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AUD/USD

  • #68,341
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:25pm Oct 22, 2013 11:25pm
Quoting kennychua
I will go against RBA
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  • #68,342
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:27pm Oct 22, 2013 11:27pm
The trigger was some Chinese banks possibly defaulting on debt .

Has a dead cat bounce feel about it
  • #68,343
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:27pm Oct 22, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} {image}
+1
There is no spoon....
  • #68,344
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:28pm Oct 22, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Newss likke this is only gona give RBA more ammunition to intervene on the strong AUD, we all know that they wanted to weaken the AUD for a very long time... dont go against the central banks, ever we have seen what SNB and BOJ can do... dont go against RBA. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...-october-2013/

this is not RBA.
  • #68,345
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:30pm Oct 22, 2013 11:30pm
damnit... i missed one heck of an opportunity....

Longing GBPNZD on yesterday's daily candle clos, for a target as shown at 1.9743 vs stop loss at 1.8870
that was good risk reward trade too damn!!!
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We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #68,346
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:31pm Oct 22, 2013 11:31pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} this is not RBA.
buddy, you wouldnt know if it was RBA doing the intervention or not... just dont ever go against a central bank. especially when they voiced their opinions...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #68,347
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:32pm Oct 22, 2013 11:32pm
retracement prophecy fulfilled? now the retracement will be retraced - 0.93 here we come
  • #68,348
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:33pm Oct 22, 2013 11:33pm
Quoting Gwan
retracement prophecy fulfilled? now the retracement will be retraced - 0.93 here we come
0.88 here we come.
call me nuts but i still see it in my charts
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #68,349
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:41pm Oct 22, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} buddy, you wouldnt know if it was RBA doing the intervention or not... just dont ever go against a central bank. especially when they voiced their opinions...
why you talk as if you know if it is RBA? these things always happened on the AUD ...it's part of the game...it's big boys game
  • #68,350
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:41pm Oct 22, 2013 11:41pm
Here comes the USD......got a second wind
  • #68,351
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:45pm Oct 22, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} why you talk as if you know if it is RBA? these things always happened on the AUD ...it's part of the game...it's big boys game
So tell me whos the Biggest boy on the AUD block?? if it aint the RBA who has power to print unlimited money as they please... theen i dont know who else...
Central banks are the biggest boys of them all....

FED, RBA, BOE, ECB, RBNZ, PBOC, SNB all these are central banks with unlimited power....
these are the banks you really dont want to go against, because they have pockets far deeper than the universe and you can get burned easily...

Heck... SNB pushed USDCHF (a much larger liquid currency pair) 2 years ago when it reached 0.75 up to 0.90 in a matter of an hour as they announced the CHF peg to the EUR....
so really if RBA wants to intervene hard.. they can drop the AUDUSD to 0.80 in a second if they want to...
all part of fundaemtnal trading... notice what the Central bank's direction for their currency is and try not to bet against it, so if RBA says they still thing AUDUSD is too strong where it is... it really is a signal to sell on rallies... and to stack up the sell orders...
meanwhile i dont see AUDUSD being bullish unless we make a higher high above the previous high we fell off from 1.06
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #68,352
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:48pm Oct 22, 2013 11:48pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...-defaults.html
  • #68,353
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:53pm Oct 22, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} So tell me whos the Biggest boy on the AUD block?? if it aint the RBA who has power to print unlimited money as they please... theen i dont know who else... Central banks are the biggest boys of them all.... FED, RBA, BOE, ECB, RBNZ, PBOC, SNB all these are central banks with unlimited power.... these are the banks you really dont want to go against, because they have pockets far deeper than the universe and you can get burned easily... Heck... SNB pushed USDCHF (a much larger liquid currency pair) 2 years ago when it reached 0.75 up to...
RBA does not intervene. Big boys intervene for her. Australia is a small market easy to be manipulated from outside. My view after this drop is that there could be more upside coming. I don't believe what China says about their banking sector.
  • #68,354
  • Oct 22, 2013 11:55pm Oct 22, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} this is not RBA.
It's the second gunman on the grassy knoll. He's trading currencies now (in massive quantites).
  • #68,355
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:04am Oct 23, 2013 12:04am
Quoting Greener
{quote} RBA does not intervene. Big boys intervene for her. Australia is a small market easy to be manipulated from outside. My view after this drop is that there could be more upside coming. I don't believe what China says about their banking sector.
Okay, to start off... Currency intervention by definition could only be done through monetary policy, and the only bank that has control over monetary policy are the Central Banks. so really if we talk about intervention on the AUD it can only be done by RBA. (in case you dont know what monetary policies are, one being interest rate and second being money supply)
As i said before, central banks are teeh big big boys, while the institutional banks like jp morgan and citi etc are small big banks
then we have Hedge funds, called the Big small players, and us the retail trader being the small small players...

the Big Big boys are the one capable of intervening as for the Small big boys like institution banks, they do not intervene the market since they cant control monetary policy, what they can do is dump their AUD reserves, but that requires them to have actual AUD in the bank's treasury to do so... they cannot dump something they dont own... but RBA can literally dump the AUD out of thin air by printing more.

As for the China Issue... i am actually not surprised about their banks having bad debt problems... why do you think i have stressed about Chinese Bank's Need for recapitalisation? and the shrinking of volume in the chinese credit market?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #68,356
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:17am Oct 23, 2013 12:17am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Okay, to start off... Currency intervention by definition could only be done through monetary policy, and the only bank that has control over monetary policy are the Central Banks. so really if we talk about intervention on the AUD it can only be done by RBA. (in case you dont know what monetary policies are, one being interest rate and second being money supply) As i said before, central banks are teeh big big boys, while the institutional banks like jp morgan and citi etc are small big banks then we have Hedge funds, called the Big small...
As I said earlier, RBA does not intervene. If China banks tripled bad debts due to signing loans to start ups or SMEs then it's good news. Who else can finance start ups or SMEs out there? However, China has an history in faking data.
  • #68,357
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:22am Oct 23, 2013 12:22am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} why even bother to short though? it is the wrong side of the market. even if/when we retrace to 94,95, etc. it is still a BUY
That's your view mate, check my few posts back I posted in this thread with full analysis on why am I expecting this pair to be dumbed
  • #68,358
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:25am Oct 23, 2013 12:25am
Quoting fxlover11
{quote} I am thinking when people will start to think it is worthless to short AU then it may go for some retraces. I have seen in two site percentage of long is increases above 50% now after having a long bull run where last week it was about 30% .
At last the expected retraces started with sharp fall. Its following JPy pairs and now also falling with them. May be strength of Yen cause the fall. Also USD is going to strong as USD index is almost near its bottom imo. Btw I don't think its going to .88xx fall. It will rise again with JPY pair after having retraces to .94xx
imo. The greater fall will come after rate cut and may be that time AU will be near 1.00.

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Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #68,359
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:33am Oct 23, 2013 12:33am
Quoting Greener
{quote} As I said earlier, RBA does not intervene. If China banks tripled bad debts due to signing loans to start ups or SMEs then it's good news. Who else can finance start ups or SMEs out there? However, China has an history in faking data.
unfortunately bbecause of the bad debt exposure China has, PBOC has repped up regulation on chinese banks forcing them to recapitalise of bad debts.
Another thing, China's increase of signing loans for SME and startups, does not directly affect the AUD economy
Chinese banks giving out chinese loans is domestic investment, nothing to do with the balance of tradde...
Remember theGDP formula? C+I+G+(X-M))

only tthing that affects australia is the (x-M) component, which has been shrinking. so how has china maintained its growth rate? by chinese banks pushing up the I component..
PPaints the picture of china's movee for domestic growth and away from traade.

BTW all central banks do Intervention, the simpleset form is say RBA reducing interest rate which they have been doing is already a form of intervention... so stop saying they dont intervene.... problem is we dont know precisely how much and when they intervene... only way to know is when the publish their quarterly data on their reserves...if you start to see the RBA's fx reserve rising, that means they are dumping AUD to buy EURO, GBP, and holding them just like the SNB did 2 years ago when SNB intervened by buying the EURO at unlimited quantity by pegging the EURCHF at 1.2
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #68,360
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:44am Oct 23, 2013 12:44am
I believe we may see bounce from the 9635-9600 area for a continuation higher. Before you bears who already have or might be waking up from hibernation/denial or a good old fashioned bending over don't jump down my throat, it's just my opinion.
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