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NZD/USD

  • #2,501
  • Oct 28, 2013 9:59pm Oct 28, 2013 9:59pm
Quoting Dano12
{image}
all your indies are south and the PA as well. Looks like a buy with a decent stop to me.
IMO.
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #2,502
  • Edited Oct 29, 2013 10:20am Oct 28, 2013 10:13pm | Edited Oct 29, 2013 10:20am
Economics 101

One thing about export/import and its relationship with currency; Since kiwi GDP is largely based on trade balance ($$exported - $$imported)

If kiwi currency is too high, New zealand's product will be exported in a higher price, but at the same time people from other countries will find their products too expensive and hence buy lesser from them.

Vice versa, if the currency is too low, their product will be exported at lower price, but at the same time people from other countries will find their products cheap and hence buy lmore from them.

The overall $$export is actually still base on the simple supple and demand graph, and the 'price' on the graph is their currency.

So it doesn't mean that an appreciation or depreciation is definitely better. It depends on demand and supply.

One thing is more straightforward though. When the interest drops you can definitely expect the currency to go down.

In fact interest rate is one of the best tools for government to appreciate/depreciation their currency in this free market
  • #2,503
  • Oct 28, 2013 11:11pm Oct 28, 2013 11:11pm
Quoting diediex
Economics 101 One thing about export/import and its relationship with currency; Since kiwi GDP is largely based on trade balance ($$exported - $$imported) If kiwi currency is too high, New zealand's product will be exported in a higher price, but at the same time people from other countries will find their products too expensive and hence buy lesser from them. Vice versa, if the currency is too low, their product will be exported at lower price, but at the same time people from other countries will find their products cheap and hence buy lmore from...
Great spec. thanks!
Outcome is not important at all, but correct technique is what only matters
  • #2,504
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:51pm Oct 30, 2013 2:51pm
ANZ OCR Preview:

SUMMARY

Another “no change” decision is a given for Thursday’s RBNZ OCR Review. The economy is strengthening and this is starting to flow through into core inflation. However, a moderate inflation backdrop, wobbly global scene, concern over the high NZD and signs of greater traction from prudential policy measures are acting to push out the profile of eventual OCR tightening relative to what was flagged in September. The message will still be that the OCR is moving up, but uncertainty surrounding the timing is greater and we expect the text to reflect this.

NO NEED TO HURRY

The evolution of domestic data since the

September MPS has been largely in line with RBNZ projections. The starting points for economic activity (slightly weaker) and inflation (slightly stronger) were close to forecast. Recent published data and more forward-looking indicators are pointing to a strengthening in domestic momentum, with annual growth lifting to around 3 percent in the September quarter. Confidence gauges and financial conditions are flagging the potential for 4 percent plus growth by early 2014, consistent with the September MPS assessment of strengthening activity into 2014.

The global scene remains uneven, but weaker on balance than the September MPS. Momentum in the Chinese economy is picking up, and prospects for the Australian and European economies are brightening. However, the fiasco over the US Government partial shutdown is likely to keep the global recovery on tenterhooks for a while yet. The shutdown will add volatility to the data, making it more difficult to discern the state of the US economy. The RBNZ are likely to tread cautiously here.

Two major developments argue for more caution within the RBNZ’s communications.

 The currency is more than 2 percent above the level projected in the September MPS. It’s not just high but once again outright overvalued. With other central banks promising low rates for the foreseeable future, the slightest whiff of something interest rate positive turbo-charges the local currency. A lower currency was a major reason behind a higher 90-day profile in the September MPS: all else equal a higher currency should now work in reverse.

 High-LVR lending restrictions are biting. It’s still anecdotal and slow to appear in the hard data, but we suspect the RBNZ will be very pleased with how effective their ancillary policy instrument is proving to be. The MPS judgement was that high-LVR lending restrictions would knock 2.5 percent off house price inflation, with the resulting dampening in household consumption expenditure equivalent to about 30bps of OCR tightening. This looks light.

We expect the Bank to continue to have a reasonable degree of comfort over the inflation outlook. Both headline and core inflation measures, while rising, remain below the inflation target midpoint. The RBNZ would have been reassured by the moderation in quarterly construction cost inflation, although pricing pressures from this source will remain on the RBNZ watch-list. Benign wage inflation and the high NZD are likely to provide further reassurance that the inflation genie remains in the bottle.

All this adds up to a delicate balancing act, but let’s not forget the big picture: the NZ economy is improving and doing well. That means the bias is for inflation and interest rates to move up. That’s still a 2014 story and will remain so within the RBNZ’s forecasts. Conjecture will continue to surround the exact timing and speed of policy stimulus removal.

We expect the usual suspects to appear in the text. Global growth is expected to remain moderate. The NZD is overvalued and is an obstacle to the wider tradable sector. The economy is strengthening but the mix of domestic growth is expected to remain uneven. The strengthening in domestic demand is broadening beyond the Canterbury rebuild and increased activity from interest rate-sensitive pockets. Fiscal consolidation will weigh on aggregate demand. The labour market is recovering. The RBNZ will no doubt reiterate that housing demand continues to outpace supply. This places the onus on the supply side to step up, and reduce the extent of adjustment needed from the demand side. Inflation will still be projected to rise to the mid-point of the 1 to 3 percent target band as pressures on capacity lift.

The main shift in tone we’ll be looking for is more conditionality surrounding the central scenario – in effect more balance between the positives and negatives. The September MPS was probably skewed too far to one side of the ledger. We expect the October Review to come through more balanced. In a world where forward guidance as to future monetary policy settings is now common-place – the RBNZ has been doing it for years via their projections – such conditionality and flexibility takes on increased importance.

Conditionality acknowledged, we’re still looking for the OCR to nudge up over 2014. Timing is still open to some conjecture – we’re picking March still – but we are steadfast in our view that the OCR’s journey back to more neutral territory will be a lengthy, stop-start affair.
  • #2,505
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:46pm Nov 1, 2013 5:46pm
I think any word is useless. I leave you to draw the conclusions by yourself:

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Buy when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying !
  • #2,506
  • Nov 3, 2013 8:31pm Nov 3, 2013 8:31pm
Caught a lil bounce
  • #2,507
  • Nov 5, 2013 7:30pm Nov 5, 2013 7:30pm
nice to short again 8365. tp1 832 tp2 828
  • #2,508
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:12pm Nov 5, 2013 9:12pm
Short 8376
  • #2,509
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:17pm Nov 5, 2013 9:17pm
Quoting khol_hands
nice to short again 8365. tp1 832 tp2 828
added short tl H1 8382
  • #2,510
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:37pm Nov 5, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting khol_hands
{quote} added short tl H1 8382

agreed. resistance at around current price 838XX.

should see a short from here =)
  • #2,511
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:13pm Nov 5, 2013 10:13pm
closed long position

open :- 0.8320 closed at 0.8390.
  • #2,512
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:44pm Nov 5, 2013 10:44pm
Quoting king_ariff
closed long position open :- 0.8320 closed at 0.8390.
trade well
  • #2,513
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:22pm Nov 6, 2013 1:22pm
Short limit at 85
no need to rush.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,514
  • Nov 6, 2013 6:57pm Nov 6, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting Davit
Short limit at 85 no need to rush. {image}
hy.. davit your short was expired
the pip party begins, ausie dropped so next NZD
  • #2,515
  • Nov 6, 2013 11:27pm Nov 6, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting khol_hands
{quote} hy.. davit your short was expired the pip party begins, ausie dropped so next NZD

I hope its working for you.I always wish best for others.
18pip drop is nothing on intraday I set my shorts and forget about it.I let the market come to me.No need to rush.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #2,516
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:29pm Nov 7, 2013 3:29pm
H&S od daily in proces
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  • #2,517
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:21am Nov 8, 2013 9:21am
Quoting plesac
H&S od daily in proces {image}
Nice job, but your neck might be higher. I also have a lower important level. ( easier to see on candles.)
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #2,518
  • Nov 8, 2013 9:34am Nov 8, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Nice job, but your neck might be higher. I also have a lower important level. ( easier to see on candles.) {image}
Agreed
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #2,519
  • Nov 8, 2013 5:31pm Nov 8, 2013 5:31pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Nice job, but your neck might be higher. I also have a lower important level. ( easier to see on candles.) {image}

Could be, then today daly close is just arround that neck. still shorting this,waiting next week to see
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  • #2,520
  • Nov 8, 2013 7:13pm Nov 8, 2013 7:13pm
NZDUSD is going to hit 0.8000 at least... targeting 0.7800 area (theorical target from H&S)

If not happening... I quite trading ^^
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