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Simple High Probability Trading

  • #121
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:15pm Oct 30, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting Nexas
I place my stop behind the swing high and look for a target of over 1:1
Hi Nexas,

Thanks for providing us with your time and a great strategy.

You may be planning to discuss these topics further on in thread but I have some questions regaring stop loss & position management.

1) Do you place your stop exactly on the previous swing high/low number or a pip or 2 beyond?
2) Do you let a position either hit your initial stop loss or ride to your minimum RR target then manage a exit plan? If possible could you expand on how you manage your exits (both stop losses and taking profits)
3) (the answer to this may be in question #2) do break even trades account for much of your results?

Thank you again for your help
  • #122
  • Nov 1, 2013 1:46am Nov 1, 2013 1:46am
How's everyone doing? I'm finding this method very useful. There was a few good trade setups this week.

Thanx again Nexas for sharing.
  • #123
  • Nov 1, 2013 2:47am Nov 1, 2013 2:47am
Quoting Traded
{quote} Hi Nexas, Thanks for providing us with your time and a great strategy. You may be planning to discuss these topics further on in thread but I have some questions regaring stop loss & position management. 1) Do you place your stop exactly on the previous swing high/low number or a pip or 2 beyond? 2) Do you let a position either hit your initial stop loss or ride to your minimum RR target then manage a exit plan? If possible could you expand on how you manage your exits (both stop losses and taking profits) 3) (the answer to this may be in...
Hi Traded,

Thank you for your questions. Here are the answers.

1: I usually allow for 2-3 pips beyond the swing point.

2: I trade quite defensively so alot of the time I am out of a trade for about half my stop loss if the market doesn't go my way immediately. When I am day trading I don't want to get into a position to see it go directly against me especially if I am trading against the bigger trend. So If I am day trading everything starts off as a scalp until the market proves it can be trusted! This means you will get out of some way too early but over a period of time with your losses MUCH smaller than your wins you will come out ahead.

3: Yes break even and +/- a few pips...
  • #124
  • Nov 1, 2013 2:51am Nov 1, 2013 2:51am
Quoting PiptheRipper
How's everyone doing? I'm finding this method very useful. There was a few good trade setups this week. Thanx again Nexas for sharing.
Unfortunately I have been away this week so haven't been able to trade :-(

But looking at the charts now.... Yes there have been some nice opportunities this week!

At the moment the Euro is interesting but I am not sure if it has gone too far now in too short a space of time... plus it is at a support/demand zone on the daily... so I think I will have to give this a miss for the moment.
  • #125
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:02am Nov 1, 2013 4:02am
Quoting Nexas
{quote} Unfortunately I have been away this week so haven't been able to trade :-( But looking at the charts now.... Yes there have been some nice opportunities this week! At the moment the Euro is interesting but I am not sure if it has gone too far now in too short a space of time... plus it is at a support/demand zone on the daily... so I think I will have to give this a miss for the moment.
Yes, the Euro was the best trade of the lot. The strength of the move down took me by surprise. I'm especially interested to see what the USD will do next. It's still in a uptrend, so for the time being I'll take EU sell signals, but if the USD downtrend resumes, I'll stay away from the EU for at least a week to see what it does. There is no point trading 2 weak currencies, since that usually leads to a lot of sideways chop.
  • #126
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:53am Nov 1, 2013 4:53am
I love the Nordic currencies... they just move so well when they get going!

Take a look at the attached... I missed the first as the price had already gone before I got a chance to enter. The second was a good trade, everything made sense! The third opportunity was just a little too untidy for me... and the fourth was a carbon copy of the second!

Study the pull backs and let me know if you can see what a good trade look like :o)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNOK.png Size: 90 KB
  • #127
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:26pm Nov 1, 2013 5:26pm
Quoting PiptheRipper
How's everyone doing? I'm finding this method very useful. There was a few good trade setups this week. Thanx again Nexas for sharing.
Quoting Nexas
Study the pull backs and let me know if you can see what a good trade look like :o)
I am also with an eye opened for this strategy.

It is very easy to use and very easy to see the entries once we are able to filter good pullbacks (as Nexas pointed).

I thank you too, Nexas.

Great strategy and I am doing an EA about it for Amibroker (I am new in Forex and MT4).

As soon as it is done, I will be happy to share.

In the near future, I hope I can implement it on MT4. That is the plan.
  • #128
  • Nov 4, 2013 2:19pm Nov 4, 2013 2:19pm
The markets were crap today! anyone else experience that! one trade one loss for me...
  • #129
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:40am Nov 5, 2013 12:40am
Quoting Nexas
The markets were crap today! anyone else experience that! one trade one loss for me...
Yes! It was super shit. Having said that, I was a bit impatient as well. I didn't like the way it behaved from the start and should've stayed out. I made 2 losing trades, GU & NU. Nway it's a new day. Lets do it!
  • #130
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:54am Nov 5, 2013 1:54am
Indeed!

Now we need the pairs to make a move before we look to get in now... this is due to nothing happening yesterday... there is no momentum to ride off the back of, so the name of the game is discipline.

All the pairs are in the same position.

We also need to consider it is a big data week with the ECB and Non-Farm economic indicators out later this week.

Markets are expecting a rate cut hence the big euro sell off. If Draghi is dovish then we could see the trap door open for further Euro weakness... however if he is not, then is will be a super aggressive move to the upside. So play it defensive this week.
  • #131
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:55am Nov 5, 2013 1:55am
I was reading some of these articles last night... very interesting... particularly the way he talks about exiting trades as a day trader... take a look.

http://www.informedtrades.com/f348/
  • #132
  • Nov 5, 2013 9:19am Nov 5, 2013 9:19am
Not a bad day so far... short EURUSD for profit and long AUDUSD for a loss... but due to a good r:r i'm out in front!
  • #133
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:15am Nov 5, 2013 10:15am
Just closed my final trade for the day a long GBPUSD... all in all a good day in the end.
  • #134
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:20am Nov 5, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Nexas
all in all a good day in the end.
Agree! I took 2 positions on AU. 1 Win,1 Loss. Net +1R, so I'm happy.
  • #135
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:56pm Nov 5, 2013 12:56pm
Hi Nexas.. Your system looks simple and an easy one to learn and trade. I am going to try it in demo.
I have a question. Isn't it good to look for trades from the london open to close where we have good volume and price movement? Please share your experience. Thanks in advance. Green pips to you..
  • #136
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:34pm Nov 5, 2013 1:34pm
Hi Bluejack,

Yes of course. That is pretty much the basis of this system... although I have to admit... I have never looked at volume on an FX chart.

But price movement is key!

Thanks


Nexas
  • #137
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:38pm Nov 5, 2013 1:38pm
Is anyone willing to put up a TradeExplorer or Myfxbook to track this method? It's much easier to study the trades on TradeExplorer rather than just posts about winning or losing a trade. We can study from the built-in chart feature so no need to wait for others to post their pictures.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #138
  • Nov 5, 2013 1:47pm Nov 5, 2013 1:47pm
Hi Mmaker,

Sorry I use FXCM and IB and not with MT4 so I couldn't even if I wanted to.

Thanks

Nexas
  • #139
  • Nov 6, 2013 11:36am Nov 6, 2013 11:36am
Quoting Nexas
Hi Mmaker, Sorry I use FXCM and IB and not with MT4 so I couldn't even if I wanted to. Thanks Nexas
Hi Nexas,
Hope you had a good day with trading.. If it's ok to you, can you please post few charts with trades you have taken?

Thank You
Bj..
  • #140
  • Nov 6, 2013 5:22pm Nov 6, 2013 5:22pm
Hi Bluejack,

Yes of course. I will post charts in the future as oppose to just text.

Thanks


Nexas
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