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AUD/USD

  • #69,181
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:44am Nov 7, 2013 7:44am
Quoting Mark up
Evening Pip Trapper, The data here in AU is some what mmmmmmmmmmmm, rounded down. You only have to work more than about 15 hours a week to be employed. The feeling on the street is a lot more are under employed than unemployed.
Sounds like the USA then.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,182
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:45am Nov 7, 2013 7:45am
Earlier I have seen many traders losing their account by buying Yen. They started fight against BOJ and the result was worse. The only way to buy Yen is the weakness of other currency. I think EJ and AJ may be good for short now. Same thinking I am feeling now to AU. Here RBA wants lower rate. Atm expecting parity is understanding more than RBA and fight against them .
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #69,183
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:46am Nov 7, 2013 7:46am
Quoting Mark up
{quote} Well Done Pip Trapper, Bi lingual or bable fish?? well done anyway. and yes the translation makes sense to me also. cool. Mark up.
It's easy. First I do a Google translate, and then I correct it for grammatical and structural errors.

Here is the raw translation...
China's current economic and very high local debt has been unable to in the past from the Australian iron ore and coal, a large-scale imports.
Australia can not sustain past high export commodity prices, the trend of gradual decline from the peak can not support the AU to reach 1:1 or even higher rates.

Of course, if AU can reach 1:1, this will be a big surprise, an excellent short opportunities. China trade has slipped to contribute 1% of gdp, which for developing countries is extremely unusual. Next year Chinese local government debt and the dollar exit qe, double-crowding, high short AUD for able, is the excess profits.

I do not think AU $ 0.98 and can go higher, but I was very keen to higher the better, because bringing an excellent short opportunities.

and here is my edited version
China's current economic conditions and very high local debt have been unable to sustain large scale imports of Australian iron ore and coal.

Australia can not sustain past high export commodity prices. The trend of gradual decline from the peak can not support the AU to reach parity or even higher rates.

Of course, if AU can reach parity, this will be a big surprise, an excellent short opportunity. China trade has slipped to contribute 1% of GDP, which for developing countries is extremely unusual. Next year Chinese local government debt and the Fed QE exit will deliver a double whammy and enable a high profit short for AUD.

I do not think AU $ 0.98 or higher is possible, but I will be very keen to see it as the higher the better, because it will bring an excellent short opportunity
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,184
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:49am Nov 7, 2013 7:49am
Not holding any positions on this pair but still watching it.... here is some info on the Australian employment data... it was pretty bad as you can see

Australian October employment report highlights:

  1. Prior reading was +9.1K
  2. Unemployment rate 5.7%, as expected vs 5.6% prior
  3. Full-time jobs -27.9K
  4. Part-time jobs +28.9K
  5. Participation rate 64.8% vs 64.9% expected

  • #69,185
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:51am Nov 7, 2013 7:51am
Quoting wolve
Not holding any positions on this pair but still watching it.... here is some info on the Australian employment data... it was pretty bad as you can see Australian October employment report highlights: Prior reading was +9.1K Unemployment rate 5.7%, as expected vs 5.6% prior Full-time jobs -27.9K Part-time jobs +28.9K Participation rate 64.8% vs 64.9% expected
I agree it's not good, but it's hardly a trend changer.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,186
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:51am Nov 7, 2013 7:51am
Quoting fxlover11
Earlier I have seen many traders losing their account by buying Yen. They started fight against BOJ and the result was worse. The only way to buy Yen is the weakness of other currency. I think EJ and AJ may be good for short now. Same thinking I am feeling now to AU. Here RBA wants lower rate. Atm expecting parity is understanding more than RBA and fight against them .
FX lover,

yes, Mr. Stevens (RBA) is not happy with the high AUD. He wants it lower so he won't be forced to lower interest rates and push the housing up.
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #69,187
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:57am Nov 7, 2013 7:57am
Quoting wolve
Not holding any positions on this pair but still watching it.... here is some info on the Australian employment data... it was pretty bad as you can see Australian October employment report highlights: Prior reading was +9.1K Unemployment rate 5.7%, as expected vs 5.6% prior Full-time jobs -27.9K Part-time jobs +28.9K Participation rate 64.8% vs 64.9% expected

well, I have witnessed at least 3,000 people loss there jobs in the mining industry in the past few months in my little area.
What is more alarming is the closing down of small towns and industry in Country AU.
We had a good thing going, but as usual some people tried to ride it to hard and frightened of big business.
The four of the major mining companies here in AU, have put on hold or cancelled Billions of dollars worth of major projects.
Its the worst I ahve seen in 20 years in my area.
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #69,188
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:39am Nov 7, 2013 8:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Here you go ....

Thank you ...That was easy ....Difficulty comes with interpretation....
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #69,189
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:42am Nov 7, 2013 8:42am
Added EUR/AUD short at 1.4147
SL 1.4310
Target 1.3520
RR: 3.9:1

EURAUDCALL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,190
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:45am Nov 7, 2013 8:45am
Quoting buytosell
{quote} Thank you ...That was easy ....Difficulty comes with interpretation....
Here you go... to get started.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf VSA BASICS.pdf   665 KB | 369 downloads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,191
  • Nov 7, 2013 8:52am Nov 7, 2013 8:52am
Quoting PipTrapper
Added EUR/AUD short at 1.4147 SL 1.4310 Target 1.3520 RR: 3.9:1 EURAUDCALL
Followed u
  • #69,192
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:08am Nov 7, 2013 9:08am
Quoting umair55
{quote} Followed u
I hope you have your own reasons for taking the trade.
This trade for me is like a hedging position and there is no technical or fundamental reason that provides for high probabilities in this trade right now. Tomorrow after NFP, the story may change.
Remember that I already took huge profits off this trade a few days ago and now I am well in the green. If my SL is triggered, I am still in big profits.
Make sure you use small lot size
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,193
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:22am Nov 7, 2013 9:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I hope you have your own reasons for taking the trade. This trade for me is like a hedging position and there is no technical or fundamental reason that provides for high probabilities in this trade right now. Tomorrow after NFP, the story may change. Remember that I already took huge profits off this trade a few days ago and now I am well in the green. If my SL is triggered, I am still in big profits. Make sure you use small lot size
Correct me if I'm wrong but is this a cup and handle formation on NZDUSD?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD.png Size: 128 KB
  • #69,194
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:29am Nov 7, 2013 9:29am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Correct me if I'm wrong but is this a cup and handle formation on NZDUSD? {image}

The right side of the cup is a bit low (usually 88.6% of the right side) and the handle is a bit malformed.... but it could develop into one.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,195
  • Nov 7, 2013 9:48am Nov 7, 2013 9:48am
Please anybody explain to my why AUD Index moving like USD Index ? USD up= AUD up , USD down= AUD down ?
  • #69,196
  • Nov 7, 2013 10:33am Nov 7, 2013 10:33am
Quoting tarik.
Please anybody explain to my why AUD Index moving like USD Index ? USD up= AUD up , USD down= AUD down ?
Can you show in a chart?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,197
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:06am Nov 7, 2013 11:06am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Can you show in a chart?

This is the chart, please I need to understand , always USD X AUD why today =
BR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unbenannt.JPG Size: 122 KB
  • #69,198
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:09am Nov 7, 2013 11:09am
Quoting tarik.
{quote} This is the chart, please I need to understand , always USD X AUD why today = BR {image}
I think the answer to your question is the USD trading in correlation with the equity indices. It has happened many times in the last year. It's just that today was a very large move so it was more noticeable. The ECB cutting rates certainly helped.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,199
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:13am Nov 7, 2013 11:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I think the answer to your question is the USD trading in correlation with the equity indices. It has happened many times in the last year. It's just that today was a very large move so it was more noticeable. The ECB cutting rates certainly helped.

what's your take on SP500 ? end of the world ?
  • #69,200
  • Nov 7, 2013 11:14am Nov 7, 2013 11:14am
Flipped short on AUDUSD (well, more short than long via options trades). It's clearly struggling. If equities get ramped tomorrow on NFPs (whether they be strong, weak, or who cares, they have their playbook no doubt) to take out shorts AUDUSD might also offer a decent pullback short opportunity.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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