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Trading Without a StopLoss

  • #201
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:47pm Nov 4, 2013 2:47pm
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Thanks for your wish. A 1000 pip move against me can't take me out. When it comes to successful trading for me, it's all technique, technique, technique. I am not convinced anyone even slightly experienced would risk it all. Real trading isn't like casino, you know ? It's more than just putting down a bet. You have to work it, just like if you were running a market stall buying and selling fruit and vegetables. That would be real trading. If you are putting down bets casino style, that's gambling. In that case, stop losses will only...
If it is your style then good for you.

I only hope the fruits and vegetables on your market stall have not got all rotten while you were insisting on your terms and refusing to discount in order to move the merchandise. You must have gotten some of the best super GMO fruits and vegetables on the stall.
  • #202
  • Nov 4, 2013 3:17pm Nov 4, 2013 3:17pm
There're more than one way to manage your risk.

If you do your homework, and not trade against potential 3rd waves, you can survive fine with some good risk management (manual exits) and without stop-losses.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #203
  • Nov 4, 2013 4:33pm Nov 4, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting Kyle_Vee
.....how do you correctly calculate how many lots to trade without a SL? How can you risk 2%, 10%, 50% of your account when you don't know how far you are willing to let it go against you?....
they don't.
trader with no sl usually use small lot, and it may takes month to build up loss of 30%-DD
some will use positive swap as counter because some pair still have 1 pip /day = 360 pip /year. if yearly movement approx 4k pip => get 9% bonus room to breath.
if averaging way down there, they may need 50% retrace to break even, thus 50% fibo is their life line. if they bail out at that point, with swap = 9% profit
compare to 2.5% bank interest. it is good enough.
--
or we can stare the graph all day long and close it when signal comes, and then calculate how many % that have lost.

been there, but can't done that because my mentality is not strong enough yet
  • #204
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:38am Nov 5, 2013 1:38am
Quoting Samer1970
{quote} hi refer to ssii here in ff and you will see that i am trading with a success of 97% without stop loss simple strategy/samer00000 can any one tell me what is this ?? why the line of the candle gone crazy to south in one hour and returned back while the market is going to close for weekend ? why ? this is a good example for stop loss hunting........ Attached Image (click to enlarge) {image} http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=1304513&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1383339004...
If you have a 97% win rate then you are trading with a stop loss. Trading with absolutely no stop loss would have a win rate of 100% (assuming you never get margin called).

I'm not going to debate whether someone could be long term profitable trading without a stop loss. It can be done, mathematically speaking. The problem is that you have to trade such miniscule position sizes (to withstand a potential severe drawdown) that is it really worth the time invested? In my opinion, if you are going to trade without a stop loss you might as well buy bonds or something that pays fixed returns. It would be safer and you won't have to bother with going on a computer to click buy or sell. You might even save on your electricity bill since you can keep your computer turned off .

On the otherhand, if you use stops you are able to reposition yourself quickly with the freed up margin. As you churn out profit at a quicker rate, you will also be able to compound those profits. Ultimately you can make much more money using stop losses if you know how to.
  • #205
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:02am Nov 5, 2013 2:02am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I'm not going to debate whether someone could be long term profitable trading without a stop loss. It can be done, mathematically speaking. The problem is that you have to trade such miniscule position sizes (to withstand a potential severe drawdown) that is it really worth the time invested? On the otherhand, if you use stops you are able to reposition yourself quickly with the freed up margin. As you churn out profit at a quicker rate, you will also be able to compound those profits. Ultimately you can make much more money using stop losses...
Very well put. Practically, the only way to make a long term living income out of trading without a stop is if you start with a substantial lump of money (for argument sake, let's say $100,000) and trade in mini-lots. That way, by trading in the longer timeframes of (again, say daily charts) and seeking 100, 200, 300 pip winners you'll gain by picking up small but accumulating sums when your target is hit.

If you trade $1 a pip with a $100,000 fund the chances of being hit with a margin call are extremely low. But of course there's risk even in this approach - however unlikely, you could still be on the wrong side of a black swan event. Are you prepared to risk your $100,000 on such an event? The danger of such an approach to trading is that you're at risk of being sloppy and not researching your trades properly, always in the knowledge that the market will eventually turn in your favour and hit your target.

The case for trading without a stop loss is that psychologically you're highly unlikely ever to be "wrong", although it may take months or even years for you to be "right", as the market trades 100's or even 1000's of pips away from your target.

More likely there's a case for using this methodology on one account, and trading with stops on another. I suspect many who try trading without a stop loss will be trading with a much smaller starting bank, but still wanting huge and quick growth, in which case one day, maybe not soon, but eventually they'll get a margin call.

So if you're going to trade without a stop loss, proceed with great caution, and know the risks.
  • #206
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:31am Nov 5, 2013 2:31am
0 SL is better
  • #207
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:32am Nov 5, 2013 2:32am
I seem to be able to consistently make 30% R.O.I. And I am very happy with that. As long as this continues, so will I.
One absolute necessity I think: You have to consistently trade one side of a pair. You have to correctly pick the long-term direction that pair is going.
That takes study.
A helpful thing pick two pairs that largely correlate with each other. (Their charts should look pretty similar) (there should be some sort of reason why they might correlate). (There should a reason to take one side of one pair and the other side of the other). Then, in general, when the market moves against you in one pair, It moves for you in the other. (Of course, if you pick correctly it will move for you frequently in Both!)

What helps me is the idea of taking profits early and often. If your pair moves into profit, take the profit and get back in. This won't work very well if you use stop losses. If I have real confidence in a move, I get in before I take my profit.

I trade three pairs and they are quite enough to keep me mildly entertained without getting confused. MY charts are full of buy stops on one pair, and sell stops on two others. My statements look like I am scalping except that I seem to be fantastically successful.

I watch the balance of commitment between the three pairs. On occasion, usually around tax time, I take a loss. The tax code then partially subsidizes my loss.

I do not do this very much any more. Every time I take a loss, I find a short time later it was a mistake.

My oldest trade that I am carrying is from May. It is pretty far out there, but has been farther.

The amount of "debt" I am carrying in terms of trades not closed, has been steadily decreasing as my balance has increased. As long as it does that , I am good.

I do not need the money I trade with. Anybody who does that is asking for a tension filled, unhappy life.

See you next year, if you are still around
  • #208
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:51am Nov 5, 2013 2:51am
Quoting Mingary
0 SL is better
Okay. Remember to ask yourself if it is better when you are thousands of pips in drawdown and looking at multiple years to reach breakeven.
  • #209
  • Nov 5, 2013 2:58am Nov 5, 2013 2:58am
One MUST consider that some drastic fundamental changes. Remember EURYEN was trading at 170 for example. Could have a long there. Point is, in a years time it could be at 170 again,or back at 100 nobody knows
Even the worst trade can close with profit. Just give it time.
  • #210
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:17am Nov 5, 2013 3:17am
Quoting Rap Skallion
I seem to be able to consistently make 30% R.O.I. And I am very happy with that. As long as this continues, so will I. One absolute necessity I think: You have to consistently trade one side of a pair. You have to correctly pick the long-term direction that pair is going. That takes study. A helpful thing pick two pairs that largely correlate with each other. (Their charts should look pretty similar) (there should be some sort of reason why they might correlate). (There should a reason to take one side of one pair and the other side of the other)....
It's truly good to see you have been successful up to this point. Congratulations. Perhaps you have exclusive information which prevents you from ever picking the wrong direction (I don't know). If you don't have some special or insider type information, then I can assure you that someday you will go into deep drawdown and you can just as easily go -30% (or very easily worse) without a stop loss. You don't even have to be an experienced trader to understand that. It's simple mathematical logic. If you have an open end on loss, you will some day go into deep drawdown. The drawdown could take years to recover from - even with taking small profits along the way. And those little trades you are trying to make small profits on can also go against you. Not only will they increase your loss as your now larger position continues into drawdown, but they also exponentially reduce your available margin. Even with positive swap it may take years to get back to breakeven or eek out a small profit. No stop loss is a suckers trap. The only reason you don't see that is because you haven't gotten burned yet.

As I stated in a previous post on this thread, I am not debating that you could eventually be profitable long-term by trading without a stop loss. That is also mathematically possible. However, why would you spend years to make pennies on the dollars? You might as well go buy bonds and live without the "tension", as you put it, or without the hassle of having to enter trades.
  • #211
  • Nov 5, 2013 3:27am Nov 5, 2013 3:27am
Quoting primestop
{quote} Very well put. Practically, the only way to make a long term living income out of trading without a stop is if you start with a substantial lump of money (for argument sake, let's say $100,000) and trade in mini-lots. That way, by trading in the longer timeframes of (again, say daily charts) and seeking 100, 200, 300 pip winners you'll gain by picking up small but accumulating sums when your target is hit. If you trade $1 a pip with a $100,000 fund the chances of being hit with a margin call are extremely low. But of course there's risk...
Very well said
  • #212
  • Edited 4:06am Nov 5, 2013 3:38am | Edited 4:06am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Okay. Remember to ask yourself if it is better when you are thousands of pips in drawdown and looking at multiple years to reach breakeven.
I did not say NO stop loss is better.
I meant 0 SL.
Stop loss at zero ==> zero loss i.e. at break even
Stop loss at BE as soon as possible
What constitutes "as soon as possible" is important (:
  • #213
  • Nov 5, 2013 4:20am Nov 5, 2013 4:20am
the best trading ever without sl unless u trade in a trend u must put it on
  • #214
  • Nov 5, 2013 6:16am Nov 5, 2013 6:16am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Okay. Remember to ask yourself if it is better when you are thousands of pips in drawdown and looking at multiple years to reach breakeven.
This (and other comments by other traders, are wise savvy and correct). This is what I risk. I am not at break even right now, though I am approaching it, and have been there several times before.


This is the high risk end of my investments. Here is where I throw money away and forget about it, essentially.

There are nice accounts at Vanguard which produce pretty decent returns, and Even money market accounts will produce better results than a savings passbook or CD at your local bank.

The forex is a high risk market, whether or not you use stoplosses.

Do remember the drawdown is supported by my broker. It is not mine until I choose to buy it. Even then the taxman helps me.

The key is good choice of pairs, otherwise you are doomed without a stoploss.

The sudden snap up in the aussie was not predicted by any news (they were looking down. It surprised me, too, but it did not surprise my buy stops....
which I could not do with stop losses in place.

Just sayin'
  • #215
  • Nov 7, 2013 2:19am Nov 7, 2013 2:19am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} if you have a 97% win rate then you are trading with a stop loss. Trading with absolutely no stop loss would have a win rate of 100% (assuming you never get margin called). I'm not going to debate whether someone could be long term profitable trading without a stop loss. It can be done, mathematically speaking. The problem is that you have to trade such miniscule position sizes (to withstand a potential severe drawdown) that is it really worth the time invested? In my opinion, if you are going to trade without a stop loss you might as well...

hi

i will post here a copy of my draw down, you will be really surprised as it is opposite what you are saying.

i do not use stop lose in my strategy ssii - never.

i believe that stop loss is created to make you to lose your money because i have face it in one of my actual accounts... It was like playing catch me if you can, i open long it goes short then booom, then i open short, ohhh it goes long then boom loooooseeee , then from that date i do not use the sl.

no stop loss at all...

case 1 : Closed deals
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 35 KB


case 2 : Still opened deals
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 33 KB


the performance curve for my strategy ssii
Attached Image


draw down is 0.59% at which it is very low
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 54 KB
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #216
  • Nov 7, 2013 2:31am Nov 7, 2013 2:31am
SL directly makes money like ABS brakes-break
this is unbelievable function can you imagine life without SL
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #217
  • Nov 7, 2013 2:40am Nov 7, 2013 2:40am
Quoting Suffo
SL directly makes money like ABS brakes-break this is unbelievable function can you imagine life without SL
yes i can .
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #218
  • Edited 2:58am Nov 7, 2013 2:45am | Edited 2:58am
but what if.....you are dead wrong
what happens then-do you disappear to outer space?
With a good book and quality paper you can fine wipe your ass.
  • #219
  • Nov 7, 2013 2:47am Nov 7, 2013 2:47am
Quoting shellsnail
There're more than one way to manage your risk. If you do your homework, and not trade against potential 3rd waves, you can survive fine with some good risk management (manual exits) and without stop-losses.
wise - thank you
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
  • #220
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:18am Nov 7, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Suffo
but what if.....you are dead wrong what happens then-do you disappear to outer space?

my strategy is to keep 40% of my balance for protection my deals, i buy from daily lowest bottom charts for the the last three years or four or ten, and i sell from the highest top of the daily chart with the +ve swap for either cases.

the swap will begin to protect your deals from one side day after day and there will be a time the swap value is more than the take profit itdelf , and the location of the trade will minimize the floating loss if happened , and the 40% of my account

all in all: if you have GOOD M.M. then you DO NOT NEED STOP LOSS AT ALL......
GUYS BE AWARE FROM HUNTING YOUR STOP LOSSES BY YOUR BROKER & BY "GHOSTS"
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