From Experience as we witness so many logical or illogical things happen in fx market we conclude "anything is possible in currency trading" (reminds me my friend hunters quote while in South Africa, "anything is possible in Africa")
While this is true there is still a room for trading based on probability.
I am trying to develop my new approach to trade without any indicator whatsoever. It is completely discretionary and cannot be programmed.
Here is Example,
Supposedly in comparison with other currency pairs NZDJPY has the biggest probability to plunge next week or so.
My Assuming is based on the current market situation. AUDNZD is in oversold position and there might be medium or short term reversal, at least no further NZD gains are expected in AUDNZD. USDJPY is overbought and trend seems to be exhausted and there might be short term or medium term reversal in USDJPY. NZDUSD on technical charts looks like it is initiating downside trend. NZDJPY itself is in overbought position and looks like Week closed on bearish candle, also major support was broken already on daily chart.
Also AUDUSD is in downside trend. AU economy is getting in recession. NZD economy seems to be in better state but AU is major driver of the region so currency markets are characterized by spillover effect. If economy in major country worsens it will trigger recession in neighboring countries. NZD as currency is in overbought position and not desired by NZ central bank.
So no one knows, but based on everything I provided I am assuming that NZDJPY has bigger probability of slump.
Well to emphisize what I am saying from different angle. Let's take you want to trade EURUSD, you think it is entering in downside trend. Take EURUSD pair and tell me if you have so many arguments as you do have for NZDJPY.
So with the same approach here is second example
take EURCAD currency pair.
EURUSD seems to have initiated bearish trend. USDCAD seems in overbought situation.
EURCAD itself has touched major resistance on daily charts and has retreated and week closed on bearish candle.
CAD economy is not in good shape to trigger CAD appreciation, seems commodity currencies have bad season.
But technically EURCAD should slide down at least 300 pips in next two weeks.
Again we have nothing to be guaranteed, but as stated above we trade probability and it is common for all currency pairs.
talking about past cases doesn't mean anything, but this approached helped me to identify that yesterday AUDCAD was going to collapse most almost guaranteed. Also there was high probability that NZDUSD would follow AUD.
Now important question is where to enter and how to test as it is impossible to code.
While this is true there is still a room for trading based on probability.
I am trying to develop my new approach to trade without any indicator whatsoever. It is completely discretionary and cannot be programmed.
Here is Example,
Supposedly in comparison with other currency pairs NZDJPY has the biggest probability to plunge next week or so.
My Assuming is based on the current market situation. AUDNZD is in oversold position and there might be medium or short term reversal, at least no further NZD gains are expected in AUDNZD. USDJPY is overbought and trend seems to be exhausted and there might be short term or medium term reversal in USDJPY. NZDUSD on technical charts looks like it is initiating downside trend. NZDJPY itself is in overbought position and looks like Week closed on bearish candle, also major support was broken already on daily chart.
Also AUDUSD is in downside trend. AU economy is getting in recession. NZD economy seems to be in better state but AU is major driver of the region so currency markets are characterized by spillover effect. If economy in major country worsens it will trigger recession in neighboring countries. NZD as currency is in overbought position and not desired by NZ central bank.
So no one knows, but based on everything I provided I am assuming that NZDJPY has bigger probability of slump.
Well to emphisize what I am saying from different angle. Let's take you want to trade EURUSD, you think it is entering in downside trend. Take EURUSD pair and tell me if you have so many arguments as you do have for NZDJPY.
So with the same approach here is second example
take EURCAD currency pair.
EURUSD seems to have initiated bearish trend. USDCAD seems in overbought situation.
EURCAD itself has touched major resistance on daily charts and has retreated and week closed on bearish candle.
CAD economy is not in good shape to trigger CAD appreciation, seems commodity currencies have bad season.
But technically EURCAD should slide down at least 300 pips in next two weeks.
Again we have nothing to be guaranteed, but as stated above we trade probability and it is common for all currency pairs.
talking about past cases doesn't mean anything, but this approached helped me to identify that yesterday AUDCAD was going to collapse most almost guaranteed. Also there was high probability that NZDUSD would follow AUD.
Now important question is where to enter and how to test as it is impossible to code.
kiss the trend