unemployment data is what counts and that is effectively unchanged. 0.1% is hardly a change. It was probably 0.03% change and just tipped it over the rounding threshold. Aussie data is still doing well compared to many other countries. I think the bull still has a very good chance of making it to 9915 (maybe even parity) but it will be a hard grind for sure. After all, I cannot and will not short from these levels... not while there isn't even an attempt to re-test the broken...
I didn't believe it was bad data but the market did so I called it as bad. There should not have been any move down after AUD news yesterday. And yes, it very well be a grind up to 99 area
  • #69,205
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:41am Nov 7, 2013 11:41am
Quoting SpartanTrade
.... And yes, it very well be a grind up to 99 area

What about 0.89...before 0.99?
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #69,206
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:46am Nov 7, 2013 11:46am
Parity may still come but today even the EUR has caught a good bid and that after cutting rates whereas the AUD is languishing at its lows. That tells me the buyers are waiting for lower prices. Either that or we're in act 2 of a 3 act play - act 1: ramp the $; act 2: dump the $; act 3: buy it back furiously (except against AUDUSD) when NFPs come in amazingly strong. It's possible that this is what happens, but bonds are also catching a bid, which suggests that all is not well..unless they're all heading to bonds because the equity train is about to get derailed...it's all so bloody confusing.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #69,207
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:47am Nov 7, 2013 11:47am
Aud/NZ looks goon on the daily!!
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  • #69,208
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:47am Nov 7, 2013 11:47am
AUDUSD is at time of writing taking out the prior 3 days' lows. Not not not a good sign for bulls.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #69,209
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:51am Nov 7, 2013 11:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's starting to look a lot like Christmas. Houses closing books for the year. Obviously it's not the case, but that's what it's looking like. On the other hand, looking at how the Yen and Franc are being bid and how the US treasury yields are falling, it seems like a bit of risk aversion ahead of what might be a surprise NFP tomorrow.

surprise beat or a surprise miss ?

cause SP500 shows one but dollar shows the other
  • #69,210
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:10pm Nov 7, 2013 12:10pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} surprise beat or a surprise miss ? cause SP500 shows one but dollar shows the other
Except when you consider that everyone expects the equity rally to be killed by tapering, which will come when growth gets too good.
What happens if the thinking changes to one that says global growth is about to roll over (I have seen a credible source suggest this)? What we have right now is mediocre growth in the real world (and even disinflation in parts of Europe) and astronomical growth in the stock markets. What if even that mediocre growth disappears? There comes a point at which the markets will choose to reflect reality.
That said, it's just one scenario, but one that I like to consider because nobody else seems to be considering it. That notwithstanding, there's perhaps an equal to better chance that the payrolls could come in really high tomorrow. It's a coin flip, as it always is.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #69,211
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:16pm Nov 7, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
Aud/NZ looks goon on the daily!! {image}
...goon on daily? goon for what?
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #69,212
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:21pm Nov 7, 2013 12:21pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} surprise beat or a surprise miss ? cause SP500 shows one but dollar shows the other
Dollar flows are more related to a correction/profit taking on Draghi's surprise.
SPX losses are more related to risk aversion on NFP/Taper fears.
There is a bit of both in each though.

On another note, if SPX gets below 1740, it's gonna accelerate downwards.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,213
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:23pm Nov 7, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Except when you consider that everyone expects the equity rally to be killed by tapering, which will come when growth gets too good. What happens if the thinking changes to one that says global growth is about to roll over (I have seen a credible source suggest this)? What we have right now is mediocre growth in the real world (and even disinflation in parts of Europe) and astronomical growth in the stock markets. What if even that mediocre growth disappears? There comes a point at which the markets will choose to reflect reality. That said,...

You make a good point. But i doubt markets will choose to reflect reality any time soon. That's perhaps the biggest problem. By the looks of it, FED will always be behind the markets with it's money printing as long as either of the two scenarios occur:

1) inflation get too high...but for that to happen the U.S. needs high artificial demand which means low unemployment and good growth. (even though it won't be sustainable)
2) loss of confidence in the U.S. bond market and the dollar


As long as neither is present or at least show signs why would the majority bet against the FED ?
  • #69,214
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:30pm Nov 7, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Parity may still come but today even the EUR has caught a good bid and that after cutting rates whereas the AUD is languishing at its lows. That tells me the buyers are waiting for lower prices. Either that or we're in act 2 of a 3 act play - act 1: ramp the $; act 2: dump the $; act 3: buy it back furiously (except against AUDUSD) when NFPs come in amazingly strong. It's possible that this is what happens, but bonds are also catching a bid, which suggests that all is not well..unless they're all heading to bonds because the equity train is about...
It's not that confusing really.
Just look at it this way...
Draghi surprises the market and the dollar rallies (as expected)
Tomorrow is NFP so Dollar bulls take profit before the risk event (as expected)
When tomorrow comes:
If NFP beats the expectations, you get your act 3 and the market snaps back to reality.
If NFP misses, we get an equity rally and life goes on in Fantasy Island.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,215
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:35pm Nov 7, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting buytosell
{quote} ...goon on daily? goon for what?
Goon for this
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,216
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:37pm Nov 7, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's not that confusing really. Just look at it this way... Draghi surprises the market and the dollar rallies (as expected) Tomorrow is NFP so Dollar bulls take profit before the risk event (as expected) When tomorrow comes: If NFP beats the expectations, you get your act 3 and the market snaps back to reality. If NFP misses, we get an equity rally and life goes on in Fantasy Island.

yes....
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  • #69,217
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:41pm Nov 7, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} You make a good point. But i doubt markets will choose to reflect reality any time soon. That's perhaps the biggest problem. By the looks of it, FED will always be behind the markets with it's money printing as long as either of the two scenarios occur: 1) inflation get too high...but for that to happen the U.S. needs high artificial demand which means low unemployment and good growth. (even though it won't be sustainable) 2) loss of confidence in the U.S. bond market and the dollar As long as neither is present or at least show signs why...
It seems to me the majority of players seem to think this market can only go one way, which means the majority are *not* betting against the Fed. Quite the opposite. And the cardinal rule of the markets is that they must empty pockets as efficiently as possible at all times. I think a lot of people are thinking this is like the *run-up* to dot com all over again. What they're forgetting is that even if it is, that doesn't mean the market can't drop by 50 or 100 points in a few sessions. And if it isn't it could mean 200 points come off the markets in a few weeks.
I have no idea which will happen. I keep seeing contradictory reports on positioning: hedgie shorts at record, but margin debt at record, AAII %bullish very high, etc etc.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #69,218
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:42pm Nov 7, 2013 12:42pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
AUDUSD is at time of writing taking out the prior 3 days' lows. Not not not a good sign for bulls.
I see only 2 previous day lows taken out on my charts
  • #69,219
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:44pm Nov 7, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It's not that confusing really. Just look at it this way... Draghi surprises the market and the dollar rallies (as expected) Tomorrow is NFP so Dollar bulls take profit before the risk event (as expected) When tomorrow comes: If NFP beats the expectations, you get your act 3 and the market snaps back to reality. If NFP misses, we get an equity rally and life goes on in Fantasy Island.
Nope you've missed the third possibility: NFP misses and equities don't rally. But they could rally short-term because we're down so heavy today but then they could resume the sell off again next week. I.e. the third possibility is: you can only have an incredibly strong equity bull coincident with by mediocre profit growth and zero or even negative revenue growth for so long. No crystal ball here, but I'm saving some ammo for a snapback tomorrow. Technical damage is done IMO and I think there's more to come maybe next week even if tomorrow we see a risk rally.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #69,220
  • Nov 7, 2013 12:46pm Nov 7, 2013 12:46pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} yes.... {image}


Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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