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Is trading really that hard?

  • #81
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:17am Nov 1, 2013 5:17am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} But 20-30% isn't worth putting yourself under the tension of trading! . I mean you can make 5% out of your money running a supermarket or a coffee shop business, that's 50-60% per annum and it's not mentally exhausting as trading ( source:had a supermarket business for 2 years ) ...
It's physically exhausting! More likely 50-60% return a year isn't worth the risk involved in trading. If you can achieve 14% a month, compounded over a year that's nearly 500%. 5 winning trades a month at 3% each over and above your losers will do it. Not really that much eh?!?!
  • #82
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:29am Nov 1, 2013 5:29am
Quoting jen101
{quote} It's physically exhausting! More likely 50-60% return a year isn't worth the risk involved in trading. If you can achieve 14% a month, compounded over a year that's nearly 500%. 5 winning trades a month at 3% each over and above your losers will do it. Not really that much eh?!?!

It sounds easy, bigger the SL and TP the nearer it'll become to a 50/50 game, either profiting or losing, your input into the trade is just less, so to get to +5 winning trades your going to likely have to take 100trades per month.

It's never ever easy, but nothing worth doing, ever is!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #83
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:29am Nov 1, 2013 6:29am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} It sounds easy, bigger the SL and TP the nearer it'll become to a 50/50 game, either profiting or losing, your input into the trade is just less, so to get to +5 winning trades your going to likely have to take 100trades per month. It's never ever easy, but nothing worth doing, ever is!!
Eh? Trading higher TF you will have a bigger SL and TP. If anything higher TF's are more reliable, not less so!

I have stopped counting pips now and focus on percentages instead. I use 1:1 R:R and risk 3% a trade. To get to 15% a month is just over 1 winning trade a week.
  • #84
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:40am Nov 1, 2013 6:40am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Eh? Trading higher TF you will have a bigger SL and TP. If anything higher TF's are more reliable, not less so! I have stopped counting pips now and focus on percentages instead. I use 1:1 R:R and risk 3% a trade. To get to 15% a month is just over 1 winning trade a week.
Nahhhh Myth, if your running a 50TP and a 50SL even, it comes down to random chance a lot of the time, how many trades do you take which go straight to your TP, it might get you 30pips nearer your TP which ofcourse is your edge, when you go out to 200SL and 200TP then almost a 50/50 game.

55% - 60% win rate tops if your GOOD, with a 200SL/TP style, but if your CRAP then a 55-60% lose rate tops if your BAD.

80-90% win rate if your GOOD with a 20SL/TP style, but if your CRAP then a 80-90% lose rate tops if your BAD.

That's why people prefer a 200SL style, they don't lose as fast, a crap 20SL player will blow the account in no time, and a good 1 will get rich.

Why I'm working on 20SL style or die trying.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #85
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:09am Nov 1, 2013 7:09am
So... why not risk more of your account per trade? What is this myth about risking no more than 1-3%? Was it put out by brokers so they have more of your money sitting in their coffers? Wouldn't you rather have your money in a bank? Surely you only need enough in your account to comfortably cover the margins. So what if you have a higher drawdown? Risking less means you will just take longer to blow your account if you're crap, so you may as well know sooner than later. Pips don't really mean too much, depending on what you are trading; 200 pips may not be that much for a volatile pair.
  • #86
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:55am Nov 1, 2013 8:55am
Quoting jen101
So... why not risk more of your account per trade? What is this myth about risking no more than 1-3%? Was it put out by brokers so they have more of your money sitting in their coffers? Wouldn't you rather have your money in a bank? Surely you only need enough in your account to comfortably cover the margins. So what if you have a higher drawdown? Risking less means you will just take longer to blow your account if you're crap, so you may as well know sooner than later. Pips don't really mean too much, depending on what you are trading; 200 pips...

1-3% keeps the losses at a level allowing for 55% lose rate and not that many trades for years, you can keep adding $200 per month and handing it over to them pretty much.

I trade 5 - 8% generally of my accounts value, but I like to keep money reserved safely away incase I have a stupid day, remember my method can go 90% losers and has done before.

200 likely isn't enough, puts you at risk of multiday blips, if your trading longer D1 trends.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #87
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:09am Nov 1, 2013 9:09am
Maybe I should demo 10% a trade, see what happens...
  • #88
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:12am Nov 1, 2013 9:12am
Quoting jen101
Maybe I should demo 10% a trade, see what happens...

Won't get a huge account change most likely with your big SL / TP sizes/


Come on roughtly what's your win rate, I bet it's 50% +/- 5%!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #89
  • Nov 1, 2013 11:14am Nov 1, 2013 11:14am
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Won't get a huge account change most likely with your big SL / TP sizes/ Come on roughtly what's your win rate, I bet it's 50% +/- 5%!
I don't use a 200 pip SL
  • #90
  • Edited 12:01pm Nov 1, 2013 11:25am | Edited 12:01pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} I don't use a 200 pip SL

Okay what do you USE and I'll come up with your max theoritical W:L ratio.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #91
  • Nov 1, 2013 12:34pm Nov 1, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Okay what do you USE and I'll come up with your max theoritical W:L ratio.
Anywhere between 25 and 130.
  • #92
  • Nov 1, 2013 12:45pm Nov 1, 2013 12:45pm
Quoting jen101
{quote} Anywhere between 25 and 130.

15 - 30 here,

A 25 is pretty much going to happen in the next hour or so either way, so your right or wrong simple as pretty much, not much left to random chance.

A 130 can take a few days of price wandering around, yes you can improve your odds with trend / historic SR, but it becomes more of a 50/50 game as your leaving a lot to random chance.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #93
  • Nov 1, 2013 12:56pm Nov 1, 2013 12:56pm
I do better than 50/50 and have enough track record to show that. Though in my opinion, not good enough. Looking through my trades, a higher SL is no more likely to get hit than a smaller SL.
  • #94
  • Nov 1, 2013 1:13pm Nov 1, 2013 1:13pm
Quoting AchilliesM5
{quote} Thanks for the advice. I am finding out the hard way. I read another thread about only 1 percent of traders actually make it. Is that True? I want to make a career move. I am a mortgage broker and I have saved money and wish to enter this field. I am hoping this will enable me to work from home, trade in the morning and spend nice quality time with my daughter and wife. Question please: I haven't been trading early in the morning. I usually just trade when I wake up. Is this wrong? I have a friend that appears to be very profitable because...
The time you trade depends on you..so what works for your friend need not work out for everyone. In short, waking up and trading at a particular time is not going to guarantee that you will make a profit. And anyway he trades futures, right? And that's a lot different from the spot market.
And on the 1%, that was posted by a disgruntled trader..just think about it, review FF and see the number of new posts from experienced traders, read what's pertinent and you should have a better idea of how this market works, what to do and what to discount. And just in case you missed it, the last one relates to posts from disgruntled traders..

Trading in the AM or PM is not important but the strategy you trade with, that assumes importance. The reason some may prefer to trade at one time or the other, would relate to a particular market opening or closing. For example, I prefer to trade both Japan opening and NY opening..
Hope this helps
  • #95
  • Nov 2, 2013 1:14pm Nov 2, 2013 1:14pm
Quoting Turveyd
{quote} Big news is bad, especially if it gaps 100pips instantly cause your SL will likely fill at the worst price, a SL of 20 gets slapped for 100. I never hold over big news, intentionally, obviously it happens frequently, and never ever in my favour interestingly.
It happens many times when news went horribly against the trader and majority traders losses their capital so its not an easy job to trade with consistent winning so always make and stick to trading plans.
  • #96
  • Nov 3, 2013 6:33am Nov 3, 2013 6:33am
Well bike is all here and built and ready to role, better put my focus back onto trading, hey I'm easily distracted by bikes!!

I have been watching though, and basically if I trade with the M5 60sma's direction and respect my ranges then I'm golden. always think that won't work, then it does, need to get over that and just take the damn trade, this is the thing holding me back from getting my own jet currently.


Maybe this week, I'll reverse above, likely not!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #97
  • Nov 3, 2013 8:16am Nov 3, 2013 8:16am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} What I meant is to tell everyone that hard work is needed to succeed in trading. Just like everything else in life .
Sounds like if you work hard at it, you can even win at casino. It is often quoted that 90% or more of retail forex speculators lose money. The casino roulette black/red gives about a 49% win rate. A 49% win rate is better than a 10% win rate in forex. It seems hard work would be better spent at the casino.
  • #98
  • Nov 3, 2013 8:45am Nov 3, 2013 8:45am
Based on my experience I am not a professional traders,having 6 months of experience and what I comments is purely based on my 150 trades.
Let me tell you very clear forex market is very simple but the way we handle it makes very complex and hard..
Any thing in this world can be done either in easy method and hard way ..Its all about ask question your self again and again to make it simple..
we know clearly in this market only two kind of peoples are there one is buyers and another one is seller there are three possible traders are out hear.
1.Trader A who Just want only buy
2.Trader B who Just want only sell
3.Trader C who want to buy and sell
FOrex market has three possible outcome
1.Uptrend
2.down trend
3.Range bound trend.

Trader A who want to only buy will be trading only uptrend and he is not going loss in Forex and probability of winning is more higher
Trader B who Just want only sell will be trading only down trend and he is not going loss in Forex and makes simple ..
Trader C who trades in all (Uptrend/down Trend & range bound trend) .

Out out this possible three traders A & B keeps trading system has simple and Traders C makes system very hard and more complex .
Traders A & B are professional traders and Trader C is possibly who don't understand the system and who make system complex..

probability of winning is more higher for trader A & B but for trader C Probability of loosing he higher ..
Hear is another interesting fact ..after doing 150 trades I realized I am also a trader C but good this I realized this fact with out my account getting blown up

You who ever reads this post you please tell me if you belongs to Trader A/B Or C?
  • #99
  • Nov 4, 2013 12:52am Nov 4, 2013 12:52am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Sounds like if you work hard at it, you can even win at casino. It is often quoted that 90% or more of retail forex speculators lose money. The casino roulette black/red gives about a 49% win rate. A 49% win rate is better than a 10% win rate in forex. It seems hard work would be better spent at the casino.
You're confusing win rate with failure rate. Betting red/black at roulette might result in a win rate that's slightly less than 50%, but 100% of punters who play for long enough, are mathematically bound to lose.
  • #100
  • Nov 4, 2013 5:00am Nov 4, 2013 5:00am
Quoting BeginnerJoe
{quote} Sounds like if you work hard at it, you can even win at casino. It is often quoted that 90% or more of retail forex speculators lose money. The casino roulette black/red gives about a 49% win rate. A 49% win rate is better than a 10% win rate in forex. It seems hard work would be better spent at the casino.
Lol mate. You had luck at Casino ?
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