Attachments: AUD/USD

AUD/USD

#68,541
Oct 25, 2013 3:40pm Oct 25, 2013 3:40pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting Pip Anon

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{quote} I been doing it that way for a while. It's how I found Aussie's top and what led to successful calls since. It's not generally something one would think of doing, I guess. But it makes a world of difference

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Absolutely. It has helped me identify key pivots for the last 5 years. It doesn't mean the level will hold, but it's nice to know you're not floating in the middle of nowhere when you enter.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,542
Oct 25, 2013 3:41pm Oct 25, 2013 3:41pm

Pip Anon
Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trading defies logic | 4,643 Posts

Quoting tony95

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{quote} You can pick out s/r on larger time frames and then use smaller time frames to fine tune the level. For example, you might see a level at 9510-20 and then look at a smaller time frame and see that it is more accurately defined at 9514.

Ignored

Oh, I agree. That can be done for entries and exits, etc. I have just found many traders will look at a 4H chart with a 5, 10 or 20 day length, or a 30 day daily chart. Not much can be done with that. Take that daily chart and look at 2,3 or 5 years. And then break it down.

Sometimes a recent chart, say 4H with a 30-day timeframe may show support at a given level while the larger picture shows resistance or weak support. It's just developing an eye for it.

After studying charts over the last 16 months, about 5-8 hrs a day, I could take a chart and map out key points and develop high probable outcomes in a few minutes just based on price action. Then again, it doesn't take into account event risk.

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir

#68,543
Oct 25, 2013 3:43pm Oct 25, 2013 3:43pm

Pip Anon
Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trading defies logic | 4,643 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} Absolutely. It has helped me identify key pivots for the last 5 years. It doesn't mean the level will hold, but it's nice to know you're not floating in the middle of nowhere when you enter.

Ignored

True. It's odd, I could map out my key points (which could vary from yours) and then put on daily pivots. They will almost always converge lol. Do you include wicks? I find that is a hit or miss with some traders.

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir

#68,544
Oct 25, 2013 3:46pm Oct 25, 2013 3:46pm

fxlover11
| Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,351 Posts

My wave count....

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Never test the depth of water with both feet.

#68,545
Oct 25, 2013 3:48pm Oct 25, 2013 3:48pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting Pip Anon

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{quote} True. It's odd, I could map out my key points (which could vary from yours) and then put on daily pivots. They will almost always converge lol. Do you include wicks? I find that is a hit or miss with some traders.

Ignored

Most of the time you get wick overlap penetration. In those instances I find the median or if there are other spots along the same level that did not overlap, I set it at those wicks. Generally when I see wick overlap, the candle bodies on each side of the pivot meet, so it's quite easy to find the correct level. I never look for absolute levels anyway. I prefer using a small range instead. As such if I'm shorting against resistance or longing against support, the SL (if I use a hard one) is a bit wider than the range... as long as the RR remains high.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,546
Oct 25, 2013 3:52pm Oct 25, 2013 3:52pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting fxlover11

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My wave count.... {image}

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What do you figure for C of B down?
9510 or 9445?

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,547
Oct 25, 2013 3:55pm Oct 25, 2013 3:55pm

Pip Anon
Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trading defies logic | 4,643 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

{quote} Most of the time you get wick overlap penetration. In those instances I find the median or if there are other spots along the same level that did not overlap, I set it at those wicks. Generally when I see wick overlap, the candle bodies on each side of the pivot meet, so it's quite easy to find the correct level. I never look for absolute levels anyway. I prefer using a small range instead. As such if I'm shorting against resistance or longing against support, the SL (if I use a hard one) is a bit wider than the range... as long as the RR...

Ignored

Oh ok, I generally use them if they are key areas of interest: high/lows, strong sell or buy or on volatile pairs because they still represent the pip range.

When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir

#68,548
Oct 25, 2013 4:08pm Oct 25, 2013 4:08pm

fxlover11
| Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,351 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

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{quote} What do you figure for C of B down? 9510 or 9445?

Ignored

I am expecting at least 50% retrace of last wave A up in wave B and figure it accordingly @.9510-.9520 area.

Never test the depth of water with both feet.

#68,549
Oct 25, 2013 4:11pm Oct 25, 2013 4:11pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting Pip Anon

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{quote} Oh ok, I generally use them if they are key areas of interest: high/lows, strong sell or buy or on volatile pairs because they still represent the pip range.

Ignored

Here's an example of how I identify potential support / resistance with historical levels. If any of these lines match with fibo levels or Daily pivots, I keep them, otherwise they are turfed.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,550
Oct 25, 2013 4:18pm Oct 25, 2013 4:18pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting fxlover11

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{quote} I am expecting at least 50% retrace of last wave A up in wave B and figure it accordingly @.9510-.9520 area.

Ignored

Thanks for the input. I feel 9445 also has potential as I do not see any EW rules that would invalidate the count should it go that low. This could also turn out to be a flat ABC. That's the thing with corrective waves. One never knows what combination you end up with and therefore one never knows where they end.

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,551
Oct 25, 2013 5:01pm Oct 25, 2013 5:01pm

Paulenok
| Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Bear | 1,009 Posts

With red daily candle close at .9578 I am inclined to believe we are going to kiss .95285 in no time

#68,552
Oct 25, 2013 11:45pm Oct 25, 2013 11:45pm

pinoismo
| Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Trader | 40 Posts

that is a great level to go long at if given a bullish confirmation. I believe this pair still has some room for the upside

#68,553
Oct 26, 2013 1:50pm Oct 26, 2013 1:50pm

fxlover11
| Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,351 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

{quote} Thanks for the input. I feel 9445 also has potential as I do not see any EW rules that would invalidate the count should it go that low. This could also turn out to be a flat ABC. That's the thing with corrective waves. One never knows what combination you end up with and therefore one never knows where they end. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJh59vZ8ccc

Ignored

Agree. So let Market to decide where it want to go...

Never test the depth of water with both feet.

#68,554
Oct 26, 2013 3:01pm Oct 26, 2013 3:01pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting pinoismo

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that is a great level to go long at if given a bullish confirmation. I believe this pair still has some room for the upside

Ignored

Yes I also believe it has some more room to the upside and I think that room extends to the 9910 level. However, I also do not think that 9527 is enough of a correction and that is why I am thinking 9445.

Of course I am not a psychic so anything can happen. If the bank credit situation in China is seen by the markets as a negative, or even if the USD bears decide to cover some of their shorts, the Aussie could go even lower than 9445 and might even give up on it's higher target and keep going down.

Nobody knows. That's why it is always best to know the key levels and try and enter according to your personal beliefs at the level.

So I think we can all agree that for now we have the current level at 9575, then 9527 and then 9445. There are more levels below also, but a breach and hold below 9280 invalidates the "some room for the upside" theory.

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,555
Oct 26, 2013 3:03pm Oct 26, 2013 3:03pm

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting fxlover11

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{quote} Agree. So let Market to decide where it want to go...

Ignored

Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it

#68,556
Oct 27, 2013 1:05am Oct 27, 2013 1:05am

leticus
| Joined Apr 2012 | Status: Trader | 221 Posts

Quoting PipTrapper

Disliked

{quote} Yes I also believe it has some more room to the upside and I think that room extends to the 9910 level. However, I also do not think that 9527 is enough of a correction and that is why I am thinking 9445. Of course I am not a psychic so anything can happen. If the bank credit situation in China is seen by the markets as a negative, or even if the USD bears decide to cover some of their shorts, the Aussie could go even lower than 9445 and might even give up on it's higher target and keep going down. Nobody knows. That's why it is always best...

Ignored

Tuesday is FED, so becareful of "Persisted Trend before Big News"

The question now is what is the persisted trend from monday till tuesday Big news?

#68,557
Oct 27, 2013 1:11am Oct 27, 2013 1:11am

tohalan
| Joined Jun 2013 | Status: Trader | 23 Posts

Tursday is FED or Thursday is FED ? Hehe

#68,558
Oct 27, 2013 1:14am Oct 27, 2013 1:14am

fxlover11
| Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,351 Posts

Expecting a small pullback in AUD/NZD . I think buyers will also be happy if that happen as they will be able to load more longs.

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Never test the depth of water with both feet.

#68,559
Oct 27, 2013 5:01am Oct 27, 2013 5:01am

PipTrapper
Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts

Quoting leticus

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{quote} tuesday is fed, so becareful of \"persisted trend before big news\" the question now is what is the persisted trend from monday till tuesday big news?

Ignored

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