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Attachments: The counter Trend Line - trade these every chance you get!
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The counter Trend Line - trade these every chance you get!

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Jan 31, 2015 10:48am Oct 25, 2013 2:51am | Edited Jan 31, 2015 10:48am
I thought it would help some people if I posted a 50 pip rocket buy trade I had on Cable this morning. This set up offers, for me anyway, the best trading opportunity there is, with an incredible success rate when you recognize it. The chart I'm posting is the 5 min chart, and like me, you'll get best results if you use other time frames to give you the best possible picture so as to time your entry and where to exit. Always try and get a trend line in if possible, but if you can't you can still get a trade in if the price is coming off support or resistance in the form of moving averages/trendlines/pivot points.fibs etc. You see in this shot that the price has broken back above the trend line, and once it does so, it has the 200ema ( yellow ) to support it. This Buy zone will give you the best odds for a winning trade that you are likely to come across, and 50 forex pips before most people in the UK are even up is very nice thank you very much.
  • #2
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:58am Oct 25, 2013 2:58am
Quoting cat
I thought it would help some people if I posted a 50 pip rocket buy trade I had on Cable this morning. This set up offers, for me anyway, the best trading opportunity there is, with an incredible success rate when you recognize it. The chart I'm posting is the 5 min chart, and like me, you'll get best results if you use other time frames to give you the best possible picture so as to time your entry and where to exit. Always try and get a trend line in if possible, but if you can't you can still get a trade in if the price is coming off support...
nice trade Cat
  • #3
  • Oct 25, 2013 3:02am Oct 25, 2013 3:02am
Quoting MaxDoom
{quote} nice trade Cat
Cheers Max! - hope all's good
  • #4
  • Oct 25, 2013 3:21am Oct 25, 2013 3:21am
Quoting cat
I thought it would help some people if I posted a 50 pip rocket buy trade I had on Cable this morning. This set up offers, for me anyway, the best trading opportunity there is, with an incredible success rate when you recognize it. The chart I'm posting is the 5 min chart, and like me, you'll get best results if you use other time frames to give you the best possible picture so as to time your entry and where to exit. Always try and get a trend line in if possible, but if you can't you can still get a trade in if the price is coming off support...

i was awake and with you,looking at your entry point we entered at the same point,just to add ,my entry was initially targeting a scalp to the level indicating but the momentum took me all the way to 41 level.
Attached Image
  • #5
  • Oct 25, 2013 3:48am Oct 25, 2013 3:48am
Quoting diceman555
{quote} i was awake and with you,looking at your entry point we entered at the same point,just to add ,my entry was initially targeting a scalp to the level indicating but the momentum took me all the way to 41 level. {image}
I actually took my entry on a 1 min time frame at 04.35 London time and was not surprised to see it take off the way it did, because this type of set up more often than not produces a very powerful move if everything is in place as it was here. You'll notice that the move back down from the high was really just a drift in comparison with no clear entry opportunity apart from a nice looking shooting star at 7am on the 15 min chart combined with A falling MACD, which for me was enough to risk 20 pips on a sell down to the 76.4% fib replacement, so I'm very happy with this morning's work.
  • #6
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:02am Oct 25, 2013 4:02am
Quoting cat
{quote} I actually took my entry on a 1 min time frame at 04.35 London time and was not surprised to see it take off the way it did, because this type of set up more often than not produces a very powerful move if everything is in place as it was here. You'll notice that the move back down from the high was really just a drift in comparison with no clear entry opportunity apart from a nice looking shooting star at 7am on the 15 min chart combined with A falling MACD, which for me was enough to risk 20 pips on a sell down to the 76.4% fib replacement,...
yes i agree ,only through different perspective.as they say ,many ways to skin a cat
  • #7
  • Oct 25, 2013 4:50am Oct 25, 2013 4:50am
Just to prove a point and also to clarify the position of the 200exponential moving average which is important to understand, here is a chart showing a fantastic Buy opportunity for cable on the 22nd Oct. Again, this is a counter-trend line being used. You'll see that here, as opposed to the last chart, the 200 ema has got above the price. But this doesn't matter, what I am looking for is when the price crosses the trend line. Once it does, there will often be another sharp move back below it, which you can see. You can either wait for this using a stop loss wide enough to be well clear, or, as I did in this instance, trade right at it's close. A full negative candle by the way, the one preceding my entry, is a great place to enter, you'll see this a lot. The white moving average you see is the 100Time Series which I also use, which here, as it tucks underneath the price right as the squeeze beneath the trend line, is giving a powerful signal to buy.

That's all I'll put about this, but I think you can see what I'm getting at. These are very definitely very powerful set ups to trade, in the direction of the major trend, they don't let you down very often. Good trading
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  • #8
  • Oct 30, 2013 5:03am Oct 30, 2013 5:03am
Quoting cat
Just to prove a point and also to clarify the position of the 200exponential moving average which is important to understand, here is a chart showing a fantastic Buy opportunity for cable on the 22nd Oct. Again, this is a counter-trend line being used. You'll see that here, as opposed to the last chart, the 200 ema has got above the price. But this doesn't matter, what I am looking for is when the price crosses the trend line. Once it does, there will often be another sharp move back below it, which you can see. You can either wait for this using...
hello cat,

do you want to share your indicator+template (mt4)?

thankyou
  • #9
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:44am Nov 27, 2013 4:44am
Thought I'd quickly add to this thread as I have a great counter trend set up which I traded yesterday on gbp/jpy. The trend is strongly up in this pair, which meant that I was waiting for the price to drop down towards the next major moving average on the hourly chart which was the 100sma. As always, I was expecting a move up to the 50TSMA ( yellow ) and then a drop back which would give me a summit along which to run a trend line. The close of the beautiful positive hammer candle is the first entry point I've marked with a yellow candle, or you could wait for the trendline to cross beneath the price to be a bit safer. Either way, this was as high probability a trade as you are likely to find.
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  • #10
  • Feb 3, 2014 12:59am Feb 3, 2014 12:59am
Thought I'd add this as it's a nice example. GBP/JPY 50 point trade I made this morning, closing just above the 76.4% fib retrace. This for me is the easiest and safest trade there is, requiring only a small stop loss. Notice how on this 5m chart, the price has clearly found resistance on the 200ema, and once the first candle closes below the trendline, then that is the moment to open the trade.
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  • #11
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:12am Feb 3, 2014 1:12am
Quoting cat
Thought I'd add this as it's a nice example. GBP/JPY 50 point trade I made this morning, closing just above the 76.4% fib retrace. This for me is the easiest and safest trade there is, requiring only a small stop loss. Notice how on this 5m chart, the price has clearly found resistance on the 200ema, and once the first candle closes below the trendline, then that is the moment to open the trade. {image}

what about the half dozen or so false tl breaks that occurred before the one successful one that you drew?
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  • #12
  • Feb 3, 2014 1:24am Feb 3, 2014 1:24am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
{quote} what about the half dozen or so false tl breaks that occurred before the one successful one that you drew?
That's an easy one. For starters, I was sleeping so I wouldn't have worried about then anyway, but had I not been, then the rising blue MA which is the 100Time Series, would have kept me weel away from selling. The low extension just before 2am gave the necessary arm for the trend line to be drawn, and then it was just a question of waiting for the 100TS to close in on the purple 200ema, and the trend line to do the same. The first candle close beneath the trendline, as I said, was the moment to strike. Not all are as clean as this, but this one was a beauty.
  • #13
  • Feb 4, 2014 8:19am Feb 4, 2014 8:19am
Trying a USDJPY 5 min short ATM and i noticed it was one of these counter trend line plays which has given me more confidence in the trade. Lets see how this works out
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  • #14
  • Feb 4, 2014 10:59pm Feb 4, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting IBBinary
Trying a USDJPY 5 min short ATM and i noticed it was one of these counter trend line plays which has given me more confidence in the trade. Lets see how this works out {image}
So how did it go?
  • #15
  • Jun 6, 2014 3:22am Jun 6, 2014 3:22am
Thought I'd spend a few mins on jobs friday to show a good example from April 29th of two tech threads I started in the past, this one and one which focuses on fake moves prior to a significant price move. This shows what I call a counter-trend line which will slope away from the expected price move. This is on Geppy, my favourite pair to trade because of its violent moves which often give a lot of pips in a very short time, this particular move giving 55 pips before it put in an inverted hammer on which to take profits. This is a 5 min chart, and you can see that as the price gets closer to the trend line, there is the all so often fake away from the expected move. This is a dead give away that it is about to move quickly back up and should be entered immediately upon closure of the candle which leaves a long wick down to the support area, in this case the 200ema. A 10 pip SL was more than enough here. If entering before this spike down, I would always place my SL far enough below the obvious support area to be as safe as possible from any fake move. The only problem is that you can get caught by these adverse moves away from the subsequent move, so it's best to either wait for them, or to make sure that your stop loss is far enough away. For me, these set ups really do give the best opportunity to get into a trade, and when they come along you should trade then every time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 29th April Geppy.png Size: 153 KB
  • #16
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:05am Jun 6, 2014 5:05am
Quoting M.A.C.Doug
{quote} what about the half dozen or so false tl breaks that occurred before the one successful one that you drew?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
  • #17
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:30am Jun 6, 2014 5:30am
Quoting TranceTrader
{quote} http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias
That's where moving averages and the Bollinger band come into play. If you don't know the Bollinger squeeze, which indicates the possibility of an imminent break out, then here it is for your eyes to see. Then I have my moving averages. Whilst the yellow ( ma50 )and the rising pink ( 200 ) still have fair distance between them, there is no trade. Look what happens when they come together, there is the tell tale fake which initiates the move. Ans as for the Wikipedia link, I don't know what you are trying to say. This was a simple methodology that works time and time again for me which I am sharing here on ff, and one which I have formed through many years of trading forex. Take it or leave it.
  • #18
  • Jun 6, 2014 5:40am Jun 6, 2014 5:40am
No thanks.

I posted the link in response to the observation made by MACD. Confirmation bias is essentially what most threads on this forum demonstrate. In short, people tend to post screenshots of the market activity that confirms their individual views or system... ignoring the activity that doesn't confirm it but it's understandable as we all want to be right, respected and reliable.

Quoting cat
{quote} That's where moving averages and the Bollinger band come into play. If you don't know the Bollinger squeeze, which indicates the possibility of an imminent break out, then here it is for your eyes to see. Then I have my moving averages. Whilst the yellow ( ma50 )and the rising pink ( 200 ) still have fair distance between them, there is no trade. Look what happens when they come together, there is the tell tale fake which initiates the move. Ans as for the Wikipedia link, I don't know what you are trying to say. This was a simple methodology...
  • #19
  • Jun 6, 2014 8:20am Jun 6, 2014 8:20am
How many candles should be used on a five minute chart to draw the trendline.. 100, 150, etc?
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  • #20
  • Jun 6, 2014 8:44am Jun 6, 2014 8:44am
it's always easy to find entries with a trend following system. What do you do when everything is lined up and it doesn't go your way though. No system is 100..
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