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AUD/USD

  • #68,381
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:27am Oct 23, 2013 3:27am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ...but we have to get below 95 first. Till then, hold on. The good news for the bears will be a close at or below current levels which will confirm an outside day reversal. If tomorrow is also a down day, then the bears are pretty much back in the game while the retail crowd starts trying to pick the bottom... as always. AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.20 as 46% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.43; 41% of open positions were long. Long positions are 3.1% higher than yesterday...

Any opinion on AUD/NZD? moving along nicely at last
  • #68,382
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:34am Oct 23, 2013 3:34am
Hi RodMca,
I'm neutral on this one. Today's rise is as much part of the AUD/USD movement as anything else. That said: the Kiwi is certinly not falling against the Ozzie. (I trade daily charts ).
A confident hunter knows the way of his prey.
  • #68,383
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:36am Oct 23, 2013 3:36am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Any opinion on AUD/NZD? moving along nicely at last
Aud/Nzd will find it hard to move at all with Ozzie & Kiwi moving in the same direction. However a slow grind to 1.16 seems inevitable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Money Makes Money
  • #68,384
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:41am Oct 23, 2013 3:41am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Aud/Nzd will find it hard to move at all with Ozzie & Kiwi moving in the same direction. However a slow grind to 1.16 seems inevitable. {image}
Interesting!

I'll be monitoring this pair.
A confident hunter knows the way of his prey.
  • #68,385
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:44am Oct 23, 2013 3:44am
Quoting anwiki
I'm still bullish but cannot figure out why the 120 odd pip correction without any significant news. Other than RBA stepping in, any ideas??
The pair is in overbought territory and is showing very strong bearish divergence, but for now it is still mid-term bullish. This is due to a combination of the technical factors I just mentioned, profit taking, a slight comeback in the USD and general malaise in the risk department (for now). As I posted earlier, if price manages to make a move below 9500 and manages to stay there, it could turn bearish quite fast and will likely be targeting wave 5 completion (8900 and lower).

There is no case to be made for Aussie to be bullish in and of itself, but with the US QE4EVA tapering probably being pushed forward to Q1 2014, USD weakness will naturally push this pair higher as capital seeks higher yield. However, most of that capital should flow to emerging market currencies rather than commodity currencies, especially since China is not doing that well and commodities are in lower than expected demand.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,386
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:46am Oct 23, 2013 3:46am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Any opinion on AUD/NZD? moving along nicely at last
To da moon Alice. All my buy positions are locked at BE because as I mentioned to you in previous communication, I don't trust this pair. However, so far so good and I'm still targeting 1.19/1.20 area.
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,387
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:49am Oct 23, 2013 3:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The pair is in overbought territory and is showing very strong bearish divergence, but for now it is still mid-term bullish. This is due to a combination of the technical factors I just mentioned, profit taking, a slight comeback in the USD and general malaise in the risk department (for now). As I posted earlier, if price manages to make a move below 9500 and manages to stay there, it could turn bearish quite fast and will likely be targeting wave 5 completion (8900 and lower). There is no case to be made for Aussie to be bullish in and...
What time frame your bearish divergence??
A confident hunter knows the way of his prey.
  • #68,388
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:52am Oct 23, 2013 3:52am
Quoting anwiki
{quote} What time frame your bearish divergence??

Weekly Hidden Divergence
Daily and H4 Normal divergence
All bearish

Monthly is neutral

A/U Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,389
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:56am Oct 23, 2013 3:56am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Weekly Hidden Divergence Daily and H4 Normal divergence All bearish Monthly is neutral A/U Daily {image}
See the daily & H4 but I'm unsure what you mean by Weekly Hidden??
A confident hunter knows the way of his prey.
  • #68,390
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:59am Oct 23, 2013 3:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} To da moon Alice. All my buy positions are locked at BE because as I mentioned to you in previous communication, I don't trust this pair. However, so far so good and I'm still targeting 1.19/1.20 area. {image}
Just gimme 250 more pips and I'm out and very happy, will look elsewhere then for a similar move. Hopefully it all coincides with the perfect short in EUR/JPY
  • #68,391
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:59am Oct 23, 2013 3:59am
Quoting anwiki
{quote} See the daily & H4 but I'm unsure what you mean by Weekly Hidden??
Hidden divergence is also known as reverse divergence.
That is when price makes a lower high, but the histogram makes a higher high.

Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,392
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:01am Oct 23, 2013 4:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The pair is in overbought territory and is showing very strong bearish divergence, but for now it is still mid-term bullish. This is due to a combination of the technical factors I just mentioned, profit taking, a slight comeback in the USD and general malaise in the risk department (for now). As I posted earlier, if price manages to make a move below 9500 and manages to stay there, it could turn bearish quite fast and will likely be targeting wave 5 completion (8900 and lower). There is no case to be made for Aussie to be bullish in and...

Pal, i agree with your view... I am not that 'much' of a fundamental person, but given on the technical aspect.... Im seeing a reduction in bear power in UJ.... divergence within H4 ADX -DI and +DI at incline up based-line. I reckon UJ may shoot up.... vice versa for AJ.... i'm looking towards the Northside too.

Backing into AU, i do not commit to monitoring to this pair but the way i see the chart, its going south.... adding on to what makes me sticking to this view other than your views you gave.... I'm using and seeing this way, UJ AJ up = AU down.....some what the X over formula...

purely my view based on technical aspect and the beliefs.... with that said, i loaded the shorts once more....

Im favoring .88 zrea which you've mentioned and same time on the more distance run, .82....
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #68,393
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:01am Oct 23, 2013 4:01am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Just gimme 250 more pips and I'm out and very happy, will look elsewhere then for a similar move. Hopefully it all coincides with the perfect short in EUR/JPY
I'm looking for a perfect short in EUR/USD, but I've given up trying. That pair is F***ed.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,394
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:05am Oct 23, 2013 4:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm looking for a perfect short in EUR/USD, but I've given up trying. That pair is F***ed.
I'm yards away from that pair there is no logic in it there are better opportunities out there as you said yesterday GBP and AUD will move down quicker against the USD than the EUR will and look whats happening! Lesson learned
  • #68,395
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:05am Oct 23, 2013 4:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hidden divergence is also known as reverse divergence. That is when price makes a lower high, but the histogram makes a higher high. {image}
Thks. I'll do a bit of back testing.
A confident hunter knows the way of his prey.
  • #68,396
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:07am Oct 23, 2013 4:07am
Quoting anwiki
{quote} Thks. I'll do a bit of back testing.
If you are going to back test, save yourself some time and do it in the M15 chart. It works like a Swiss watch there.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,397
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:08am Oct 23, 2013 4:08am
Quoting RodMca
{quote} I'm yards away from that pair there is no logic in it there are better opportunities out there as you said yesterday GBP and AUD will move down quicker against the USD than the EUR will and look whats happening! Lesson learned
Yes, I should listen to myself more often.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,398
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:08am Oct 23, 2013 4:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} If you are going to back test, save yourself some time and do it in the M15 chart. It works like a Swiss watch there.
Will do !! )
A confident hunter knows the way of his prey.
  • #68,399
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:10am Oct 23, 2013 4:10am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i am still very biased for good reason... look at how the AUDUSD is finally dropping... the selling came later than i expected but it came... and i am short from 0.97125
Idk i mean shorting now is better than post .93 however small retrace is due but doesnt mean trend chances. As dollar continues to fall and fed continues qe risk assets are a buy
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #68,400
  • Edited 4:43am Oct 23, 2013 4:16am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Idk i mean shorting now is better than post .93 however small retrace is due but doesnt mean trend chances. As dollar continues to fall and fed continues qe risk assets are a buy
I agree Pip, but how much further do you expect the USD to fall against the commodity currencies?
Oil is melting down and raw materials are stagnating. That is surely not good for the commodity block (Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie).
On top of that, the USD is already below levels it was at before all this QE tapering hype started.

I'm not saying there is no more upside left in this pair. I'm just saying that any more upside should be limited and a re-visit of the lows should be favored in the mid-term. Face it. Until China returns to exponential growth (which will not happen until they resolve their own debt and banking crisis), the Aussie and Kiwi will have to keep unwinding in order to avoid massive unemployment and deflation.

As for the Loonie (since I mentioned it above), if China invests in their natural resources industries, that should keep it strong for a while through M/A flows, but ultimately, the longer term direction is as an underperformer until strong demand for raw materials and oil returns.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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