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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #541
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:06am Oct 31, 2013 6:06am
Quoting Davit
Hi KADC I still have hangover from REd Sox party last night so I will respond to your posts later when I am coherent. Enjoy the Halloween
Oh, right, it's Hallowe'en! I've got two pumpkins to carve and I haven't bought any candy yet. Clearly the rest of the world is in a similar fix which explains why there is less than 0.05% movement anywhere. Spooky.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #542
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:42pm Oct 31, 2013 5:42pm
Hallowe'en was rained out here. There should be a standard rain-day for when this happens.

Though my EUR/USD call failed (next target is the 100% retracement and rising trend-line support at 1.34725), GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD have held this level (though they've also failed to make any gains). Shorting any EUR cross looks good.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #543
  • Nov 1, 2013 1:50am Nov 1, 2013 1:50am
The non-data, non-news based drop in the Euro and Pound at German? (it's a holiday in France and Italy) open (Yen and minors were relatively unfazed) placed EUR/NZD just above the 76.4% retracement. Daily RSI suggests the move will continue down to a full 100% retracement to 1.6015 (1.6025 is close enough for me). I'd like confirmation in other time frames to confirm continuation but as long as EUR/USD remains bearish and NZD/USD remains bullish (or neutral) this seems like a good target.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #544
  • Nov 1, 2013 4:40am Nov 1, 2013 4:40am
Cable has broken support and should be heading to 1.58950 for a 100% retrace like EUR/USD, but both pairs are sitting at hourly RSI support in oversold so I can't add a short from this position yet I don't have strong confidence that there will be a pull-back today to short from.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #545
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:04am Nov 1, 2013 5:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Closed all profitable shorts on GU at 6040 and added 3 new shorts on GC 6780-90 area.GC shorts already in profit.I am targeting 400pips south. With positive swap I can afford to wait. Regards

Cool...looks like those GC trades are in the money. In the lase weeks I got a little anxious with my limit trading and moved it up to 30m/1H timeframes...didn't take any big losses but got a little lost and misplaced my vision. So, it's cool...just working up and down the timeframes...gotta stick to the H4/daily from now on and only take the sweet ones.

Here was a sweet one on UC. But, due to my fidgeting with lower timeframes...and lost vision, I pulled my orders and missed it. Great harmonic though.

Bryno
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  • #546
  • Nov 1, 2013 5:27am Nov 1, 2013 5:27am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I specially like when Mark talks about fear of the market comparing to child getting bitten by a dog.I like Mark's honest concept of probabilities. I have to reread this book again.I find that as my trading gets better I see lot more wisdom in the same books I read previously. Certain things resonates better with experience.True in everything.I see so much more in Arshile Gorky's work now then I did 20yrs ego.Same time what I valued 20 yrs ego now seems trivial....Beauty of life. I am very focused and confident now strangely even though...

Yeah...that is a good analogy, most of his ideas are really interesting in how he relates things to trading. I like how talks about working to hard to set up a trade. Confluence has taken on a fresh meaning to me in recent weeks. The good set-ups seem to fit right into place...entries are clear, targets are clear...risk is fairly clear. Kind of like the UC set-up I just posted...it was so clear, just had to wait...as you say, trading is waiting.

Also, interesting what you say about things resonating over time and with experience. I remember in architecture school...6 years of pretty much the same shit over and over...but, that kind of stuff is complex and takes time to sink in...similar to trading. I think anyway.

Gorky seems cool...I'm kind of a Duchamp and Bacon fan myself.

Green Pips Davit, glad your not too bent out of shape on that GC drawdown
Bryno



Glad your feeling good even after the GC drawdown...thanks on the GJ.
  • #547
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:25am Nov 1, 2013 6:25am
Closed GC shorts at 1.6640 on 3 positions gain of +420 pips
I expect a bounce up to 1.6650 and may enter again short
my daily ADR was 113% which to me meant take your money because next week things could go up.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #548
  • Edited 6:41am Nov 1, 2013 6:30am | Edited 6:41am
Quoting KADC
Cable has broken support and should be heading to 1.58950 for a 100% retrace like EUR/USD, but both pairs are sitting at hourly RSI support in oversold so I can't add a short from this position yet I don't have strong confidence that there will be a pull-back today to short from.

I am looking forward to short again on GU, EU, EC,GC
Nice charts bro
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #549
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:39am Nov 1, 2013 6:39am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Yeah...that is a good analogy, most of his ideas are really interesting in how he relates things to trading. I like how talks about working to hard to set up a trade. Confluence has taken on a fresh meaning to me in recent weeks. The good set-ups seem to fit right into place...entries are clear, targets are clear...risk is fairly clear. Kind of like the UC set-up I just posted...it was so clear, just had to wait...as you say, trading is waiting. Also, interesting what you say about things resonating over time and with experience. I remember...

Speaking of confluence check out how price bounced up from 200EMA to a pip.
If you keep your lot sizes reasonable to account size then leaving it alone becomes easier in terms of letting the trade work in your favor.I certainly learned that lesson hard way or shall I say costly way.My original GC positions were too big compare to account hence I closed out of fear.Had my positions been reasonable I would of let them be alone until profit.
Regards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #550
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:44am Nov 1, 2013 6:44am
Quoting KADC
Over the years the economic calendar has become a sort-of Lovecraftian monster, slowly eating away at my sanity. Despite knowing how the market works, my rational mind still recoils when I see my charts --all of them -- go crazy in reaction to the FOMC saying, exactly as expected, \"nothing has changed and so neither are we doing anything different\". Why bother to have data and press releases at all? Someone should just say \"one, two, three, go\" considering how little bearing the subsequent moves have with regard to the content of the information...

agree 100% and also manipulations as well like Carney giving an interview in a newspaper which caused massive gap and 150pips up.Content was the usual "I see recovery ahead..."
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #551
  • Nov 1, 2013 6:59am Nov 1, 2013 6:59am
Quoting Davit
{quote} agree 100% and also manipulations as well like Carney giving an interview in a newspaper which caused massive gap and 150pips up.Content was the usual \"I see recovery ahead...\"
I find it hard to believe that professional traders responsible for shifting millions and billions and sometimes trillions in assorted currencies would make orders based on anything other than market data or announcements which involve actual plans. I understand manipulation -- that's just greed -- but when they do it based on what is obviously political talk they are really adding insult to injury.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #552
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:03am Nov 1, 2013 7:03am
Quoting KADC
{quote} I find it hard to believe that professional traders responsible for shifting millions and billions and sometimes trillions in assorted currencies would make orders based on anything other than market data or announcements which involve actual plans. I understand manipulation -- that's just greed -- but when they do it based on what is obviously political talk they are really adding insult to injury.

I specially dislike Carney.The guy worked 13years at Goldman Sachs and knows how to manipulate.This is why I have been bearish on the pound because there is little substance on "recovery"
Euro zone including GB is not projected to grow much until 2017.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #553
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:24am Nov 1, 2013 7:24am
Placed Short limits on GC at 1.67 2positions
I anticipate knee jerk reaction up and hopefully get triggered.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #554
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:35am Nov 1, 2013 7:35am
watching UC for shorts but not yet.Price clearly rejected 450 but this being friday I think market is not interested to push price up.
Looking for 480-500 area to short.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #555
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:40am Nov 1, 2013 7:40am
US Dollar Index hit resistance at 80.8 and it's going to take another big manipulative push to break above. EUR/USD, Cable, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are all very close to support and USD/YEN very close to resistance.

All movement has effectively stopped so I think the rest of the world has come to the same conclusion as I and is wondering if it's worth waiting the last couple hundred pips to enter for reversal or get in now because it's not worth entering for the small move to support/resistance and I don't want to enter assuming continuation until support/resistance is actually broken.

If all the pairs were just a little bit closer I'd enter for reversal now with a stop on the other side of support, but that's just slightly outside my price comfort zone so I guess I have no choice but to wait.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #556
  • Nov 1, 2013 7:45am Nov 1, 2013 7:45am
Quoting KADC
US Dollar Index hit resistance at 80.8 and it's going to take another big manipulative push to break above. EUR/USD, Cable, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD are all very close to support and USD/YEN very close to resistance. All movement has effectively stopped so I think the rest of the world has come to the same conclusion as I and is wondering if it's worth waiting the last couple hundred pips to enter for reversal or get in now because it's not worth entering for the small move to support/resistance and I don't want to enter assuming continuation until...

also this being Friday.We could see continuation of Bear next week.We should not trade anymore today.
Just a note how fibs work beautifully specially on 78.6-88.6 zone which is major harmonic confluence.UC daily
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #557
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:04am Nov 1, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Davit
{quote} also this being Friday.We could see continuation of Bear next week.We should not trade anymore today. Just a note how fibs work beautifully specially on 78.6-88.6 zone which is major harmonic confluence.UC daily {image}
Wise words. I normally don't enter new trades after 10 a.m. EST (with certain economic calendar based exceptions) and doubly so on a Friday, but after such large moves I can't help but wait to see if an across-the-board reversal occurs since I'm here at my computer anyway.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #558
  • Nov 1, 2013 8:50am Nov 1, 2013 8:50am
USD/CAD has been very well behaved, generally. The only snag at the moment is hitting that descending support line. Right now it's halfway between support and resistance so I need to wait for it to decide which way it's going first.

If it should break out of this narrowing consolidation to the upside, the 27% extension coincides with the September high and thus that would be my upside target.

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #559
  • Nov 1, 2013 9:20am Nov 1, 2013 9:20am
I noticed after the US Dollar Index hit 80.80 there was a cycling through the US$ crosses to bring them all near, but not to, their respective support and resistance targets. First Euro, then Pound, then Yen, then Aussie, then Kiwi, then Loonie. This is exactly the set-up for a co-ordinated (AKA manipulated) move to break through support/resistance. I haven't checked it against non-US$ pairs.

If these pairs first move to hit their targets then that possibility becomes far less likely as these manipulative moves usually rely on the cascading effect of triggering stops as much as brute force ...though there is nothing to prevent "reloading" for another attempt. On the other hand, perhaps prices will be gently nudged towards their targets on purpose to make way for the grand reversal as it's been quite some time since most pairs were pushed outside of their consolidation zones.

The best course of action, of course, is to take no action and wait for either the breakout or the bounce. It's just that I miss the days when you could count on getting in right at the top and bottom if your technical analysis was correct. Now, billion dollar ham-fisting by the banks, central and otherwise, is all too common.

That's my rant -- I feel better now.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #560
  • Nov 1, 2013 11:18am Nov 1, 2013 11:18am
Quoting KADC
I noticed after the US Dollar Index hit 80.80 there was a cycling through the US$ crosses to bring them all near, but not to, their respective support and resistance targets. First Euro, then Pound, then Yen, then Aussie, then Kiwi, then Loonie. This is exactly the set-up for a co-ordinated (AKA manipulated) move to break through support/resistance. I haven't checked it against non-US$ pairs. If these pairs first move to hit their targets then that possibility becomes far less likely as these manipulative moves usually rely on the cascading effect...
My trading online for next week


Short GU 1.60 (if it goes there or close to it)
Short GC 1.67 and above with full force
Short UC 500 and above
Long USD/CHF 90 and below (regret getting out too early here) Hoping second chance.I had fantastic numbers here but took early insignificant profit.
Enjoy your weekend
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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