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  • #401
  • Nov 6, 2013 1:56am Nov 6, 2013 1:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} HaHa... That won't happen without significant changes to existing treaties. The EU cannot even agree on how to set up a banking union, let alone another currency. Don't hold your breath. The only gold backed currency I can envision in the next decade is the Renminbi.
+1 on RMB!

Im going to Singapore over Xmas break to discuss a RMB FD/MM account with those banks out there

:nerd:
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #402
  • Edited 2:25am Nov 6, 2013 2:01am | Edited 2:25am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
anyone trading gold {image}

I am not on this yet, but looking for a short, maybe this week

ultimately, I see gold close to $1000 over the next few months

the weekly has very interesting fib confluences (not shown)

We can easily see it bounce between the supply and demand lines on weekly before it gives a clear signal...

many $$ to be made (or lost) on this one within this range

Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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edit:
added Daily: as you can see, there is a clean price rejection at the 233 LWMA, in conjunction with a sequential sell... and the 13/55 LWMA are looking for a cross, but the break of the demand line is not qualified, therefore I remain weary of taking a position at this stage... however, my bias is bearish

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Daily 11.06.13.png Size: 57 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #403
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:38am Nov 6, 2013 2:38am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
anyone trading gold {image}

hi R2R,

i've been trading only gold for over a month now - an experiment in pervasive singular PA emmersion! Initially my deciion to focus on Gold was based on my analysis that the new bull trend had either started or was about to. Well, spending time with it, I have realised that this is actually the last stages of the decline. Gold ay well hit just shy of $1000 to the downside - but not after a lengthy consolidation period. ATM, EW counts and practical forces play both ways (both bullish and bearish) with equal and opposite force. So I see a triangle consolidation through December at least. The triangle range is already quite well defined on the daily chart.

I am not sure yet, but the triangle breakout should likely be to new lows on the downside. Then the primary degree 5th wave to above 2000 can begin.

In my opinion Gold is moving on technicals and no extended run can occur because there are stops and orders being triggered at virtually every $5 increment. The closest battery of orders wait at 1300 no doubt, but equally there should be a ton of stops just under!

I would apply a rule of waiting for confirmation of a move rather than entering in anticipation of it.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #404
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:38am Nov 6, 2013 2:38am
Quoting venzen
{quote} not an inch of progress - haven't even started, D! I plan to get going with DeMark and a book by Rich Swannell soon. Have spent the past week integrating my apps and OS so I can switch easily and seamlessly between trading platform and my prefered graphics app (Inkscape) to facilitate TA and pattern referencing whilst trading. The more tools in the toolbox the better, hey? Not to use them simultaneously - but when the task requires.
I found something about this that you may find interesting;
Google "Trading Indicators for the 21st Century" ... its a set of 6 videos... most useful

90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #405
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:43am Nov 6, 2013 2:43am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I am not on this yet, but looking for a short, maybe this week ultimately, I see gold close to $1000 over the next few months the weekly has very interesting fib confluences (not shown) We can easily see it bounce between the supply and demand lines on weekly before it gives a clear signal... many $$ to be made (or lost) on this one within this range Weekly {image} edit: added Daily: as you can see, there is a clean price rejection at the 233 LWMA, in conjunction with a sequential sell... and the 13/55 LWMA are looking for a cross, but the...

exactly: bouncing and consolidating. I am not position trading gold until its intention becomes clear.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #406
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:44am Nov 6, 2013 2:44am
Quoting PipTrapper
Short Cable at 1.6054 SL 1.6084 Target open GBPUSDCALL
Stopped out overnight for -30 pips
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #407
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:46am Nov 6, 2013 2:46am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I am not on this yet, but looking for a short, maybe this week ultimately, I see gold close to $1000 over the next few months the weekly has very interesting fib confluences (not shown) We can easily see it bounce between the supply and demand lines on weekly before it gives a clear signal... many $$ to be made (or lost) on this one within this range Weekly {image} edit: added Daily: as you can see, there is a clean price rejection at the 233 LWMA, in conjunction with a sequential sell... and the 13/55 LWMA are looking for a cross, but the...
i dont short the metals for long term plays

but i can see it heading to 1070



first tp reached on 1318, but i need to wait for PA to
confirm it wont breakout immediately and go to 1328
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #408
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:51am Nov 6, 2013 2:51am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} i dont short the metals for long term plays but i can see it heading to 1070 first tp reached on 1318, but i need to wait for PA to confirm it wont breakout immediately and go to 1328 {image}

I hear you dude,

as a rule, i dont look at anything under 240 minutes for any instrument... primarily daily and weekly charts for me...

i tend to agree with your price target, the $1000 level i mentioned was generally speaking, i see the ultimate range between 950 and 1100... will know better as we get closer
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #409
  • Nov 6, 2013 2:57am Nov 6, 2013 2:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} exactly: bouncing and consolidating. I am not position trading gold until its intention becomes clear.
with on you this one dude!

in the mean time, looking at our "best friend", EJ... this chart has WTF written all over it:

Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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(there's a fib level in there too... not shown... sequential is on 4 of 13 on its way to "perfection")
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #410
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:05am Nov 6, 2013 3:05am
Ozzie
Followup (from here)

For those who didn't take this one yet...
a qualified break of the H4 supply line may present a better risk adjusted opportunity

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ozzie H4 11.06.13.png Size: 51 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #411
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:10am Nov 6, 2013 3:10am
short 1318.75, keepin it tight.

could go 1322 first but should see a decent short there.

$18 in gold gains today, stops at $2 or $3
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #412
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:18am Nov 6, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
short 1318.75, keepin it tight. could go 1322 first but should see a decent short there. $18 in gold gains today, stops at $2 or $3 {image}
you've got mail!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #413
  • Nov 6, 2013 3:51am Nov 6, 2013 3:51am
Quoting theDHT
Ozzie Followup (from here) For those who didn't take this one yet... a qualified break of the H4 supply line may present a better risk adjusted opportunity H4 {image}

DHT,

I just looked at AUDUSD on the H4, H1 and M15 and that structure going up seems to be a triangle (ie 5 wave correction). It looks to be targeting the 0.9570 area where (if it's a triangle) it will reverse into an impulse down. The impulse should be of equal distance as the first wave down from 0.9758 (23 Oct) -> about 350pips.

The sign that this is what is happening is a break below 0.9422 - the recent low.

It seems you're long already, so hopefully I am wrong and PA just keeps going!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #414
  • Edited 4:10am Nov 6, 2013 3:54am | Edited 4:10am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
short 1318.75, keepin it tight. could go 1322 first but should see a decent short there. $18 in gold gains today, stops at $2 or $3 {image}
out at BE, id rather wait for a better signal

will respond to those who quoted me when i get a moment here

edit; in hindsight i shouldnt have got out. oh well it happens
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #415
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:10am Nov 6, 2013 4:10am
Quoting venzen
{quote} DHT, I just looked at AUDUSD on the H4, H1 and M15 and that structure going up seems to be a triangle (ie 5 wave correction). It looks to be targeting the 0.9570 area where (if it's a triangle) it will reverse into an impulse down. The impulse should be of equal distance as the first wave down from 0.9758 (23 Oct) -> about 350pips. The sign that this is what is happening is a break below 0.9422 - the recent low. It seems you're long already, so hopefully I am wrong and PA just keeps going!

I hear you dude,

however, looking at the daily chart, we have two important swing highs: 9/18 @~95289 and 10/23 @~976

structurally, this cannot be an impulse, because the recent low on 11/1 @~9443 closed inside the W1 range...

now, it is possible (and likely) that we are seeing a correction inside the larger impulse to the downside which started earlier this year... in which case, the downside targets are much lower than the recent lows @~88... but I think we are not ready for such a move yet... additionally, there are too many fib levels stacking up which reaffirm a bullish case on the H4/D1 time frame.... the weekly's are mixed/bearish

..I may be wrong in my assessment/wave counts, if so, please correct me, as you know much more than me regarding EW, and im enjoying the practice!

I am playing this pair to the upside at the moment; I nailed the bottom right at ~9415 (this was my entry)... and I am seeing USD weakness across the board at the moment (albeit in differing levels of intensity)... but certainly, I sleep with one eye open

cheers
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #416
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:22am Nov 6, 2013 4:22am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} I hear you dude, however, looking at the daily chart, we have two important swing highs: 9/18 @~95289 and 10/23 @~976 structurally, this cannot be an impulse, because the recent low on 11/1 @~9443 closed inside the W1 range... now, it is possible (and likely) that we are seeing a correction inside the larger impulse to the downside which started earlier this year... in which case, the downside targets are much lower than the recent lows @~88... but I think we are not ready for such a move yet... additionally, there are too many fib levels...
As you can see from the impulse down count I have marked on the daily, I'm still leaning towards the downside in the mid term. However, with that very clear bullish hidden divergence we need more up first. I've been targeting 9915 or even parity to complete the correction, but then it starts to look too far out of the time context to be a correction at that point... hence my confusion. I'm flat this pair simply because I can't make heads or tails from the charts.

A/U Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #417
  • Nov 6, 2013 4:43am Nov 6, 2013 4:43am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} As you can see from the impulse down count I have marked on the daily, I'm still leaning towards the downside in the mid term. However, with that very clear bullish hidden divergence we need more up first. I've been targeting 9915 or even parity to complete the correction, but then it starts to look too far out of the time context to be a correction at that point... hence my confusion. I'm flat this pair simply because I can't make heads or tails from the charts. A/U Daily {image}

I tend to agree with your counts and price targets... and you are right in saying that the count is not clean at all, therefore I am not relying on it much

fib levels and other studies on the other hand, paint a cleaner picture...

T1 is the supply line (~975)
T2 is the range between the 127 and 161.8 (~989 - ~1.005); it is a range because the retrace was between the 61.8 and 78.6, therefore I am unsure about how far it will carry

Parity is certainly possible, and from my viewpoint, it is welcome, because then theres more $$ to be made when the impulse wave resumes

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ozzie Daily 11.06.13.png Size: 46 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #418
  • Edited 10:27am Nov 6, 2013 8:23am | Edited 10:27am
Gents,

This is what I have. This also shows a good example of a diagonal and how to count it. A diagonal is a motive wave but it is not an impulse. Each of its waves subdivide into 3 waves. So while an impulse is composed of the following wave sequence: 5-3-5-3-5 ; a diagonal has 3-3-3-3-3 where the normal rules and guidelines for a three wave sequence applies.

I don't know if this count is correct (altho' it Fibs out pretty well) or if PA will follow through, but here it is on H1:

edit: oh, another thing - that B wave triangle is shown to complete imminently, but it's conclusion is guaranteed to drag out - triangles need almost a 3rd of the time longer than when you think they're done! The channel TLs should hold and the last 'e' wave should throw over it before reversing. If none of this happens your original plan is good as it stands.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_6Nov2013.png Size: 65 KB
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #419
  • Nov 6, 2013 8:55am Nov 6, 2013 8:55am
From @zerohedge

"Sources" saying ECB rate change unlikely, LTRO not on top of agenda, EURJPY soaring taking ES with it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #420
  • Nov 7, 2013 1:01am Nov 7, 2013 1:01am
Quoting venzen
Gents, This is what I have. This also shows a good example of a diagonal and how to count it. A diagonal is a motive wave but it is not an impulse. Each of its waves subdivide into 3 waves. So while an impulse is composed of the following wave sequence: 5-3-5-3-5 ; a diagonal has 3-3-3-3-3 where the normal rules and guidelines for a three wave sequence applies. I don't know if this count is correct (altho' it Fibs out pretty well) or if PA will follow through, but here it is on H1: edit: oh, another thing - that B wave triangle is shown to complete...
in retrospect, your count seems almost prophetic...

that unemployment data really did a number on the Ozzie... lets see where she goes from here... I am still holding my long, but my gains have been cut significantly
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
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