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AUD/USD

  • #68,981
  • Nov 4, 2013 8:48pm Nov 4, 2013 8:48pm
Nothing says "Long" to me.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #68,982
  • Nov 4, 2013 9:09pm Nov 4, 2013 9:09pm
Quoting bogus
Nothing says \"Long\" to me.
A dip on unchanged (expected) cash rate as well as RBA's expected jawboning says nothing other than long to me. But that's just me.
  • #68,983
  • Nov 4, 2013 9:21pm Nov 4, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
Price action post WRBA (worst reserve bank australia) is as I suspected attracting many buyers. AUD been bid and barring a decrease in official rates was always going to snapped up after shit from governors mouth was complete. Dont discount a move back towards announcement low or so but favour a continuation to the upside. Buying dips aggressively!!
Australian dollar is -8.7% versus the US dollar year-to-date. Not sure buying dips is a good idea since it is counter trend.
  • #68,984
  • Nov 4, 2013 9:21pm Nov 4, 2013 9:21pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} A dip on unchanged (expected) cash rate as well as RBA's expected jawboning says nothing other than long to me. But that's just me.

I thought you were long after .9520?
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #68,985
  • Nov 4, 2013 9:30pm Nov 4, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting bogus
{quote} I thought you were long after .9520?
I've been long for months now from 8890 level buying dips & Breaks
  • #68,986
  • Nov 4, 2013 9:36pm Nov 4, 2013 9:36pm
People have been telling me its not a good idea buying aud for quite some time. Unfortunately for them their account isn't fairing well shorting it so i'll stick to my analysis that has worked well for me up until now.
  • #68,987
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:03pm Nov 4, 2013 10:03pm
The chart still is bullish.. if and only if RBA did not do something...
  • #68,988
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:35pm Nov 4, 2013 10:35pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
People have been telling me its not a good idea buying aud for quite some time. Unfortunately for them their account isn't fairing well shorting it so i'll stick to my analysis that has worked well for me up until now.
Not sure what people you have communicated with, but shorting has been more profitable this year than buying. And yes even after accounting for swap. In April (7 months ago), price was at 1.0500. It reached a low around 0.8900 in August. Even if you've continued to hold on to a short from above 1.0000, you would still be up 500+ pips. Swap varies from broker to broker, but on average it is about half a pip per day for an AUD/USD long and about 7 tenths of a pip for short (based on rollover position size). So 7 months (210 days) worth of positive swap is about +105 pips and negative swap is about -147 pips. The total differential is therefore 252 pips. If the average short position is at least 500 pips positive, it stands to reason that the average long position is negative by at least 500 pips. So the differential is 1000 pips. Subtract the swap differential of 252 pips and the overall difference is 748 pips. As you can see using very conservative figures to make the calculations, shorting AUD/USD has clearly been more profitable this year than longing.
  • #68,989
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:36pm Nov 4, 2013 10:36pm
It all depends on a traders time-frame.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #68,990
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:41pm Nov 4, 2013 10:41pm
Quoting bogus
It all depends on a traders time-frame.
Speculating the future does depend on traders time frame.

The past is not up for speculation however.
  • #68,991
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:43pm Nov 4, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Speculating the future does depend on traders time frame. The past is not up for speculation however.

True. My post before wasn't in regard to yours
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #68,992
  • Nov 4, 2013 10:47pm Nov 4, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Not sure what people you have communicated with, but shorting has been more profitable this year than buying. And yes even after accounting for swap. In April (7 months ago), price was at 1.0500. It reached a low around 0.8900 in August. Even if you've continued to hold on to a short from above 1.0000, you would still be up 500+ pips. Swap varies from broker to broker, but on average it is about half a pip per day for an AUD/USD long and about 7 tenths of a pip for short (based on rollover position size). So 7 months (210 days) worth of...
Yes your right, if we are talking from 1.05 and im not in this case. I'm refering to those short from 88-90 area 2+2 otherwise discussion will never end as those long from the ride up 2 years ago are still profitable LOL. What I have noticed here and I hope im not far off is that this thread in recent weeks gets very quiet when aud on the rise and then get all the bears jumping in as soon as there is life in downward movement. They will blow accounts quietly and scream i told you so, or there it is at the first opportunity. Well each to their own but I will call what i see whether in green or red and if i ever blow up an account especially my aggressiviely bullish aud position account I'll put my hand up!! Lets see what euro session brings .
  • #68,993
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:01pm Nov 4, 2013 11:01pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} Yes your right, if we are talking from 1.05 and im not in this case. I'm refering to those short from 88-90 area 2+2 otherwise discussion will never end as those long from the ride up 2 years ago are still profitable LOL. What I have noticed here and I hope im not far off is that this thread in recent weeks gets very quiet when aud on the rise and then get all the bears jumping in as soon as there is life in downward movement. They will blow accounts quietly and scream i told you so, or there it is at the first opportunity. Well each to...
If someone shorted at 0.89 then they deserve what they got. There wasn't much pullback along the journey from 1.05 to 0.89. And I know that seems easy to say now in hindsight, but I remember thinking after we broke 0.9750 that continuing to add to my shorts would be too risky. So shorting at 0.89 without a major pullback was beyond risky, in my opinion.
  • #68,994
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:06pm Nov 4, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} If someone shorted at 0.89 then they deserve what they got. There wasn't much pullback along the journey from 1.05 to 0.89. And I know that seems easy to say now in hindsight, but I remember thinking after we broke 0.9750 that continuing to add to my shorts would be too risky. So adding at 0.89 without a major pullback was beyond risky, in my opinion.
True, but we know there were quite a few holding underwater shorts from 88-90 area way too long.
  • #68,995
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:07pm Nov 4, 2013 11:07pm
Is this H&S on 4H ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Unbenannt.JPG Size: 83 KB
  • #68,996
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:12pm Nov 4, 2013 11:12pm
Quoting tarik.
Is this H&S on 4H ? {image}
Depends if your long or short. If your short you find something to discount it and if your long it's a definite H&S

I'm no expert but I'd say yes but keep in mind I'm long too.
  • #68,997
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:12pm Nov 4, 2013 11:12pm
Hello All,

Could someone give me info/ web page where I can find chart with index for AU or GBP, JPY.
At my broker I have only for US and EUR!

Thanks in advance.
  • #68,998
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:14pm Nov 4, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting Mimir
Hello All, Could someone give me info/ web page where I can find chart with index for AU or GBP, JPY. At my broker I have only for US and EUR! Thanks in advance.
if you dont mind.. here the chart..

http://www.forex-tribe.com/AUD-USD-Analysis.php
  • #68,999
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:17pm Nov 4, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting Tiyaga
wow the pitchfork worked again. bought that dip {image}
Quoting okanemici
Tonite my orders are long audyen 0.9340 , buy limit audusd 0.9485
Great job.I longed 93.40 and 93.20 too.Also the audusd.
  • #69,000
  • Nov 4, 2013 11:18pm Nov 4, 2013 11:18pm
Quoting tarik.
Is this H&S on 4H ? {image}
That's just a head and a shoulder

Will it turn into head & shoulders? Maybe. Maybe not.
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