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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #5,861
  • Oct 10, 2013 2:23pm Oct 10, 2013 2:23pm
Quoting cg uno
but it's a crappy "statistic" anyway as the 80% depends on how well the fork is drawn in the first place - too many variables to base anything on, imho

Though you are certainly entitled to your opinion, the statistic as Andrews presented it is factual. I was introduced to median lines a very long time ago, mid eighties actually, and manually did the work on the charts, not a handful but thousands of charts and many thousands of alternating pivots. From the work I have done and the work others have done(some published as academic exercises) , one can conclude it is not a "crap statistic."

Using the information, however, is up to the individual trader and his tolerance for risk and trading methodology.
  • #5,862
  • Oct 11, 2013 7:54am Oct 11, 2013 7:54am
Wow that is very interesting. Were you mentored in a group by someone? What were the classes like? What were your fellow students like? I always wondered what such an experience would be like. In one of Tims recent webinars he talked about being approached for a "Turtle Trader" like mentorship program for a realty tv show.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,863
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:38am Oct 14, 2013 4:38am
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  • #5,864
  • Edited 3:22pm Oct 16, 2013 11:02am | Edited 3:22pm
4h chart updates

I just noticed this was my 1000th post on ForexFactory and I wanted to give another big THANK YOU to everyone here that runs this site and has helped me in any way, ESPECIALLY Tim Morge!
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,865
  • Oct 16, 2013 11:07am Oct 16, 2013 11:07am
Quoting surya97
{image} {image} {image}
It looks like you are drawing a lot. Nice work!
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,866
  • Oct 17, 2013 2:49am Oct 17, 2013 2:49am
Euro should be capped by 1.3620 zone
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  • #5,867
  • Oct 17, 2013 11:46am Oct 17, 2013 11:46am
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http://gannmasterforex.blogspot.com/
  • #5,868
  • Oct 17, 2013 9:49pm Oct 17, 2013 9:49pm
Quoting matei
{image} {image} http://gannmasterforex.blogspot.com/
Simple and to the point, nice charts and channels
  • #5,869
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:11pm Oct 17, 2013 10:11pm
Euro with similar thoughts, 1.44 would come in on the channel top and ab=cd

If your not already long. Here's a couple of spots to attempt shorts if seen ...... see zoom

fwiw...
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  • #5,870
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:24pm Oct 17, 2013 10:24pm
euro 240m
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  • #5,871
  • Oct 18, 2013 2:19am Oct 18, 2013 2:19am
thanks everyone...
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #5,872
  • Edited Oct 23, 2013 8:17am Oct 22, 2013 7:24pm | Edited Oct 23, 2013 8:17am
Interesting chart, my trade is still ON.
from another point of view... I'm selling at the bottom of the ML with spikes consecutively getting bigger.
What do you think?
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Update:
SL hit... price bounce up
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  • #5,873
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:36am Oct 23, 2013 3:36am
Quoting justcatalin
This is my chart euro usd 4h timeframe I expect euro to go at sliding paralel then up {image}

How does one draw these?
Does one start with a TL and replicate paralels or must one always use the pitchfork tool? When using pitchfork tool which 3 points to use. I find sometimes they line up and sometimes not. Sometimes, Price is moving more according to if one had drawn a TL and copied paralels off of it.
  • #5,874
  • Oct 23, 2013 6:45am Oct 23, 2013 6:45am
livindaylite,

The short answer to your question is: median lines use alternating pivots. That is the simple answer. But it will take a great deal of work to learn how to best use them. Each of us, depending on our experience "see" things on the charts differently. Contrary to popular belief, there is no one "right" pivot to use. There are pivots that will show you the overall big picture, those that will give you information about ongoing immediate trend, some will give you information on counter-trends. It all depends on the skill of the craftsman using the tools and not the tools making the craftsman. In your above post, your are asking the wrong questions.
  • #5,875
  • Oct 23, 2013 7:54am Oct 23, 2013 7:54am
Quoting xtsunami
livindaylite, The short answer to your question is: median lines use alternating pivots. That is the simple answer. But it will take a great deal of work to learn how to best use them. Each of us, depending on our experience "see" things on the charts differently. Contrary to popular belief, there is no one "right" pivot to use. There are pivots that will show you the overall big picture, those that will give you information about ongoing immediate trend, some will give you information on counter-trends. It all depends on the skill of the craftsman...
Thank you kindly for your reply, xtsunami.
However, that is rather disconcerting news. I ''think'' I need objective rules and criteria. Then its a question of whether I have applied them correctly, perhaps, or whether I have the discipline to follow my rules, which is the other aspect of trading currencies for a living. But, regarding the technical analysis side if we're all applying median lines differently, then that seems to me to be entirely subjective. We might as well throw random darts at the chart? or is that extreme extrapolation my misunderstanding.
I just don't know where to go from here. I am interested; it looks nice but I am wondering I guess, whether this do able on the right side of the chart or falls in easily when it is retro-fitted to the left of the chart, after the event. If I draw a line or a fork projected into the future how do we know what to do when Price reaches there if we're not sure whether our line or fork is drawn correctly?
  • #5,876
  • Oct 23, 2013 11:51pm Oct 23, 2013 11:51pm
4h charts
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,877
  • Oct 25, 2013 6:27am Oct 25, 2013 6:27am
Quoting livindaylite
{quote} Thank you kindly for your reply, xtsunami. However, that is rather disconcerting news. I ''think'' I need objective rules and criteria. Then its a question of whether I have applied them correctly, perhaps, or whether I have the discipline to follow my rules, which is the other aspect of trading currencies for a living. But, regarding the technical analysis side if we're all applying median lines differently, then that seems to me to be entirely subjective. We might as well throw random darts at the chart? or is that extreme extrapolation...
Trading is both objective and subjective, systematic and art. You can build for yourself rules for using median lines. But how I use them may be different than how you may use them.

If you are looking for a place to begin, start with alternating pivots. Very little art to this, just highs and lows....Watch how price moves in and around the lines as they unfold and begin to make observations from there. Andrews has made some rules:


There is a high probability that:
1. Prices will reach the latest ML


2. Prices will either reverse on meeting the ML or gap through it

3. When prices pass through the ML, they will pull back to it

4. When prices reverse before reaching the ML, leaving a “space”, they will move more in the opposite direction than when prices were rising toward the ML.

5. Prices reverse at any ML or extension of a prior ML.

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  • #5,878
  • Oct 26, 2013 3:21am Oct 26, 2013 3:21am
Quoting xtsunami
{quote} Trading is both objective and subjective, systematic and art. You can build for yourself rules for using median lines. But how I use them may be different than how you may use them. If you are looking for a place to begin, start with alternating pivots. Very little art to this, just highs and lows....Watch how price moves in and around the lines as they unfold and begin to make observations from there. Andrews has made some rules: There is a high probability that: 1. Prices will reach the latest ML 2. Prices will either reverse on meeting...
Thank you xtsunami for giving me a good place to begin. The chart is fascinating. Will try to absorb this and observe the expected behavior outlined around the Median Line.
  • #5,879
  • Oct 27, 2013 9:05am Oct 27, 2013 9:05am
Guys what other tools do you use in trading other that pitchforks, trendlines, S and R level? thanks!
Pecuniae obediunt omnia
  • #5,880
  • Oct 29, 2013 2:30pm Oct 29, 2013 2:30pm
PIPot,

Ask any two craftsmen what tools he has in his toolbox and you surely will find that there are similar tools in each. Ask those craftsmen and a rank novice, and the tools in the toolbox will likely be the same.

What matters is not the tool, but the hands, eyes, and experience of the one using it. For me personally, depending on market context, I use median lines, action-reaction lines, horizontal lines, price, my hands, eyes, and experience. At this time in my career, I use four hour charts, intraday charts only if I am feeling particularly spunky on any given day.

The real question is not what members of this forum use, but what will PIPot master and use?
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