Pls Review my Assignment
Jibson
Jibson
Still trying to get to meet myself...
james16 Chart Thread
- #128,364
- Oct 27, 2013 5:51am Oct 27, 2013 5:51am
{quote} Hey P, Yes there does exist the possibility of taking trades without a PA bar trigger but its an advanced concept and one that I would only recommend digging into once you have had ample practice with the basic material first - that is if you might still be interested. Importantly though, the dynamics for both touch trading or PA bar trading more or less stay the same. So you're going to have to still spot the sweet locations and make notes of the space available. The overall story will also come in big time. As an example just take a look...
G
I apologize for the late response as I got caught up with so many things. I always tend to agree with your responses because it just makes so much sense to me. I would definitely love to argue and differ with you but have not been able to so far
I am basically a person with an artistic temperament and trading based just on pure price action does appeal to me. However I have to wait for that till I get a lot of experience and familiarity with the charts. I agree with you on that point. I did go through all the newbie videos by Mike on PF and there was a great video on price action signals.
I was not on the forum last couple of days because I was thinking about psychological aspects of NOT trading too much and taking only the best trades. Experienced traders have told to take few trades with good setups quite often but they have not said how one can do that. They have not explained how that can be accomplished. It is critical for success in trading.
I have decided to increase my range of observation of instruments or charts to get the best trades. I want to expand my focus to stocks apart from currencies so that I can select only the best. Now there is no meaning to the term "best" or "A" trade. It is all so relative. So the task is to watch a lot of pairs and stocks and short list say 50 of them to watch. Now reduce them to 5 and take the best of the five trades. Now I have also decided to take only ONE trade per week and that means I will have 4 trades to take every month. You just analyze the charts but take ONLY ONE trade per week. If you dont limit like that it will lead to over trading and then to losses it is as simple as that. And then my mind chimes in again and says if I can go break even I can go for another trade...because it releases my risk capital and enables me to take another one.....and I really succumbed to that idea. So I may have 5 or 6 trades in a month. There is a proverb in english...."Curiosity killed the cat"....and now we can say "temptation killed the trader" on the same lines
My plan may still have holes in it but it gives me a good way to test this out. I also had a feeling that I might have been successful even with my earlier method of trend trading if I stuck to limited trades and higher time frame charts. It is trading in the additive sense on lower charts that can lead to losses. In the trend trading method earlier I was only taught about using support/resistance, trend lines and fibs but no indicators. It was pretty clean and was not noisy or confusing. It was simple but I traded too much on lower time frames and it was too much trading I think that got me only to break even.
Prasad
- #128,365
- Oct 27, 2013 6:05am Oct 27, 2013 6:05am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{quote} G I apologize for the late response as I got caught up with so many things. I always tend to agree with your responses because it just makes so much sense to me. I would definitely love to argue and differ with you but have not been able to so far
Totally agree that you must bring down the number of trades ( at first at least) to find that consistency by taking only the very good setups. What you should not do though, IMO, is to give a number to your frequency of trading. 1 per week and so 4 a month is more or less where you need to be. Again "more or less" is the keyword here.
I think a very crucial mistake that a lot of traders make is they set targets and objectives for the money they need to make or the number of trades they need to take or set a timer on the stop watch to count the seconds down to their 3 months of consecutive profits. You must understand that you control neither. What you CAN control is your attitude. So if you know what it means to be picky it actually doesn't matter if you take 2 trades a month or 6. Remember that's how the markets are built. Some months will be more fruitful than others.
In setting a "1 trade per week" target, you are unnecessarily nervous when you spot a second A+ trade in the week, and deeply disgruntled when you don't get even one (which is perfectly normal when you're in that picky mindset).
Most of the negative emotions flow through the gap that gets created between what you would like and what you get. The most ideal mindset in this business is one where you free your mind up from any "put in stone expectations". Just let the opportunities flow to you and let the natural flow of things influence you to the fullest. That's only possible when you correct your attitude and then just let the circumstances show you the direction you need to take.
g.
I believe . . .
- #128,366
- Oct 27, 2013 6:06am Oct 27, 2013 6:06am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Pls Review my Assignment Jibson {image}{image}
g.
I believe . . .
- #128,369
- Oct 27, 2013 10:06am Oct 27, 2013 10:06am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
meine augen sind die sterne
- #128,370
- Oct 27, 2013 10:17am Oct 27, 2013 10:17am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{image} Hey guys, what do you think about this pinbar?
This looks quite tricky with the size being so small and the close itself stuck within the larger PPZ at play here. One of those instances when you're not quite sure if a PPZ is working as confluence for the trade or as a major close by trouble area.
Just too much uncertainty going about that one.
g.
I believe . . .
- #128,372
- Oct 27, 2013 12:50pm Oct 27, 2013 12:50pm
EURAUD gave away some pips thursday and friday. It closed a weekly BUOEB Friday but it closed right at a ppz. The BUOEB also just barely engulfed the prior candle. I don't think I'll trade this one but it will be an interesting watch and learn :nerd: But who knows, perhaps some strong PA here may change things.
{image}
I would sell this...
- #128,373
- Oct 27, 2013 1:02pm Oct 27, 2013 1:02pm
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,571 Posts
It is the weekend, and its time for the weekend fun game.Here's the first setup. A BUOB off a longer term trend line and a RN. How would you trade this if at all? {image} {image} g.
Im not very sophisticated, but I have lots of time to wait for a set up that suits my needs....this is how I would play this since I am more a reversal trader than a breakout trader...
- #128,377
- Oct 27, 2013 9:20pm Oct 27, 2013 9:20pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Hey Mike, Ghous how can get hurt a trader focusing on the correlation forex?
Following correlation isn't lethal and it doesn't hurt. What does hurt is simply the way many choose to use it. Correlation is something that does truly exist as the markets in general flow in tandem. So you could have inter-market correlation (the fx markets being correlated in some way to say the commodities market) or intra-market correlation (the USD/CHF being correlated with the the EUR/USD). Even beyond this, you'll generally notice how when many of the major currency pairs are pretty much flat, the market as a whole becomes flat and when it does decide to move it kind of takes most of the pairs with it. This can most certainly be sensed in the frequency of situations where you have dry periods (with very few to no trades) followed by a burst of trade setups everywhere. Point being that there isn't really an argument against the sure existence of correlation.
Correlation is helpful when it can generally give you a bias towards a currency and work as confluence for your trades. So if I see the dollar rising across the board, a good looking short on the EUR/USD is "pretty much with the current then". Problem arises if you start to eye a poor short setup on the EUR/USD only because the dollar seems to be rising across the board. Secondly, if two pairs are strongly correlated then taking a trade on both and using one to support the other really only mounts your risk in case you have a direct correlation and just hedges your profits (if the pairs are inversely correlated). This is where you start to play dangerously with correlation. Correlation itself, should you choose to follow it, is nothing more than another source of confluence for a trade - never the trigger within the j16 construct of course.
I for one, never follow correlation for two reasons. 1) It helps to keep things simple and independent and 2) Correlation is more tricky than appears at first because the relationships can vary over time. Both in nature as well as the intensity. So unless you're also deeply involved in fundamental analysis correlation can bite you as there is very little warning/hints that you can pick straight from the chart, of a possible change coming in the correlation factor of two instruments/markets.
So for me, when I am looking to long USD/CAD, it has to be because the factors on that chart all point to the north, as opposed to justifying an average trade setup because I know the dollar is gaining strength across the board. Correlation only comes into the equation when I am taking more than one setups at the same time (rare!) and need to make sure if any serious correlation between the the setups could likely affect my overall exposure.
Hope this helps.
g.
I believe . . .
- #128,379
- Oct 28, 2013 1:02am Oct 28, 2013 1:02am
It is the weekend, and its time for the weekend fun game.
Regarding the first setup:
At a first glance, I'd play it: nice looking, confluence of a RN + TL, at the bottom of a sharp drop.
But after looking at it more cautiously, I'd be wary of the first red PPZ. That's a more general problem, between OB and me: they usually don't close too far from PPZ...
I would enter 3 positions of 0.5% equity (as usual). Entry 10-15 pips above the bar. Initial SL at the bottom of the bar BUT mental stop at the bluebox. Again, my way of playing OB so far: price should not retrace below the 50% / BRN / internal PPZ area.
TP1 at 1st green box, w/ SL moved to BE.
TP2 at 2nd green box (flip zone + ~50% ret)
TP3 open (target 5.9 or 6.0). I usually trail my 3rd SL behind PPZ/RN.
Slow & steady
- #128,380
- Oct 28, 2013 1:10am Oct 28, 2013 1:10am
And here's the second setup - a BEOB. There is macd divergence here too that's not shown. Good luck.
And I don't like the traffic on the left. There is a D1 PPZ just 50 pips ahead (red area).
Divergence and the overall look of the BEOB play it its favor but I don't think I'd play it.
Slow & steady