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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #128,521
  • Nov 1, 2013 2:59am Nov 1, 2013 2:59am
Quoting Chelski
{quote} Hi Stark, I traded this on the daily, for me i was in .8574 with .8700 the FTA. Regards.
Hey Chelski, how did you get in at 8574 on daily? I got nothing tradeable around there...
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,522
  • Nov 1, 2013 3:11am Nov 1, 2013 3:11am
Quoting prasad99
{quote} Hey Mike That is a nice post. I still have dont have a consistent strategy with respect to break evens. There are two break even stories that play in my mind all the time...
This is a real focus for me at the moment as well. I've been seeing too many trades take me out at BE then go off to do whatever I thought they would. From a 'protecting capital' perspective this is fine, like you say, but not so great for growing my account - especially when I called it correctly in the first place.

I read somewhere the other day (maybe the Fail Better thread?) that a problem with going to BE is that that level is often arbitrary and means nothing to the market. The way that we use s/r to enter should mitigate that to some extent, but I think I may be favouring putting stops somewhere sensible, even if it means not quite going to BE. Of course it helps that I've become much more picky of late, so the trades (in theory) are stronger, and I have more faith that the s/r will hold. I'm not suggesting we use massive stops, but if I can put a stop behind a decent pivot that's not too far from my BE, then that seems like a possible way forward.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,523
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:04am Nov 1, 2013 5:04am
USDTRY 4 HR BREAKOUT

Neytiri
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  • #128,524
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:19am Nov 1, 2013 5:19am
Quoting Neytiri
USDTRY 4 HR BREAKOUT Neytiri {image}
Only my opinion as always, but I would've thought that your stop could be behind one of the EMAs - reducing your risk. If you're buying on the breakout (guessing about 0.9900 - I don't trade this pair), then the trade is invalidated long before it hits your stop below the buob. Does that make sense? I just mean that if price gets back to the EMAs it's almost certainly not worked...
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,525
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:33am Nov 1, 2013 5:33am
Quoting stark1
{quote} Only my opinion as always, but I would've thought that your stop could be behind one of the EMAs - reducing your risk. If you're buying on the breakout (guessing about 0.9900 - I don't trade this pair), then the trade is invalidated long before it hits your stop below the buob. Does that make sense? I just mean that if price gets back to the EMAs it's almost certainly not worked...
That is a good idea too.

N
  • #128,526
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:37am Nov 1, 2013 5:37am
Here's something similar to something asked a few posts back. I had an order on this from the beginning of the week, but thankfully pulled it after one of the other CAD pairs blew through like this one.

Does anyone have any suggestions as to why it hasn't held? Or are there any clues in the chart that pre-empted it?
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When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,527
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:04am Nov 1, 2013 6:04am
Quoting stark1
{quote} Hey Chelski, how did you get in at 8574 on daily? I got nothing tradeable around there...
Hi Stark,

8574 was the low of the big move down, it closed 8584 i think, we went lower but the momentum wasn't there if you look at bar size.

When we then had those 2 doji style bars that held the level of 8574 i was in.

Not how everyone would trade it but we were printing lower lows on 4h and i liked the space back up to 8700.

I hope this helps / makes sense.
  • #128,528
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:22am Nov 1, 2013 6:22am
Quoting Chelski
{quote} Hi Stark, 8574 was the low of the big move down, it closed 8584 i think, we went lower but the momentum wasn't there if you look at bar size. When we then had those 2 doji style bars that held the level of 8574 i was in. Not how everyone would trade it but we were printing lower lows on 4h and i liked the space back up to 8700. I hope this helps / makes sense.
Wow...excellent call.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,529
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:13am Nov 1, 2013 7:13am
Quoting stark1
{quote} Wow...excellent call.

I have the seniors on this board to thank.

I would like to single out Ghous as I followed his fake out / order flow tread and could feel the fog clearing with every post.

The red line is a low that goes back almost 2 years. I know this isn't exactly how others see the fakeout but I liked the over all story.

I don't used indicators but i think MACD was printing divergence too.
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  • #128,530
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:03am Nov 1, 2013 8:03am
I think this is a good level from EUR CAD with space to touch trade or look for a PA signal (it also has confluence with a previous swing high).
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  • #128,531
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:44am Nov 1, 2013 8:44am
Quoting stark1
{quote} Hey ghous Perhaps everyone else is cleverer than me, but yes, that's too confusing - primarily the first sentence. Could you clarify it if you have time please? Thanks
Hey Stark,

I wasn't quite my best self writing that, so sorry for all the confusion it might have created.

I was simply pointing out that I don't delay my entires on traditional james16 trades as I do with my fake out trades as I am normally not taking j16 trades that are headed into traffic hence providing the need for that kind of improvisation. With fake outs the story and dynamics can be slightly different and strong enough in some cases to allow me to simply delay the entry and wait for another trigger bar beyond an initial trouble area that they setup maybe headed into.

hope I made it clearer this time.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,532
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:58am Nov 1, 2013 8:58am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Stark, I wasn't quite my best self writing that, so sorry for all the confusion it might have created. I was simply pointing out that I don't delay my entires on traditional james16 trades as I do with my fake out trades as I am normally not taking j16 trades that are headed into traffic hence providing the need for that kind of improvisation. With fake outs the story and dynamics can be slightly different and strong enough in some cases to allow me to simply delay the entry and wait for another trigger bar beyond an initial trouble...
Hey, no problem at all. I hope your best self is back and ready for the weekend.

Clarification much appreciated, thanks. I thought that was what you meant, but wondered if you had some fiendishly clever technique for james16 stuff that I'd missed. Have a good one sir.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,533
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:03am Nov 1, 2013 9:03am
Quoting stark1
Here's something similar to something asked a few posts back. I had an order on this from the beginning of the week, but thankfully pulled it after one of the other CAD pairs blew through like this one. Does anyone have any suggestions as to why it hasn't held? Or are there any clues in the chart that pre-empted it? {image}
I don't know why it didn't hold. But I don't need that info either. I know from my exposure to fake outs that initial breakouts like that are extremely vulnerable to be mere traps. I am not sure how many would have wanted to jump in seeing that strong weekly close above but I do know that's exactly what the sellers here were looking for.

Here's another one I shared my thoughts on earlier here which shows a BEOB seemingly breaking out of a major trend line, round number and former swing lows. Price loses momentum and we shoot above. As I type I am seeing the high of the BEOB get taken out.

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Point simply being, that I have never come to trust initial breakouts to the extent that I would actually trade them. The only time they make sense to me, is when we have a BIG BAR breaking out of a very sure wedge/consolidation box which visually appeals to me like a coiled spring being let go. In the USD/SGD example I shared and in the very chart you posted, I don't see any such buildup prior to the breakout which just gets me ready to start expecting a fake out.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,534
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:08am Nov 1, 2013 9:08am
Quoting Chelski
{quote} I have the seniors on this board to thank. I would like to single out Ghous as I followed his fake out / order flow tread and could feel the fog clearing with every post. The red line is a low that goes back almost 2 years. I know this isn't exactly how others see the fakeout but I liked the over all story. I don't used indicators but i think MACD was printing divergence too. {image}
Nice!

This one was great to watch for me and is quite similar to the CAD/CHF you posted in the way price built up to that fake out. Obviously too gappy and exotic for a trade but worth the watch

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,535
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:11am Nov 1, 2013 9:11am
Quoting ghous
Here's a setup on the NZD/CHF. Another typical fake out scenario with price dropping hard under the prior swing low and then completely losing momentum. Yesterday's BUOB took out the low a bit but it was a late sessions surge which ended up in a BUOB by the end. The trigger for me was the small bullish inside bar right after the bar that popped under the swing low and the RN with stop under the prior's bar low. Its been very slowly going the last couple of months. Glad to see things starting to move a bit. Unfortunately we die out again towards...
This one hit my take profit and I am out at this major trouble area.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,536
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:14am Nov 1, 2013 9:14am
Quoting ghous
{quote} I don't know why it didn't hold. But I don't need that info either. I know from my exposure to fake outs that initial breakouts like that are extremely vulnerable to be mere traps... g.
Wow, what a reply - thank you again. I've seen you talk about that fakeout stuff but missed that the key (for want of a better word) for you is the coiled/big bar thing. I've recently been trying to reconcile that aspect of your method with not only jarroo's method, but the whole concept of support and resistance (and clearly your method is excellent!).

I would guess that in my head I'm being too simplistic about the whole thing..support turns into resistance, right...? But not always..

[I'm desperately trying to think of something to explain all my thinking, but my brain is failing me miserably at the moment - more later when it's back online].

And thanks ghous.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro.
  • #128,537
  • Edited 10:24am Nov 1, 2013 9:58am | Edited 10:24am
Quoting stark1
Here's something similar to something asked a few posts back. I had an order on this from the beginning of the week, but thankfully pulled it after one of the other CAD pairs blew through like this one. Does anyone have any suggestions as to why it hasn't held? Or are there any clues in the chart that pre-empted it? {image}
Price accelerated into the level. I never play breakouts if I see price accelerates.
The reverse is available for reversals like pin bars or fake outs. If I see price accelerates I'm more willing to play a fake out/pin bar than if it doesn't accelerate.

I want to also see a bull/bear trap for breakouts. Many times this comes in an outside bar forming but it's not always the case (and not 100% of outside bars represent a bull/bear trap but a good rule of thumb is to trade if you see an outside bar and price doesn't accelerate into the breakout level). I prefer to look for breakouts at levels where price tried to break them many times, I don't play breakouts at single swing highs/lows. I think strong trend lines break outs also work (but don't look to buy into an ascending trend line or sell into a descending trend line) but don't have much experience with them (they are riskier imo than box breakouts).
  • #128,538
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:20pm Nov 1, 2013 4:20pm
Quoting stark1
Here's something similar to something asked a few posts back. I had an order on this from the beginning of the week, but thankfully pulled it after one of the other CAD pairs blew through like this one. Does anyone have any suggestions as to why it hasn't held? Or are there any clues in the chart that pre-empted it? {image}
This is probably why Mike mentions he likes his breakouts to return to the breakout out point to be followed by a price action bar confirming direction. In this case the breakout returned past the breakout point and invalidated any potential long.

Example: price breaks out of the top of a consolidation box. We wait for it to return back towards the box and then bounce (Pin Bar/buob etc) off the top of that consolidation box to confirm a long trade. Did not happen here -thus no trade and no loss
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #128,539
  • Edited 9:12pm Nov 1, 2013 8:58pm | Edited 9:12pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Stark, I wasn't quite my best self writing that, so sorry for all the confusion it might have created. I was simply pointing out that I don't delay my entires on traditional james16 trades as I do with my fake out trades as I am normally not taking j16 trades that are headed into traffic hence providing the need for that kind of improvisation. With fake outs the story and dynamics can be slightly different and strong enough in some cases to allow me to simply delay the entry and wait for another trigger bar beyond an initial trouble...


To me your post was almost clear. I think it is sometimes packed with so much information that some beginners including myself find it difficult to understand in the first read.

The only statement that I was finding it difficult to understand was
"
when I do plan on trading a PA bar, then it really has to be special enough to not allow for any cheeky alterations to negate any space concerns as such"

which means that

When you are making j16 trades, large price action bars at great locations obviates the need for improvisations that have to be performed due to the presence of minor FTAs close to point of entry. These improvisations such as delaying the entry are some times performed during fakeout setups.

correct?

Neytiri
  • #128,540
  • Nov 1, 2013 10:49pm Nov 1, 2013 10:49pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} This is probably why Mike mentions he likes his breakouts to return to the breakout out point to be followed by a price action bar confirming direction. In this case the breakout returned past the breakout point and invalidated any potential long. Example: price breaks out of the top of a consolidation box. We wait for it to return back towards the box and then bounce (Pin Bar/buob etc) off the top of that consolidation box to confirm a long trade. Did not happen here -thus no trade and no loss
Actually you'll notice Mike taking initial breakouts of strong patterns and consolidation boxes and it makes perfect sense. If price is really popping out of a major compression it may not require that pull back at all specially if you have a nice PA bar as your trigger i.e a big outside bar with a clear strong close above the consolidation.

Waiting for a pull back is better, in fact needed, when we're talking about price breaking out of a major region without a prior buildup. As that means there will still be some orders in favor of the breakout resting at the breakout point and price will need to hit most of them to gather enough muscle to push for the breakout which creates sure room for a pull back play.

g.
I believe . . .
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