i missed for eurusd....
4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
- #26,182
- Oct 17, 2013 11:53pm Oct 17, 2013 11:53pm
i missed for eurusd....
The only setup I will watch for on the Euro will be either a CT if there is a hit of the Resistance at the High or a Long on a retrace to the 8/21 level if confirmed with a TC on the Macd.
Perhaps you see something different - can you post again with a chart perhaps ,
Great to hear from you
- #26,184
- Oct 18, 2013 2:20am Oct 18, 2013 2:20am
Binnie, Your target was hit..so what is next? Bearish CoT or more bull power I have put my observations on the chart but I know my weakness now is knowing when to enter...I didn't understand this previously but I feel like i can get the rhythm but find myself waiting and waiting and waiting...just to see if i was correct...which saves me money hahaha So I am too early or too late.. cheers.... {image}
Nice chart & great question. Current Price Action seems steady but who knows what the next candle brings
. I see you have a D1 Trendline drawn & on your chart & this is acting as a form of Resistance. I have placed more emphasis on the BRN but that is just my way of seeing things. The last 3 candles are a bit smaller now & this can be a signal of uncertainty after the major reports in the past 48 hrs or is just telling us that traders are slowing down towards the weekend. Even though I anticipate a further run up, it would not surprise me at all to see some serious profit taking either so a trade would not be on my radar until the new week starts.You show a RT on the Macd & it is a nice shape. You would have a good case to have shorted at that 1st red rollover as our rules allow a CT away from strong S or R. Not sure whether you would have enjoyed playing though as there was not a lot of space (PIPS) back down to the BRN which was Resistance now Support.
For a TC to confirm a move ( & remember that the Macd is only the confirmation of your setup/signal) , I will look for price to come down to a solid Support area say the 8 /21/or a BRN AND THEN MOVE AWAY. Getting on board the PIP TRAIN when it is running with the trend ( >89) is a lot safer than trying to flag the conductor down when he is running at you .
Thanks for asking this mate - it makes me analyse the charts completely and in the process, I am learning more about my own system as well as learning to understand what you are seeing. Wish more members would post charts & comments - this is great learning and a whole lot of fun.
Have a great weekend everyone
B.
- #26,185
- Oct 19, 2013 2:34am Oct 19, 2013 2:34am
{quote} Hi Yaak, Nice chart & great question. Current Price Action seems steady but who knows what the next candle brings
Thanks for the analogy and your time and effort..
I had to zoom out to W1 to find a target and found 0.9862 this is the 200ma and Monthly resistance
0.9787 365ma on D1
I've now cluttered my chart with a new indicator (again groan) to show support resistance lines....i know i shouldn't but i find i do not draw the lines as often as i should which means that i am not using them in my trading.
I will be drawing BRN from now on..the little voice in my head use to whisper it but i ignored it...as you do = money gone !
My analysis is that we are for more gains but butting up against a
BRN.
Macd DT and RT.
Above/Away from the 8, 21, 89.
Are we coming into a retracement area..maybe for a day or two... slow move down to identified target areas...8, 21 S&R levels.
Then boom...onwards and upwards through the BRN !
Ideas, suggestions?
- #26,187
- Oct 19, 2013 5:58pm Oct 19, 2013 5:58pm
{quote} Thanks for the analogy and your time and effort.. I had to zoom out to W1 to find a target and found 0.9862 this is the 200ma and Monthly resistance 0.9787 365ma on D1 I've now cluttered my chart with a new indicator (again groan) to show support resistance lines....i know i shouldn't but i find i do not draw the lines as often as i should which means that i am not using them in my trading. I will be drawing BRN from now on..the little voice in my head use to whisper it but i ignored it...as you do = money gone ! My analysis is that we are...
Just looking at the weekly which I don't do too often and I am liking the possibility that par value 1.0000 is not far away. Of course I have been wrong before
Waiting patiently for Monday Open
@ TheDDReport: Greetings mate. Thanks for jumping in. Looking forward to sharing ideas & opinions.
- #26,190
- Oct 21, 2013 3:02pm Oct 21, 2013 3:02pm
Eur/Usd analysis... Waiting for retrace to 21 or 89 before confirmation to buy. 1) BRN above current price. 2)Price above / away from 8, 21 and 89. 3)Macd showing bearish lines when price is bullish (divergence?) Ideas suggestions welcome. {image}
This one is still building and the Rythym is setting up as we would like to see it. Price hit the BRN at 1.3700 and has made a slow & deliberate retrace to its Magnet ( the 8ma). There was a strong effort to return all the way to the 21 but according to our rules, it is not necessary to actually touch. I recall Phillip telling us that a mid-point retrace is all we need to see. This one is therefore perfect. Note the consistent Lower Highs in price and then look at the Macd. It also made a nice down trend with Lower Highs. IMHO, price has not just simply Stalled here, it has made an attempt to gather some support before putting in a deliberate charge toward that BRN Resistance. Macd is also quietly telling me that it now wants to play and is making a slow flattening out and I am looking for a nice turn up when the time comes.
Apart from that 1.3700 being a possible trouble spot again, there is the added headache just above it at 1.3712 which is the 2013 High. So beware of these possible hurdles.
My Chart Watch is for a trade above the high 1.3712 and it will not worry me if my anticipated TC confirmation is not until a close of a second Bullish bar.
Dont Forget Non Farm Payroll is coming
- #26,191
- Oct 21, 2013 11:21pm Oct 21, 2013 11:21pm
POUND :
I am posting this & hope someone will give some feedback. Perhaps Trademin might see this and offer his ideas. Yvon - we are waiting patiently for a drop down as in previous posts but I wonder if there is still a bit of space for price to make another charge up at least to recent Highs. Can you offer an idea on possible target measure here if I am seeing the making of a nice round cup ?
Cheers to everyone
I am posting this & hope someone will give some feedback. Perhaps Trademin might see this and offer his ideas. Yvon - we are waiting patiently for a drop down as in previous posts but I wonder if there is still a bit of space for price to make another charge up at least to recent Highs. Can you offer an idea on possible target measure here if I am seeing the making of a nice round cup ?
Cheers to everyone
- #26,193
- Oct 22, 2013 2:14am Oct 22, 2013 2:14am
{quote} Awesome thanks for the time...its amazing the little titbits that confirm and clarify things. Slow meander down in price and macd...can signal a build up of support and not a CoT... Nice as I have been fixed on this for a while and learning to ignore large fast candles. The problem with fast large candles is what do you do...go with them or against them and either choice is usually too late or early, IMHO. Flattening of the macd...i like it...so at this point would you switch to the H1 chart and wait for Macd to go over the zero line, or...
Yes - IMO these smaller candles are just showing that Price is taking a breather after a strong surge towards the 1.3700. The Big Players are not going to be interested in BUYING up there otherwise they would have continued a strong hunt up past that level. Even to the point of taking us to a new 2013 High. But they haven't done that ( Yet
). I don't have any idea what they are thinking & nor do I really care. All I ask is to be informed so I can jump on board the gravy train when it leaves the station. That's where Rythym plays its part - price has been consolidating and something is about to happen. We just don't know which way. If price heads north as expected, the Macd will be the final piece of the story for me - A TC confirmation.Now - there are a couple of issues I would have should a signal confirm. There is a zone above incorporating the BRN & 2013 High, Do I want to get involved just yet?? Is it better for me to play patience & look for a close past this barrier ? Sure - I may miss some initial momentum but if Price is being driven higher, then I have a good prospect of being aboard.
"Flattening of the macd...i like it...so at this point would you switch to the H1 chart and wait for Macd to go over the zero line, or stay on H4 and make sure the Macd is above zero..looking for a BoZ, ZB from the H4"
I am a believer that if I am trading the H4 then all signals & triggers are based solely on that T/F. I know Phillip will switch to the H1 where strong PA & Macd indicates a trade in our direction. He will use a breakout method of sorts to get an earlier entry rather than waiting for the H4 candle to close. This is another strategy he has covered in the Lessons but to be honest, I still have my hands full learning & practicing this method.(LOL
)"Waiting in anticipation of price action now...."
Me too my friend, although if you are on live account please be careful. Non Farm Payroll a bit later tonite.
Good luck all.
- #26,194
- Edited 11:15am Oct 22, 2013 5:48am | Edited 11:15am
POUND : I am posting this & hope someone will give some feedback. Perhaps Trademin might see this and offer his ideas. Yvon - we are waiting patiently for a drop down as in previous posts but I wonder if there is still a bit of space for price to make another charge up at least to recent Highs. Can you offer an idea on possible target measure here if I am seeing the making of a nice round cup ? {image} Cheers to everyone
ok, be careful this morning, 8.30 hrs is2 US reports that could bring volatility, but yes we could see a GBPUSD going higher,making a TC there where you mentioned.
USD
Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate.
---I went for silver. I am very glad the way it turned out!
On the daily, price broke the 21ema, as well as the downtrend channel, macd making RB, positive divergence. Got involve on oct 18 at the breakout in there, just above the 21ema. nice profit each time. Looks like a change in trend is in process.
Yvon
Yvon
- #26,196
- Oct 22, 2013 4:06pm Oct 22, 2013 4:06pm
Waaahey... Money in the bank from the Eur/Usd... used the same trading model as the Aud/Usd.. But i am now hooked on the Aud/Usd and really want to trade it...just to test my learning here on the open forum... My feelings now. Want to buy. Price broke BRN Retraced a little but stayed above. 4 Green bars on Macd and lots of room to go up. BUT...i am new to this currency and not sure if i am happy putting my stop loss under the last low nearly a 100 pips.. Ideas / suggestions... {image}
Thats where the downside of living in this great land of NZ comes in - the trigger time for me was 2am so this train left the station without me. At least it did not cost me anything for the ticket ( LOL
). The close of that trigger ( TC ) bar on the Macd had Price closed above our trouble spots that we talked about - the 1.3700 & the years High. Personally I would have been prepared to wait further for a close of a 2nd Macd bar if necessary .This would be just to give myself a bit more confidence that we were on our way.As for the Aussie - yep identical set up . We had the 0.9700 BRN sitting there as Resistance & in this case, it would have taken me the 2nd Macd close when Price closed above that level. Of course if you are an aggressive trader, your entry would have been about 15 pips better.
IMHO - this train has now departed. This is where your cool headedness and patience will help you mate. I have looked for any trouble zones just above and have spotted the Daily 200 ma at .9750 and a Resistance level with BRN at .9800. After that though, I am eyeing the possibility of a run back up to even money 1.000. What do you reckon about that little plan ?
General Question Here ??
How do we calculate if Macd is making a RT??.
I recall from the Lessons that the macd Level of >45 indicates that we are nearing an OVER BOUGHT level. Your Macd looks to be around 21 ish so really there is more room for price to travel onward. My idea on this one is that there is a sort of H & S forming on the macd and this might be telling us that something is about to happen. I am certainly no Macd specialist and in fact I only know how to read it from what our thread has taught me. Can anyone add to this please?
- #26,197
- Oct 22, 2013 4:15pm Oct 22, 2013 4:15pm
{quote} Hi Binnie, thanks for being active here, ok, be careful this morning, 8.30 hrs is2 US reports that could bring volatility, but yes we could see a GBPUSD going higher,making a TC there where you mentioned. USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment rate.
The USD reports certainly impacted the markets or at least re-inforced what we were watching for. I agree with you about being careful - especially this MAJOR news event. It is really just a time for watching.
Hope you are still in there earning your reward
B.
- #26,199
- Oct 22, 2013 9:04pm Oct 22, 2013 9:04pm
Hi, Took this trade EurJpy on 21st October and was close out on 22 October for a gain of 52pips. I was not there to watch the trade with the profit target was hit. Otherwise I could have adjusted my target and stop loss to make another 50pips gain. but no regret as all went well. Appreciate you insight to this trade and feedback if my analysis was sound. And hope I have made the chart easy to follow. Thanks for your support. {image}
Your selection of trade and the MM of it is good . I do not have this pair on my radar but it obviously suits your eye & TimeFrame for watching charts. Yep that large bullish candle earlier today was really the markets way of soaking up the news. Hey you cannot be at the screen all day so you achieved what you have set out to do . I really think you have a pretty good understanding of the H4 Method.
If I am permitted, I will just comment on 2 points that I hope will help you even further.
I see you have drawn a Trendline to confirm price moving up. This is probably the way you prefer to draw these lines but the more generally accepted way is to draw along the Lows for an uptrend and along the highs for a downtrend. I guess you have done this to provide a possible target level?? If it is purely to identify direction, you really only need to see where you are in relation to the 89. Of course having 2 confirmations in place is really a great idea.
Your trigger to enter is based on a SLIGHT rise in the Macd. Personally I will prefer a stronger action with a clearly visible Higher High shown. This is just my thoughts buddy. Each of us has his / her own little ways of doing things - so long they work
Continue to post your setups - it makes it interesting to view what other members see.
Good Luck
B.
- #26,200
- Oct 22, 2013 9:35pm Oct 22, 2013 9:35pm
WATCHING 
(IMHO )
AUSSIE : Pull Back to BRN 0.9700 / 8 /21 level then Mr. Macd to tell me to play nicely with all those Buyers who missed an entry at the break of the 0.9700 . At the moment, there is some Divergence showing and a RT here will possibly confirm some profit taking. We need to get back to the 8ma at a bare minimum.
KIWI : This is doing exactly what I have described above for its Big Brother ( the Aussie ). Price now mid-way between the 8 & 21 so I will watch for a nice bounce away if Macd tells me it is ok ( TC). Aggressive entry at close of 1st Bullish candle or safer entry if closes above the BRN again.
EURO and POUND : Both are similar to the pairs above. Each is showing a bit of consolidation and Divergence exists with the Macd's showing a wee inclination to roll over . My watch is for this to happen and that will give me another chance to play long.
Being all crosses of the USD, I would want to be very picky about which one to trade
Of course these are just my views and we all know that the market don't give a stuff about what I think
(IMHO )AUSSIE : Pull Back to BRN 0.9700 / 8 /21 level then Mr. Macd to tell me to play nicely with all those Buyers who missed an entry at the break of the 0.9700 . At the moment, there is some Divergence showing and a RT here will possibly confirm some profit taking. We need to get back to the 8ma at a bare minimum.
KIWI : This is doing exactly what I have described above for its Big Brother ( the Aussie ). Price now mid-way between the 8 & 21 so I will watch for a nice bounce away if Macd tells me it is ok ( TC). Aggressive entry at close of 1st Bullish candle or safer entry if closes above the BRN again.
EURO and POUND : Both are similar to the pairs above. Each is showing a bit of consolidation and Divergence exists with the Macd's showing a wee inclination to roll over . My watch is for this to happen and that will give me another chance to play long.
Being all crosses of the USD, I would want to be very picky about which one to trade
Of course these are just my views and we all know that the market don't give a stuff about what I think