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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #561
  • Nov 1, 2013 1:47pm Nov 1, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} My trading online for next week Short GU 1.60 (if it goes there or close to it) Short GC 1.67 and above with full force Short UC 500 and above Long USD/CHF 90 and below (regret getting out too early here) Hoping second chance.I had fantastic numbers here but took early insignificant profit. Enjoy your weekend
It was just pointed out to me the very bullish weekly US$ index candle so a continuation may very well be likely.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #562
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:03am Nov 5, 2013 12:03am
Found Al Pacino speech brillient
"Life is about inches"
Inserted Video
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #563
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:27am Nov 5, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Speaking of confluence check out how price bounced up from 200EMA to a pip. If you keep your lot sizes reasonable to account size then leaving it alone becomes easier in terms of letting the trade work in your favor.I certainly learned that lesson hard way or shall I say costly way.My original GC positions were too big compare to account hence I closed out of fear.Had my positions been reasonable I would of let them be alone until profit. Regards {image}
Oh yeah...I know that 200 ma is pretty sweet. I've gotten into the habit of not using MAs though. Visually it tends to distract me...it's just so different from the formal language of the PA. I should get back into the habit of checking where price is relative to the 200...even if I turn it off and on.

And right, multiple orders, smaller lots...and building positions, it's the key. I'm struggling a bit with my use of limits at the moment but getting things squared away. I see the need to enter in 'zones,' but when doing so...risk tends to broaden, and that's my issue. I think I just need to tighten my zones a bit. That should allow me to keep the risk fairly tight, and give me the flexibility of multiple orders in terms of taking profit at logical levels.

so...it's kind of like miniature Davit trading...haha. That is actually not a bad way to look at it...it's just at a smaller scale...


Did get a decent fill here on the EA 1 hour this morning, bottom dollar...single limit order, though I have added one position off the double bottom on the 15 min. We'll see where it goes.
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  • #564
  • Nov 5, 2013 10:34am Nov 5, 2013 10:34am
Quoting Davit
Found Al Pacino speech brillient \"Life is about inches\" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9CD7uj2TL0

good one, Love AL...yeah, that's what it feels like, inch by inch...pip by pip.

Not related but have you seen 'Dog Day Afternoon.' Old but good.
Inserted Video
  • #565
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:03pm Nov 5, 2013 12:03pm
Byrno I'll check it out.Thank you
I am happy to reenter shorts at lot better numbers again.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #566
  • Nov 5, 2013 12:23pm Nov 5, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Oh yeah...I know that 200 ma is pretty sweet. I've gotten into the habit of not using MAs though. Visually it tends to distract me...it's just so different from the formal language of the PA. I should get back into the habit of checking where price is relative to the 200...even if I turn it off and on. And right, multiple orders, smaller lots...and building positions, it's the key. I'm struggling a bit with my use of limits at the moment but getting things squared away. I see the need to enter in 'zones,' but when doing so...risk tends to...

I would suggest stop using your S/R indicator.
You should train to see them yourself because you can show lot more discretion.

Lets do an experiment
Choose a naked chart and switch it to line chart (line chart only shows close price)
Draw your S/R zones based on relevancy.
Switch to candles and observe how much better and accurate they are.Now over lay your S/R indicator on your chart and see how that's different.Mathematical models can't accurately assess which is more important and which not.

About 200EMA
Notice how price since June 2013 supported UC? 200EMA is floating S/R
UC is between 300-600 300 pips range channel.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #567
  • Edited 9:51am Nov 8, 2013 9:29am | Edited 9:51am
Who can spot the bogus data? Earnings, working hours, and personal income are stagnant and unemployment is worse yet somehow the non-farm payrolls are up a record-setting 25%, up 41% excluding public sector employees. I call shenanigans.

Personal spending and buying are both down yet the pundits are already writing articles about how tapering is eminent because this non-farm data proves the US economy is recovering. The US dollar is still rising! Ridiculous!

___________________________________________now_____prior___change

8:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) ___ 0.10% _ 0.10% _ same

8:30 USD Average Weekly Hours ____________ 34.4 __ 34.4 __ same
8:30 USD Personal Income (MoM) ___________ 0.50% _ 0.50% _ same
8:30 USD Unemployment Rate _______________ 7.30% _ 7.20% _ worse
8:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls ________________ 204K __ 163K __ +25%
8:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls ________ 212K __ 150K __ +41%
8:30 USD Personal Spending (MoM) _________ 0.20% _ 0.30% _ worse
8:30 USD Real Personal Consumption (MoM) _ 0.10% _ 0.20% _ worse
8:30 USD Core PCE Price Index (MoM) ______ 0.10% _ 0.10% _ same
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #568
  • Nov 8, 2013 2:16pm Nov 8, 2013 2:16pm
Quoting KADC
Who can spot the bogus data? Earnings, working hours, and personal income are stagnant and unemployment is worse yet somehow the non-farm payrolls are up a record-setting 25%, up 41% excluding public sector employees. I call shenanigans. Personal spending and buying are both down yet the pundits are already writing articles about how tapering is eminent because this non-farm data proves the US economy is recovering. The US dollar is still rising! Ridiculous! ___________________________________________now_____prior___change 8:30 USD Average Hourly...

Hi KADC
If US numbers are somewhat not accurate GB numbers are even worse.
I just need GB down.Sterling is showing amazing resiliency.Learned too many "Not to do's" towards Sterling.For one it has this "safe" cushy secure feeling about it and hard to fall.
Once I get out of my shorts on GB only direction I would trade it is up and only up.Hate shorting Cable.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #569
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:20pm Nov 8, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC If US numbers are somewhat not accurate GB numbers are even worse. I just need GB down.Sterling is showing amazing resiliency.Learned too many "Not to do's" towards Sterling.For one it has this "safe" cushy secure feeling about it and hard to fall. Once I get out of my shorts on GB only direction I would trade it is up and only up.Hate shorting Cable. Regards
Well, there's inaccuracy and there's flat out nonsense. Economies change incrementally, not in crazy fits and spurts. Whatever the truth may be behind the data, movement in the past two days of has invalidated most of my short-term charts and even big picture-wise certain long-term support levels have been taken out virtually across the board. I think this coming week will be full of bounces and corrections (at least they should be after such significant moves) that I don't want to mess around with until after the dust settles.

I think I might focus on stocks next week. Oh, yes, and I have to review my account over the past two months as it appears that my account has been losing money after booking profitable trades since my broker (Interactive Brokers) handed over transactions to the Canadian branch for Canadian customers. A half hour with a support agent talking down to me because "I didn't understand" that carrying a variety of currencies will affect my account balance ended with our connection being terminated "due to technical problems". If my unrealized and realized profit don't represent the actual profit and loss that affects my account balance then he's right. Otherwise they may owe me several thousand dollars from the past seven weeks since they made this change.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #570
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:55pm Nov 9, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting KADC
Who can spot the bogus data? Earnings, working hours, and personal income are stagnant and unemployment is worse yet somehow the non-farm payrolls are up a record-setting 25%, up 41% excluding public sector employees. I call shenanigans. Personal spending and buying are both down yet the pundits are already writing articles about how tapering is eminent because this non-farm data proves the US economy is recovering. The US dollar is still rising! Ridiculous! ___________________________________________now_____prior___change 8:30 USD Average Hourly...


Yeah... a bit crazy KADC. I was thinking to open a few short positions prior to the data on friday, thinking the USD will surely drop...good thing I knew better about the forex markets...jeez.
  • #571
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:25pm Nov 9, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I would suggest stop using your S/R indicator. You should train to see them yourself because you can show lot more discretion. Lets do an experiment Choose a naked chart and switch it to line chart (line chart only shows close price) Draw your S/R zones based on relevancy. Switch to candles and observe how much better and accurate they are.Now over lay your S/R indicator on your chart and see how that's different.Mathematical models can't accurately assess which is more important and which not. About 200EMA Notice how price since June 2013...

Hey Davit...yeah, I can test that. The first guy I ever learned anything about trading from would plot his SR in that fashion..sometimes, but not all the time...that is how he would teach young traders. Walter Peters in Australia...a great naked trader. Though I could never afford his services so I just took bits and pieces.

But...I love the supply/demand indi...it is sweet ! I understand what you mean about spotting your own entries and discretion...though I actually want something more mechanical. I have used that indicator for some time now...off and on. But now that I understand something about s/r and S/d...it can be used quite nicely. I think anyway. This particular indicator I got from ALfonso...I tried to learn a bit about his method...but I just could not follow the guy...it's just too mechanical in a sense. And I really don't want to be a pure supply/demand trader anyway.

My current set-up is working quite well...I know that I have mentioned that I have been shifting things around lately...in terms of how I approach the markets. But...my style is generally the same...I am just editing how I view the information as it presents itself. For the first time...I am seeing steady growth, and it's because I am getting better at managing the risk... My profits are becoming bigger than my losses...but ohh man it aint easy. As I get organized for this week...let me post some charts. I am still only interested in setups beyond the 786 confluence zone.

Also...Nice call on the Euro......the thing crashed like a led zeppelin. You were talking about that weeks in advance. It's amazing how the technical/fundamentals work.

Bryno

ps...Davit, you should do some videos for your thread ?
  • #572
  • Nov 12, 2013 3:39am Nov 12, 2013 3:39am
closed all my GC shorts on both my accounts
Same orders x2
Too many pips to count
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #573
  • Nov 12, 2013 5:34pm Nov 12, 2013 5:34pm
Nice Davit...yeah, I can see the pips.

Did get filled over night on the UJ...several sell limits filled around 99.65/786 fib confluence zone. Would like to bring it down to 99.1 or so, and add to the position when possible.

I think you mentioned GJ sells around 159 ? did you get that?...Would have been nice.

Bryno
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  • #574
  • Nov 12, 2013 11:57pm Nov 12, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting bryn077
Nice Davit...yeah, I can see the pips. Did get filled over night on the UJ...several sell limits filled around 99.65/786 fib confluence zone. Would like to bring it down to 99.1 or so, and add to the position when possible. I think you mentioned GJ sells around 159 ? did you get that?...Would have been nice. Bryno {image}

Hi Bryno
My limit on GJ did not get trigger but its fine because I added more shorts on other pairs.
Here are my current live shorts

GU 6 Shorts on various stages
GC After closing all my shorts I got in on rebound again at 67 2x
GA Shorts 1.7150 1x 1.71 2x 1.7113 2x Total 5 positions
All my GA shorts are in profit including GC

Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #575
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:48am Nov 13, 2013 6:48am
Cool...glad to hear it. Davit how do you organize your time ? do you have a routine or do you base your time management on the markets?

I saw your GA thread. I am going to look for shorts up in the 786/886 zone.

My UJ shorts are a few pips in profit...going to hit some tough support around 99.4.
  • #576
  • Nov 13, 2013 12:09pm Nov 13, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting bryn077
Cool...glad to hear it. Davit how do you organize your time ? do you have a routine or do you base your time management on the markets? I saw your GA thread. I am going to look for shorts up in the 786/886 zone. My UJ shorts are a few pips in profit...going to hit some tough support around 99.4.

I trade London 3-4hr then sleep.Wake up 12pm EST, Go to work at 3pm.So I don't Trade NY at all.
Closed GC at 67 at BE before news.
Right now its waiting time.
My monthly target of 5% or higher is achieved already.I am up 8% so 3 % more.Which means I can relax and let the trades room to develop.
I can't short UJ because I bought USD against Sterling.So if GU drops UJ will go higher meaning dollar strengthening.
I love shorting GA because of nice swap I get to balance negative swap on GU.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #577
  • Nov 14, 2013 8:23am Nov 14, 2013 8:23am
I see, thanks...I would not really like to live in the UK, I am more of a tropics and Mediterranean guy. But it would be nice to spend some time in London and have London/New York to trade...all day long.

Nice on the percentages. I knew you would probably not be selling the UJ.

I decided to TP at 99.3...what I did not like about the set-up was this. The UJ has been constricting on the daily and what I sold was the breakout of the upper trend-line...so I knew there might be more bullish strength behind the move...which there is. So, I think I made the right decision for about 80 pips, 2 positions. I basically sold the retracement back into the upper trend line. Here are a few charts.
daily and 1 H.

The Yellen confirmation could be interesting.
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  • #578
  • Nov 15, 2013 2:07am Nov 15, 2013 2:07am
Hi Davit,

Just looking at the AUDNZD pair on daily... there seems to be a nice confluence opportunity forming. Any thoughts on this?
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  • #579
  • Nov 15, 2013 4:19am Nov 15, 2013 4:19am
Quoting Sandmann
Hi Davit, Just looking at the AUDNZD pair on daily... there seems to be a nice confluence opportunity forming. Any thoughts on this? {image}

Hi Sandmann
Nice to see you post here.
Looks like a decent long opportunity.Lower Channel bottom approaching or approached already.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #580
  • Nov 15, 2013 12:06pm Nov 15, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I would suggest stop using your S/R indicator. You should train to see them yourself because you can show lot more discretion. Lets do an experiment Choose a naked chart and switch it to line chart (line chart only shows close price) Draw your S/R zones based on relevancy. Switch to candles and observe how much better and accurate they are.Now over lay your S/R indicator on your chart and see how that's different.Mathematical models can't accurately assess which is more important and which not. About 200EMA Notice how price since June 2013...
He can also place a SMA 1 period over the candles sticks chart and is going to watch both charts (line and candle) at the same time. It is what I do :-D
Swing with the tide, Surf with the waves!
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