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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,221
  • Oct 26, 2013 5:42am Oct 26, 2013 5:42am
Quoting yaakruay
Hi Binnie, Found this while browsing through the thread..from an earlier member known as Palmer. Good read for me on the about 1 hour trading. Having read this i have gone back to the beginning and watched the 4 hour vid on youtube Plus started at the beginning to glean more information. I haven't got enough wit about me yet with the 4 hour to be jumping down to h1...but will be reading and learning about.. I like the idea of identifying some part of the system ie you mentioned the 3 sisters in a previous post... and then focusing in on that until...
Cheers buddy - long weekend here in NZ so you have given me some homework
  • #26,222
  • Oct 26, 2013 8:03am Oct 26, 2013 8:03am
Binnie do you see nzdusd going up on Monday or next week?
  • #26,223
  • Oct 26, 2013 2:50pm Oct 26, 2013 2:50pm
Quoting trexy123
Binnie do you see nzdusd going up on Monday or next week?
Hi there Trexy
ARROW summed it up real good & I agree with that post too.
We have seen 3 attempts to stay strongly above that 0.8500 level before the RYTHYM stepped in & re-set the Direction on us. The 200 has now been broken with some strong selling & the Macd is making Lower Lows.
The next support ( as Arrow identified ) is around 0.8230 and if that don't hold, there is a good chance that Price will hunt down the 365 as well. That then would leave a possibility that the 0.8230 could be turned into some sort of Resistance level. The Macd is also approaching Over- sold region if I read Phillip's teachings correctly so I guess we just wait for Market to let us know when we are allowed to come over & play
Monday is Holiday here in NZ so be careful jumping to conclusions. Thursday is also Bank Rate Day and even though Interest rates are expected to remain on hold, who really knows ???

Good to have you on board. What do you reckon might happen ?

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  • #26,224
  • Oct 26, 2013 3:51pm Oct 26, 2013 3:51pm
Hi there Binnie,

I think most of us will agree with you.
There is a good chance that the kiwi will hunt down the 365.
Just be careful about the news

I will watch the kiwi next week.
Own your own mind.
  • #26,225
  • Oct 27, 2013 4:05am Oct 27, 2013 4:05am
My take on Nzd/Usd

First chart.
Trendlines from weekly and daily.

Solid support at price now...good time for a breather and a retrace back to 8, 89 or trendline.
Macd could show a RB to show counter trend..

Next Chart..
What a mess but Philip Nell uses 161 extension on retrace it's on his youtube video (can't find the time on the video now)

I have made 3 identical fibs copied from the top one (orange)
The first 2 have hit the target points look at the 161 orange and yellow.

If my coffee induced analysis is correct and the third fib works hahaha
price will hit the target area supported by the things mentioned below.
365
161 extension
.8200 BRN

I will look for a counter trend up and then target the big move down

Of course I am talking a load of bollox..
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  • #26,226
  • Oct 28, 2013 11:45am Oct 28, 2013 11:45am
the rhythm showdown..

Yes Yaakuray, I think the big move down is in

https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-M...o/usdnzdh4.jpg
Own your own mind.
  • #26,227
  • Oct 28, 2013 1:26pm Oct 28, 2013 1:26pm
Arrow or anyone else....,

Are you waiting for a retrace up towards 89 before selling?

Are you going to go for a counter trend move up?

Decisions hahaha
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  • #26,228
  • Oct 28, 2013 4:40pm Oct 28, 2013 4:40pm
Quoting yaakruay
Arrow or anyone else...., Are you waiting for a retrace up towards 89 before selling? Are you going to go for a counter trend move up? Decisions hahaha {image}
Hi Guys ,
Nice charts - great to see clean lines. Kiwi is resting. Building some supporters or retractors - don't know which yet. Definitely no intention to look for a CT here. If it can make it down to say the 0.8200 level and gets a huge rejection there , then there may be a chance to look at a Counter-Trend play. Personally, I am happy to wait for some movement back to at least the 21 and then a TC move further down. The 200 does not seem to be bothering PA at the moment so looks like any move down might go without too much trouble.

My attention today is now on The AudNzd. Nice PA movement & Rythym is calling the shots here IMO.
What do you guys reckon?

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  • #26,229
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:31am Oct 29, 2013 2:31am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Guys , Nice charts - great to see clean lines. Kiwi is resting. Building some supporters or retractors - don't know which yet. Definitely no intention to look for a CT here. If it can make it down to say the 0.8200 level and gets a huge rejection there , then there may be a chance to look at a Counter-Trend play. Personally, I am happy to wait for some movement back to at least the 21 and then a TC move further down. The 200 does not seem to be bothering PA at the moment so looks like any move down might go without too much trouble....


Brilliant thank you...

It took me a while to find this currency pair in my MT4... hahaha

This is what i can see a few hours after your post.

Am i on the right track...we are resting and waiting still i think...

What is a good entry signal??? I have no idea...

thanks
Richard
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  • #26,230
  • Oct 29, 2013 4:03am Oct 29, 2013 4:03am
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} Brilliant thank you... It took me a while to find this currency pair in my MT4... hahaha This is what i can see a few hours after your post. Am i on the right track...we are resting and waiting still i think... What is a good entry signal??? I have no idea... thanks Richard {image}
Hi Richard - just shows how the markets will change on you when you think you have found a possible setup
Amazing how your chart differs from mine but that does not matter at all. We trade what we see right ?
Your chart shows that you have 4 Macd bars forming a nice round bottom forming - I don't know what it shows right now but if you were to get a Green bar to close ( higher low ) and price closes above the 21 as well as the 8 , there is a good reason to try & get back into the Bullish Trend with the help of the Macd. It may not happen this close but could give you reason to consider a ZeroLine crossover . Just a Thought . In my case there are not enough macd bars working for me to do this so I will sit this out probably until the Rythym is back in working order
I will be interested to see what your chart is showing right now buddy.
BTW - these are only my thoughts and I trust you are not relying on them to make your trades - don't forget I am still learning this method too so I only trade on Sim

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  • #26,231
  • Oct 29, 2013 4:18am Oct 29, 2013 4:18am
@ TRADEMIN:

Hi Yvon,
I have a query for you if you don't mind.
What is the significance of Price relative to the 21 & 89. The charts attached show the 2 options & I am not clear on what I should read into these Price Action scenarios.
Cheers for your help

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B.
  • #26,232
  • Oct 29, 2013 12:53pm Oct 29, 2013 12:53pm
Hello, how is the strategy working in 2013?

I am interested in risk/reward
  • #26,233
  • Oct 29, 2013 1:53pm Oct 29, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Richard - just shows how the markets will change on you when you think you have found a possible setup Amazing how your chart differs from mine but that does not matter at all. We trade what we see right ? Your chart shows that you have 4 Macd bars forming a nice round bottom forming - I don't know what it shows right now but if you were to get a Green bar to close ( higher low ) and price closes above the 21 as well as the 8 , there is a good reason to try & get back into the Bullish Trend with the help of the Macd. It may...

My charts as of 18.30 29/10 UK

Don't worry about trading....I only trade a live account..between 10pence and £1 per pip...(usually 10pence)

I tried Sim but did not have any feelings for it.. I prefer to put real money into it as i find i pay more attention..

It's nice to bounce ideas off other people and we are all on the same page (4 hour system)

If i take a trade its because what i have analysised and made up myself..... No worries

But i will just sit it out and learn... (no trade for me on this pair yet)

Happy days...
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  • #26,234
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:51pm Oct 29, 2013 2:51pm
This is what i am watching for my trade this week.

I like the idea of a nice retracement up from the 200 (not sure if this is strong enough )
Bounce from bottom trendline channel
Near BUT under BRN
Far from 8, 21 ( needs to hit them at some stage)

Just waiting for a green bar on candle closing then watching retrace and may join in once price is over BRN and what time this happens..

That is my watch for this week and that's enough for me at the moment...

I am 33 pips UP this month don't want to give em back to the buggers...
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  • #26,235
  • Oct 29, 2013 5:11pm Oct 29, 2013 5:11pm
Quoting sk8buc
Hello, how is the strategy working in 2013? I am interested in risk/reward



The system still works great its just the pesky humans that mess it up...

Welcome aboard hope to see your charts, ideas and questions.


There is little risk and lots of reward if you study and learn the system....
  • #26,236
  • Oct 29, 2013 9:53pm Oct 29, 2013 9:53pm
Quoting yaakruay
This is what i am watching for my trade this week. I like the idea of a nice retracement up from the 200 (not sure if this is strong enough ) Bounce from bottom trendline channel Near BUT under BRN Far from 8, 21 ( needs to hit them at some stage) Just waiting for a green bar on candle closing then watching retrace and may join in once price is over BRN and what time this happens.. That is my watch for this week and that's enough for me at the moment... I am 33 pips UP this month don't want to give em back to the buggers... {image}
agreed matey
Price gotta head back to the 21 sooner or later. When signal comes , we be ready

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  • #26,237
  • Oct 29, 2013 9:58pm Oct 29, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting sk8buc
Hello, how is the strategy working in 2013? I am interested in risk/reward
Greetings & welcome to our home
Strategy is solid and if you are a patient trader, you will do well here. There is so much on the Thread to digest but do yourself a huge favour and go through all of Phillip's Post #1.
Glad to help with any questions.
B.
  • #26,238
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:50am Oct 30, 2013 1:50am
6am UK
Aud/Usd

My thoughts early this morning.
It is Wednesday and we have been talking about this retrace for a week or more...
Is it due before the end of the month.

My chart is a bit messy with my writing but its what i see at the moment.

I like the idea of the copied fib from the first retrace matching this one that may come...that is spooky..

Because the 0 line hits the 21 and then the target 161 which Philip uses hits the 365 that would be nice confirmation of a target and plan forming.

Just need to wait for RB confirmation....

I may hit it early....... check the 1 hour and make a new posting
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  • #26,239
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:01am Oct 30, 2013 2:01am
I know very little about trading so this is probably clap trap but its what i see.

The 1 hour.

Macd formed nice RB grade up is nice and smooth at a good angle.
It's about to cross over the zero line to bullish mode.

Price has formed a LL and it hit the lower TL too.

My main concern before hitting the counter trend is the BRN we are butting up against.

Do we wait to see if there is a bounce down or will price sit their for a while before bursting through.

I will sit it out and wait to see what happens....Just my thoughts on what i can see..


Ps

Target on 1 hour is the 89 which is the 21 on the 4 hour.
I will be watching on my phone at work..but the macd does not change colour on the mt4 android app...so can only guess its colour by looking at the length of the bars in relation to the previous ones.
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  • #26,240
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:50pm Oct 30, 2013 1:50pm
How not to trade

I went for the CT trade this morning before i went to work.

Target 21...

But price went up a little and then what i call bonkers down...

Fatal mistake of novice trader...

I saw my trade losing and yes, you guessed it kept moving my stop loss

So, now i am stuck in a trade losing 50 pips and not wanting to take another trade until this one finishes.... but now my stop loss is 100 pips

This is how not too trade...perfect example..

This is a learning curve..just wanted to share my experiences...

We may get the retrace up yet as bonkers price was driven by news...we can only hope
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