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Geppy's Geppy Thread (GBP/JPY)

  • #9,301
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:13am Nov 1, 2013 3:13am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
{quote} Maybe you are right, but for now it looks like it could be a Dead Cat Bounce
gbp is such a toss up now!

look at euro, going down again!
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  • #9,302
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:15am Nov 1, 2013 3:15am
At this stage, 1hr and 4hr emas mean nothing. Even daily is questionable. EMAs do NOT mean support or resistance. Frankly, most of my work is now done on daily and weekly - even then the emas mean little.
  • #9,303
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:19am Nov 1, 2013 3:19am
Quoting Mpt
At this stage, 1hr and 4hr emas mean nothing. Even daily is questionable. EMAs do NOT mean support or resistance. Frankly, most of my work is now done on daily and weekly - even then the emas mean little.
yeah, C wave down in JPY, and from the looks of it, seems like euro is starting an impulse to the downside - could break 2012 lows. (FOR NOW)

pound on the other hand is, just going to do a C wave DOWN soon, but not after it shoots up a bit more first... After that, expect pound to go to DA MOON. (UP)
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  • #9,304
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:21am Nov 1, 2013 3:21am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} good luck. imo, too early to short pound. wait next week better.
Now it is too late !!!
  • #9,305
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:21am Nov 1, 2013 3:21am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Now it is too late !!!
still too early! watch for the bounce next today- wednesday! don't mind missing the first part of the move, as long as I get a good retrace entry Exit and took profits better than watch profits disappear on a more than expected retrace. euro pairs on the other hand have opportunities that are hard to come by in your own lifetime trading forex.
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  • #9,306
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:18am Nov 1, 2013 4:18am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} still too early! watch for the bounce next today- wednesday! don't mind missing the first part of the move, as long as I get a good retrace entry Exit and took profits better than watch profits disappear on a more than expected retrace. euro pairs on the other hand have opportunities that are hard to come by in your own lifetime trading forex.
That sounds more like a wish.Let's see what is gonna happen from today to wednesday Frankly by wednesday someone probably will blow an account
  • #9,307
  • Edited 4:53am Nov 1, 2013 4:38am | Edited 4:53am
Quoting okanemici
{quote} That sounds more like a wish.Let's see what is gonna happen from today to wednesday Frankly by wednesday someone probably will blow an account
lol.. the downside can easily play out if by any chance the correction in GBP is complete and we get the follow through, but I doubt it. looks like a wave 3 of c, up (tiny one) in GBP gonna come soon by next week. This C wave is probably a fantastic chance to load up on shorts which will take about 2-3 weeks to play out.

Caveat: I might be wrong here and the entire downside correction for GBP on the big picture might be complete. In which case, this is developing to be a leading diagonal up, and could start the huge move up from here, so watch your risk, because if you don't get out early you might be on a one way trip to DA MOON. But this scenario is NOT likely.

More likely: I'm thinking by latest mid December to early Jan GBP should be at lows that are worth loading up massive LONGS for a 3 of 3 up move on...

For that i was thinking of shorting EUR/GBP in December, but will see how things go.
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  • #9,308
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:27am Nov 1, 2013 5:27am
USD FRIDAY NIGHT!!!
  • #9,309
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:03am Nov 1, 2013 7:03am
Buy limit 1 lot @ 156.785, stop 156.50, tp 157.70
  • #9,310
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:24am Nov 1, 2013 9:24am
nice scalping 7 times I got it
  • #9,311
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:05pm Nov 1, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} lol.. the downside can easily play out if by any chance the correction in GBP is complete and we get the follow through, but I doubt it. looks like a wave 3 of c, up (tiny one) in GBP gonna come soon by next week. This C wave is probably a fantastic chance to load up on shorts which will take about 2-3 weeks to play out. Caveat: I might be wrong here and the entire downside correction for GBP on the big picture might be complete. In which case, this is developing to be a leading diagonal up, and could start the huge move up from here, so...
this is very interesting, kind of at a critical area here....we are at a point where this pair should bounce....so far looks like the pair is correcting more in time than price as its just moving sideways. As well i see an inverse head shoulders setting up on the daily which would be a continuation pattern..if the repellant zone fails i could see it headng to152 to 151 area...critical area right now...
  • #9,312
  • Nov 2, 2013 3:10am Nov 2, 2013 3:10am
My view... The pair had one of the very few weekly moves regarding pips (155), that is really small, only about 9% of weeks is that small. Price didn't quite play my idea http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7051770 but my view is still bearish, I believe we are going to hit 20 EMA on weekly or come very close to it.
  • #9,313
  • Nov 2, 2013 8:50am Nov 2, 2013 8:50am
Quoting Capital Gain
Buy limit 1 lot @ 156.785, stop 156.50, tp 157.70
Not executed.

Have a nice weekend!
  • #9,314
  • Nov 2, 2013 1:53pm Nov 2, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
My view... The pair had one of the very few weekly moves regarding pips (155), that is really small, only about 9% of weeks is that small. Price didn't quite play my idea http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post7051770 but my view is still bearish, I believe we are going to hit 20 EMA on weekly or come very close to it.
the more im looking at this the more its looking like 154 is quite possible.....
  • #9,315
  • Nov 2, 2013 6:46pm Nov 2, 2013 6:46pm
sorry just learning EW....could this be a wave 4 triangle with another spike up to make a wave 5???
  • #9,316
  • Edited 8:04pm Nov 2, 2013 7:18pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting ninner
sorry just learning EW....could this be a wave 4 triangle with another spike up to make a wave 5???
YES, that's what I have always considered it to be. But we don't know whether it's a triangle or a bullish channel. We also don't know how many waves it will have. At the moment, triangle bottom is possibly around 155.6/7/8 for completion of this wave C, (or 154.7 ish for a flat bottomed triangle) but 154x is now possible if it's not a triangle.

Wave 2's move was quite simple - (154.6 to 150.4). The "law of alternation" has it that the next correction, being wave 4 (we're sitting in it) will probably be more complex - and that's what we're seeing. Technically, the first move down to 154.7 should have been enough, (it stopped 10 pips short of the DO NOT PASS level of 154.6) but the next tiring boring B wave that stopped at the fib 88/90 retracement at 159.5 proved the triangle/complex consolidation argument.

If it were to have 5 waves (ABCDE), then it may be stuck around here for another month.

If it launches north having completed this C wave, it will meet resistance at 160, 161.5, 162 and just under 163 which would probably kill it.

If it waits another 3 or 4 weeks (1st week in December), only one resistance will sit over 160 and that's at about 163.

Translation ... the longer it waits, the higher it MAY go. Time will tell.

But if it drops out of 154, it was not wave 4 and would suggest that a top is in place at 160.

------------

As far as this little consolidation is concerned, it may still have another move up before completing lower.
  • #9,317
  • Nov 2, 2013 8:08pm Nov 2, 2013 8:08pm
mpt, on the weekly , could this be wave5 subwave 2 though...wave 3 subdivided into an extended wave??? haave you ever done an analysis on the AUDCAD pair?
  • #9,318
  • Edited 8:55pm Nov 2, 2013 8:28pm | Edited 8:55pm
Quoting ninner
mpt, on the weekly , could this be wave5 subwave 2 though...wave 3 subdivided into an extended wave??? haave you ever done an analysis on the AUDCAD pair?
No idea about AUDCAD. Rightly or wrongly, I just study this pair (and GU/UJ)

Your question about wave 5 /subwave 2 is quite appropriate, but bear one thing in mind. Wave 2 is NEVER a triangle. It can zig zag, it can be quite simple (a,b,c) or it can be a nightmare. But never a triangle.

So, we really won't know until this thing completes and if it was a triangle.

Assuming this is just wave 4, then there is still nothing to stop (other than 162/163) the fifth wave extending a long way. I suggested that some months ago here as being possible as per the moves of 1995 and 1996. In essence, it broke above the 160 ish resistance area, which later became support. Idle speculation maybe, but it's happened before .............. Although I still think that 161.5/163 will stop it.

Anyway, here's a rough wave count for where we've been so far:


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  • #9,319
  • Nov 2, 2013 8:53pm Nov 2, 2013 8:53pm
no you are right but it could turn out to be some sort of flat...
  • #9,320
  • Edited 7:11pm Nov 3, 2013 5:49pm | Edited 7:11pm
Buy limit 1 lot @ 156.75, stop 156.40 , target 157.70
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