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Gambling VS Trading

  • #21
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:37am Oct 25, 2013 1:37am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Odds can be calculated if the rule is strict enough if news element is not included =) News outcome is truly random half of the time, so it is not suggested to have it included within the winning odds calculation.
News outcomes are never random, they simply reveal information that was previously unseen or ignored. If you learn how economic indicators are calculated and how they affect buyers and sellers in different market/economic environments you can judge the odds of various scenarios more accurately than someone simply watching past price action or its derived indicators.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #22
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:40am Oct 25, 2013 1:40am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} News outcomes are never random, they simply reveal information that was previously unseen or ignored. If you learn how economic indicators are calculated and how they affect buyers and sellers in different market/economic environments you can judge the odds of various scenarios more accurately than someone simply watching past price action or its derived indicators.
Good one numbnuts. It's no wonder 95% of retail traders lose money.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #23
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:42am Oct 25, 2013 6:42am
Quoting warnisw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvZgaJALCTc
I don't really get videos like this and if you actually believe it then why are you here? I don't understand why anyone who does not believe that you can make money from the markets wants to spend time on a messageboard dedicated to how to make money from the markets. Seems an odd waste of their own time.
  • #24
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:56am Oct 25, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Trotty
{quote} I don't really get videos like this and if you actually believe it then why are you here? I don't understand why anyone who does not believe that you can make money from the markets wants to spend time on a messageboard dedicated to how to make money from the markets. Seems an odd waste of their own time.
Those who have nothing to do don't see it as a "waste" of time, but rather as a "purpose in life" to mock that at which they fail. ~PipTrapper~
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #25
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:59am Oct 25, 2013 7:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Those who have nothing to do don't see it as a \"waste\" of time, but rather as a \"purpose in life\" to mock that at which they fail. ~PipTrapper~
There was one guy on here who thought he was doing a 'public service' by it...
Anything can happen.
  • #26
  • Oct 25, 2013 8:30am Oct 25, 2013 8:30am
Quoting ddinnov
{quote} There was one guy on here who thought he was doing a 'public service' by it...
It is a public service... to gamblers, but not to traders.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #27
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:12pm Oct 28, 2013 5:12pm
For those of you who cannot turn a profit in FX, stop wasting your time trying. Instead, join the Libyan Militia and make millions in a few minutes.

Gunmen steal $55 million from Libyan central bank
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...Name=worldNews
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #28
  • Oct 28, 2013 5:42pm Oct 28, 2013 5:42pm
Quoting Yogi3o3
I had an interesting conversation with a friend of mine this weekend and thought I would share. First of all, I have been trading, supporting my family for the past several years. I live comfortably and am happy with my lifestyle. My wife doesn't work and we can do whatever we'd like. My friend who is a long time family friend is a professional craps player and former IBM engineer. He has played craps professionally for over 20 years. While I was at my dad's this weekend he stopped by and during our conversation he commented how he would never risk...
79/21?!?! Tell your dads friend to google wizard of odds. Casino will ALWAYS HAVE THE EDGE. Unless he is cheating with loaded dice.
  • #29
  • Oct 29, 2013 5:29pm Oct 29, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting smoknfx
what are you thinking, do you think that they designed this retail currency trading system to allow little old you, joe lunchbox, to steal money from the banks? you are too funny. this system of currency trading was designed from the ground up in order that the banks can quite quietly steal every penny that you deposit into your account. this is sortof why it is said many times that 95% of traders lose. but that aint the whole story... ALMOST ALL TRADERS LOSE. if you dont believe me, just ask around.. happy trading, zero/. http://smoknfx.com...
Really? Huh? Who would have thought though I have to say that being part of the 5%, makes me feel like I'm chopped liver..
But would love to know where you are getting these stats from? Any details?
  • #30
  • Oct 29, 2013 6:24pm Oct 29, 2013 6:24pm
So - I am as much of a n00b as it gets when it comes to FOREX but I do love my Online NL Hold'em Poker as well as my live NL Hold'em Poker. I also trade stocks, have a full-time career and own a side business (which funny enough makes more in terms of sales than what I make in my full-time career - which in itself is a pretty good salary).

I do not play anything else in the casino other than Poker. Reason being is that NL Hold'em Poker is the only game that is offered by the casino where you do not actually play against the house - the house, yes, has a rake - but you do play ultimately against your fellow human. As a result, imho, NL Hold'em is the least "gambly" out of all the gambling games out there - in theory, it is a 0-sum game where the edge one has ultimately boils down to whoever has the biggest set of balls (pardon-my expression) - of course, without doing some really foolish things - but those have been known to work too on occasion. Any other game in the casino is really set to have the advantage for the house.

I have a friend with whom we bought penny stocks - one would say "gambling" essentially, rather than investing. He would trade entirely on technical indicators - I, before purchasing a given stock would observe the company for a few months, do extensive research on their management, look at "market" trends - sometimes if possible, I would even wine-and-dine the CEO (mind you these are penny stocks so essentially, all these C-level execs were more than happy to get a free meal) and try to understand the person and their business model. For the record, I did not inside-trade but after such a dinner, I either had an increased level of confidence to invest or would drop the deal.

In my particular case I have thus minimized the risk in my stock investments by taking into account a lot more than just given technical indicators and I have to say that in the long run, it paid off more than for my friend.

As I am learning about FOREX, the book I'm reading is called "Day Trading and Swing Trading the Currency Market" Second Edition by Kathy Lien, and I have to say that she is suggesting not only a strictly technical approach to trading but also a "fundamentals" approach to trading - being aware of a given country's market economies, look at some macro-economic indicators, foreign policies, interest rates and use those to determine whether a given currency will go up or down in value against another one - but, from what I understand, she recommends using the technical indicators as a way to figure out the "entry" and "exit" points for the trade.

The above approach to me, makes foreign exchange trading a lot less like gambling and a lot more like investing - although, of course, one has to always be mindful of your risk management. I think it becomes a lot more like gambling if one only relies on technical indicators as opposed to also include "the big picture" into one's investment strategy.

Of course, being a total n00b in ForEx I might be totally wrong and have all my hopes and dreams bashed into nothingness but for now, that is my opinion.

Cheers,

bingoboy76
  • #31
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:54am Oct 30, 2013 6:54am
Quoting PipTrapper
For those of you who cannot turn a profit in FX, stop wasting your time trying. Instead, join the Libyan Militia and make millions in a few minutes. Gunmen steal $55 million from Libyan central bank http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...Name=worldNews

Yeah sounds like a very good plan
  • #32
  • Oct 31, 2013 1:12pm Oct 31, 2013 1:12pm
That sounds like a great idea, count me in..
  • #33
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:08pm Sep 29, 2020 1:08pm
Very nice observation. It will help many traders.
  • #34
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:34pm Sep 29, 2020 1:34pm
I allowed myself to gamble a few days ago.
I am just learning and stuff and I made around 50 € profit in a few hours.
I was going with the trend, all good and beautiful, followed the signals, not to greedy... until it kicked in.
The thirst, the desire for more and boom, lost all my profit minus another 20.
Next day, I was stupid enough not to take 20 € profit and leave it over night just to grab a 40 and guess what? - yes, you're right. I went MINUS 40 because I miscalculated the funds I've had in my account (in other words, I don't really know how to do it exactly, but you don't need a Master's for that). Why? Cause I saw the potential, blindfolded myself and wanted MORE and boom.
So I decided to slowly bring my account close to the amount I started with and withdraw almost everything, leaving myself a really small amount to trade, to be more specific 30 eurocents plus a 2.20 € bonus from XM.
Funny how patient I was all day and now I have a 3.83 € as total profit plus their bonus.
In other words: yes, trading is gambling only if you allow yourself.


Also quick question (sorry but I cannot open threads): I wanna short HSBC over night seeing that it's opening all the time lower. Let's say, for example, I charge my account around 50 € or whatever I need to go short 1 volume at 3.1234 (MT4, XM Micro account) right before closing. It will open, let's say, on 2.9876. Am I actually going to gain something with a really high leverage?
What if it goes up, to 4.0246 - I know I will I can lose my money but can I end up owing money to XM or something?
  • #35
  • Sep 29, 2020 1:51pm Sep 29, 2020 1:51pm
There are differences between Gambling and trading. Trading is an art. Though both have losses, in trading you can assume the result if you have enough knowledge.
  • #36
  • Sep 30, 2020 7:09am Sep 30, 2020 7:09am
Quoting Yogi3o3
I had an interesting conversation with a friend of mine this weekend and thought I would share. First of all, I have been trading, supporting my family for the past several years. I live comfortably and am happy with my lifestyle. My wife doesn't work and we can do whatever we'd like. My friend who is a long time family friend is a professional craps player and former IBM engineer. He has played craps professionally for over 20 years. While I was at my dad's this weekend he stopped by and during our conversation he commented how he would never risk...
Trading can in no means be compared with gambling. Trading requires detailed analysis, a good experience, correct strategy which all together needs a lot of skills so its definitely not gambling but a Scientific Art
  • #37
  • Sep 30, 2020 9:14am Sep 30, 2020 9:14am
Quoting ele020
{quote} Trading can in no means be compared with gambling. Trading requires detailed analysis, a good experience, correct strategy which all together needs a lot of skills so its definitely not gambling but a Scientific Art
Exactly. Treating trading as gambling is the fastest way to lose money.
  • #38
  • Oct 10, 2020 4:57am Oct 10, 2020 4:57am
There is no need to compare trade and gambling. These are completely different things, which are similar only to what is there, and there are a risk management system and an element of probability theory. Only in the case of gambling, there are dry calculations, which have no external influence. For example, the probability of falling out on the dice number 6 equals 1/6. In trade, however, many factors can affect the outcome of a certain event. And all options for the outcome of calculating a much harder than in gambling. For example, the market situation may change dramatically because of unforeseen news, and in our time, this often happens. Also, in trading, the trader's ability and his knowledge, rather than randomness, is more important. That's why I often say that it's wrong to compare trading and gambling. Because in trading income will bring you hard work, and in gambling - chance.
  • #39
  • Oct 10, 2020 7:34am Oct 10, 2020 7:34am
Quoting mlawson71
{quote} Exactly. Treating trading as gambling is the fastest way to lose money.
But most people treat it as gambling. Most people even don't realize they gambling with their money. After losing all the money they blame the market. If I don't know what I am doing I am doing gambling. Simple.
  • #40
  • Last Post: Oct 10, 2020 9:02am Oct 10, 2020 9:02am
Quoting MarcoDresner
{quote} But most people treat it as gambling. Most people even don't realize they gambling with their money. After losing all the money they blame the market. If I don't know what I am doing I am doing gambling. Simple.
And that is why so many people lose money.
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