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No Brainer Trades

  • #14,401
  • May 27, 2013 9:14pm May 27, 2013 9:14pm
Quoting tubguy
{quote} With your eyes and knowledge KK007. Price closed and did not close above that level again. You must think differently than others to really see.Stop asking questions and start looking deeper. You will never get the answer to what you seek until YOU find it. Nobody can or will give away the goose that lays the golden eggs. I'm nobody, just someone that is starting to put the puzzle all together and making it work. Good luck.

Oh, I didn't ask any question here....
Not to be offensive...
Many people have a urge to give spectacular but vague advices before being consistently successful himself....
Some of them even see other own them something, after they have given such good advices generously.
Nevertheless, I would see this as "the blind lead the blind".
I hope it is not for you. Good luck.
  • #14,402
  • May 27, 2013 9:43pm May 27, 2013 9:43pm
Quoting kk007
{quote} Oh, I didn't ask any question here....Not to be offensive...Many people have a urge to give spectacular but vague advices before being consistently successful himself....Some of them even see other own them something, after they have given such good advices generously.Nevertheless, I would see this as "the blind lead the blind".I hope it is not for you. Good luck.
No you didn't ask a question here, just seen so many all over FF. Just trying to give you a bit of advice. You can take it or leave it.
A few years ago I would have left it and wish now that I had heard more.

Good luck.
  • #14,403
  • May 27, 2013 10:19pm May 27, 2013 10:19pm
What do you guys think of this? is it long or short?
http://i262.photobucket.com/albums/i.../eurusdmh1.png
  • #14,404
  • May 30, 2013 2:15am May 30, 2013 2:15am
Hi guys,

Nice level on this one. Hope the news doesn't do anything too drastic to it.
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  • #14,405
  • Oct 18, 2013 5:26am Oct 18, 2013 5:26am
An absolute beauty of a short in true BRV fashion. Too beautiful not to share and perhaps keep this thread a bit alive. Tight and crisply defined range of resistance with TL confluence marked by the wedge's upper TL (wedge pointed to price exhaustion, so price action acted as a confluence factor as well)

http://i41.tinypic.com/vg52dz.png
  • #14,406
  • Edited 1:14pm Oct 25, 2013 1:04pm | Edited 1:14pm
So I wake up one morning and pick up my phone to discover that Twee, a serious veteran of FF and who I consider a good old friend that I've basically never met, emailed me informing me that my username was being clipped to "BillRayVal" due to a technical convention on the site. And for those of you that don't know "Billy Ray Valentine" is Eddie Murphy's character in "Trading Places" although it's generally pretty funny when I get messages that start off "Dear Mr. Valentine,"..... But it was good to hear from Twee and got me thinking about this thread that has been basically dormant for a long time and spawned a blog that has been going for over 5 years now.

I just went ahead and updated the first post on this thread with a little explanation about the evolution of everything that happened with "No Brainer Trades" and why it did so. So I won't waste my breath here too much but rather just refer you to that first post.

Take it as you will, I still enjoy writing, and shedding light on anything I can offer in terms of strategy and utilizing common sense, regardless of that strategy. Some of it might stink, some of it might seem to hit a home run. Either way, rightly so. That's how it goes. And while it's wasted on many for some, it might help. After all, the only thing that has kept me going this long is rational judgement, an eagerness to keep on learning, and communicating with others in the industry. I am terrible at PR and frankly just historically trusting when it comes to business acumen, which is why I am back working for myself and cut the cord with some industry death traps. It is also one of the reasons I feel it's okay to drop in here and speak my mind again.

Those of you that know me know that I am a neurotic mess when it comes to providing value and I'll keep pushing along, just because its fun. So for the old timers, I say a warm "hello" and to the newbies, a warm "welcome": please go to the first post to see all of the guts of NBT, and enjoy. There is a substantial framework of materials available here and on the blog so just go for it and drop on in every once and a while with any other ideas you have. Thanks!
  • #14,407
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:31pm Oct 25, 2013 4:31pm
BillyRayValentine, one of the few quality people I thought would ever return to this forum. I used to be a fan of your trading methodology but moved on to supply and demand based strategies - nonetheless, your journal was a light in the right direction. Are you trading for a profession these days or did life take you a different direction?
  • #14,408
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:06pm Oct 25, 2013 7:06pm
Quoting Kanzler
BillyRayValentine, one of the few quality people I thought would ever return to this forum. I used to be a fan of your trading methodology but moved on to supply and demand based strategies - nonetheless, your journal was a light in the right direction. Are you trading for a profession these days or did life take you a different direction?
Still trading is the short answer - same old same old but the setup, like everything else, has evolved as well. But I wouldn't want it any other way. Supply and demand is basically what's discussed anyway - as I say in the first post I setup the blog to basically organize all the stuff that was talked about here, and obviously that changed as well with time. Tons of stuff that never really got discussed on this thread, but would like to just for old time sake.

One thing I'm certain: my avatar will never change. They will have to pry that out of my cold, dead ha........
  • #14,409
  • Oct 25, 2013 7:40pm Oct 25, 2013 7:40pm
Quoting BillyRayVal
{quote} Still trading is the short answer - same old same old but the setup, like everything else, has evolved as well. But I wouldn't want it any other way. Supply and demand is basically what's discussed anyway - as I say in the first post I setup the blog to basically organize all the stuff that was talked about here, and obviously that changed as well with time. Tons of stuff that never really got discussed on this thread, but would like to just for old time sake. One thing I'm certain: my avatar will never change. They will have to pry that...
It better not, it's a classic. Pity that your name got clipped though. And I see - I guess that makes sense. Good to have you back in any case, my eyes almost popped out when I saw you had posted LOL.
  • #14,410
  • Edited 7:08pm Oct 26, 2013 6:42pm | Edited 7:08pm
O shieetttt BRV!

The bawsss is back!!!

Good to see you around again. I'll just echo what kanzler said. Hope life's treated you well over the years.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #14,411
  • Nov 12, 2013 9:42am Nov 12, 2013 9:42am
What about EUR/GBP? Short?

http://prntscr.com/23nv0r


Aswell as USD/CAD?

http://prntscr.com/23f49p
Trololololo
  • #14,412
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:52pm Nov 19, 2013 9:52pm
Great to have BRV back.

I'll keep adding my two pence worth when I can. I tend to do a round up of what I can see on my charts on a Monday morning. But as I've just realized BRV has popped in I will post a few trades that I'm looking at as an update for this week.

First is EUR/USD 13547 which has just popped and if it manages to keep its ass above it this will be a nice support line for future trades. It'll
also be interesting to see if any bearish price patterns form around here. In which case the next major support line is 13295.
  • #14,413
  • Dec 2, 2013 12:25am Dec 2, 2013 12:25am
Quoting BillyRayVal
{quote} Still trading is the short answer - same old same old but the setup, like everything else, has evolved as well. But I wouldn't want it any other way. Supply and demand is basically what's discussed anyway - as I say in the first post I setup the blog to basically organize all the stuff that was talked about here, and obviously that changed as well with time. Tons of stuff that never really got discussed on this thread, but would like to just for old time sake. One thing I'm certain: my avatar will never change. They will have to pry that...

Just wanna say that I have lots of respect for you. The information you posted in this forum has completely changed my trading style. Thank you! I have taken your idea and incorporated into my own simple system. It has been running good for years without much change. Its good to see that you are still around.
  • #14,414
  • Dec 9, 2013 7:11pm Dec 9, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting leorc
{quote} Just wanna say that I have lots of respect for you. The information you posted in this forum has completely changed my trading style. Thank you! I have taken your idea and incorporated into my own simple system. It has been running good for years without much change. Its good to see that you are still around.
Thanks leorc! Yeah I'm basically trying to empty my brain fully these days online here before I croak . Which reminds me I should get that front post updated with more goods to keep the train rolling along here - there is a ton of stuff that made it to the blog I started but never this thread mainly due to a full on assault with PM's. Thanks again.
  • #14,415
  • Dec 17, 2013 6:44am Dec 17, 2013 6:44am
Hey,

Just a trading idea.
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Trololololo
  • #14,416
  • Edited 10:56am Jan 8, 2014 8:56am | Edited 10:56am
Hi Billy,

Thanks for very helpful and useful information. As you are experienced and institutional trader, please clear my some confusions and questions:
1) Does big players on banks and institutes use stop losses? or they use averaging or hedging techniques to reduce the losses.
2) Do they use lower time frame like 1m, 5m or they also use higher time frame like 1h/4h or daily?
3) Is the scalping is only way to make living for a retail and small trader?
4) Is it possible to trade 1h or 4h with 4 to 6 pairs (using same method you mentioned in thread) to make living for a small trader?

Some how I feel or may be due to wrong info or correct info that for full time trader, he must sit every day for London and NY session and trade on lower time frame like 15m/5m or 1m on one specific pair to earn daily ? is it true?

Edit: I think all or may be most of questions I asked are already in the thread: I just need to read the thread, like I just found for my scalping question and risk/reward in this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...08#post2116608

I hope will find more while reading it.

Thanks.
  • #14,417
  • Jan 17, 2014 10:17pm Jan 17, 2014 10:17pm
Quoting BillyRayVal
Ok its time for some math....Its a little slow out there so I thought I would do a little reward check. First off, I looked at the thread's current track record, using a +150 pip take profit and 5 contracts as a benchmark. I dont want to take too much time explaining what I'm doing here so its a little better if I just show you. Lets forget for a second about changing market conditions, forget about sentiment hooplah, forget about market obstacles, etc. - lets just quantify how to make the most out of what we do here without any ramblings. Out of...

This post got me thinking today. I've been reading a lot about other traders and top fund managers lately and a common theme that I recognized is that they nearly all say that they bet big and build on positions when they are running well or a trade is going in their direction. I'm not suggesting increasing your risk exposure but simply building your position once it's confirmed it's going in your direction.

So obviously I'd want to analyse this in more detail on a larger data set but IF you found, as above, that 2/3 of the time that price hit your 1:1 target that it went on to hit your 3:1 target, then at your 1:1 target you should be moving your stop to B/E as above and adding another position on with the same risk% as the initial trade. So your maintaining your initial risk exposure but significantly increasing your potential profitability by entering a position with 1:2 RR and 66% win-rate!

Add this math to the BRV example above -

Add another position @ the +50pip target of initial trade and move original position to B/E

Total 28 trades (initial positions)

14wins*150 pips = 2,100
7 losses *40 pips = -280 (because 7/14 were moved to B/E at +50 pips)
7 breakeven trades = 0
=1,820 pips won

Now add positions @ +50 pips
7 losses *50 pips = -350 (the 7 position added @ initial +50 target that lost)
14 Wins*100 pips = 1,400 (the 14 position added @ initial +50 target that went on to hit the initial +150 target)
Total won = 2,590 pips VS 1,820 pips without adding a position @ +50 pips

Obviously you'd need to dig through your own metrics and make sure you have enough data that it's statistically significant to optimize it but it really emphasizes that if your trades hit an initial target and then have a high probability of continuing then you should try and build the position without increasing the risk.

Just some thoughts :-)
  • #14,418
  • Jan 22, 2014 7:09pm Jan 22, 2014 7:09pm
Looking for a long on this pair. Nice cluster support around the 81600 area.

Going to tuck my stop just below that 61 fib level.
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  • #14,419
  • Jan 22, 2014 8:03pm Jan 22, 2014 8:03pm
Quoting Siam
Looking for a long on this pair. Nice cluster support around the 81600 area. Going to tuck my stop just below that 61 fib level. {image}
Yep, have the same area marked on my chart - if you go to the daily, the inner trendline of that downward wedge has just broken and may act as resistance on the bounce back though, had been tested several times so is pretty relevant.
  • #14,420
  • Jan 23, 2014 1:43am Jan 23, 2014 1:43am
Quoting ShipThePips
{quote} Yep, have the same area marked on my chart - if you go to the daily, the inner trendline of that downward wedge has just broken and may act as resistance on the bounce back though, had been tested several times so is pretty relevant.
Yea got that.

News coming out in 15 mins or so too.

Gonna look at a couple of pending orders for now.
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