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  • #241
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:10am Oct 22, 2013 3:10am
I also had to sleep, good talking to you!

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes I agree that rating agencies can do as they wish, but at the end of the day, it is the market that decides on the Treasury rates and not the rating agencies. As I mentioned earlier, the last time when S&P downgraded the US in 2011, the dollar actually rallied... as if the market was telling S&P to stuff it. Therefore, the only way the USD would take a hit over the debt ceiling issue is if the US actually defaults, or if the gov shuts down again and causes further damage to economic growth, because if such a default or shutdown were to...
  • #242
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:39am Oct 22, 2013 3:39am
Quoting TranceTrader
I also had to sleep, good talking to you! {quote}
Cheers

Hope you're well rested because I think we're in for a bit of volatility today... A trader's wet dream.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #243
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:42am Oct 22, 2013 3:42am
Part of my own analysis is based on how badly the reputations of the big three credit agencies were affected over the 2008 MBS's gradings. For them to sit on the sidelines again while the biggest economy in the world plays russian roulette would really start to question their credibility in my opinion.

Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi TranceTrader, I agree with PipTrapper on this issue. I also think it's worth noting how during the recent US Govt debacle, the market did not really flinch and herd into Risk-Off mode. Participants have a good sense of the long term issues and probably see through the smoke and mirrors being conjured by the central banks, rating agencies etc. My own sense is that the rating agencies' say-so is generally perceived to be a hollow relic. Not that it is irrelevant - the market will react to their ratings - but participants have become jaded...
  • #244
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:52am Oct 22, 2013 3:52am
Quoting TranceTrader
Part of my own analysis is based on how badly the reputations of the big three credit agencies were affected over the 2008 MBS's gradings. For them to sit on the sidelines again while the biggest economy in the world plays russian roulette would really start to question their credibility in my opinion. {quote}
Since the US is not facing a banking meltdown and corporate earnings are doing quite well, all the US needs is a bit less than 1% additional growth and their fiscal budget deficit would be eliminated, thereby eliminating the need to raise the debt ceiling. Surely the credit rating agencies realize this and that is why they have not been hasty in downgrading US paper.

Sure, if the DC clowns keep playing their childish partisan games, they will inflict more damage to the growth prospects and that could force the rating agencies' hands into downgrading them, but as I said earlier, I really don't think the markets give a toss.

Thanks to the Fed, according to the markets, bad econ data is good news. Disgusting isn't it?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #245
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:13am Oct 22, 2013 4:13am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi numbnuts, the way you lay out the inter-relations is logical and a welcome correlation refresher! a question: you're looking to long GU despite the case for weakening made in the HSBC document? I think the GU could continue rallying but it is on thin ice given the pressure on BoE to raise rates. Eventually they will have to. Perhaps you are planning to complete your trade in the interim?
Yeah I only hold trades for a week or so, I don't roll over to another week unless I find a really good reason to do so, and no good reasons not to.

The trade setup I am anticipating in G/U will take maybe two weeks to materialize, if it does materialize, so three to four weeks from now it should be wrapped up. Well before the cycle shift predicted in the HSBC doc.

I am not even sure I agree totally with the case made by HSBC for Sterling weakness - I try to avoid predicting what will or wont happen. I will keep it in mind, and if signs point to their predictions coming true I will simply make sure I am not long GBP or short USD at the time. Their predictions are noted in my journal.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #246
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:19am Oct 22, 2013 4:19am
Out of interest, when was the last time the US government was not running a budget deficit?

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Since the US is not facing a banking meltdown and corporate earnings are doing quite well, all the US needs is a bit less than 1% additional growth and their fiscal budget deficit would be eliminated, thereby eliminating the need to raise the debt ceiling. Surely the credit rating agencies realize this and that is why they have not been hasty in downgrading US paper. Sure, if the DC clowns keep playing their childish partisan games, they will inflict more damage to the growth prospects and that could force the rating agencies' hands into...
  • #247
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:24am Oct 22, 2013 4:24am
Quoting TranceTrader
Out of interest, when was the last time the US government was not running a budget deficit? {quote}
US government ran four consecutive budget surpluses from 1998 - 2001.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #248
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:27am Oct 22, 2013 4:27am
Thanks
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} US government ran four consecutive budget surpluses from 1998 - 2001.
  • #249
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:32am Oct 22, 2013 4:32am
hi all,

Good to see you're around DHT. You're not missing anything staying out of this market! Thanks for sharing your reading. Be sure to have a look at the HSBC doc PT posted yesterday - interesting reading.

EJ is slowly-slowly approaching its trajectory apex, so keep an eye on that one - we've got a sweet revenge trade in the making

I get a funny feeling (from the charts and general discussion) that the markets are entering holding patterns till year-end. No-one knows what's going on and the situation is, in a nutshell, fubar. Of course, a surprise event could upset the applecart but that is (in the words of "fool-turned-poet" Rumsfeld) an "unknown unknown".

Range strategy, I guess.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #250
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:45am Oct 22, 2013 4:45am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} Yeah I only hold trades for a week or so, I don't roll over to another week unless I find a really good reason to do so, and no good reasons not to. The trade setup I am anticipating in G/U will take maybe two weeks to materialize, if it does materialize, so three to four weeks from now it should be wrapped up. Well before the cycle shift predicted in the HSBC doc. I am not even sure I agree totally with the case made by HSBC for Sterling weakness - I try to avoid predicting what will or wont happen. I will keep it in mind, and if signs...

Seen and Good Luck with it!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #251
  • Oct 22, 2013 4:57am Oct 22, 2013 4:57am
Quoting venzen
hi all, Good to see you're around DHT. You're not missing anything staying out of this market! Thanks for sharing your reading. Be sure to have a look at the HSBC doc PT posted yesterday - interesting reading. EJ is slowly-slowly approaching its trajectory apex, so keep an eye on that one - we've got a sweet revenge trade in the making I get a funny feeling (from the charts and general discussion) that the markets are entering holding patterns till year-end. No-one knows what's going on and the situation is, in a nutshell, fubar. Of course, a...
Gidday Vensen

In that EUR/YEN 134.5 creeping up
got quiet a few closing 135 the rest off my longs small ones to 136 TP:nerd:
First short at 134 to 130
The EUR Beast is running a riot
talk about taking the long way down:nerd:
  • #252
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:02am Oct 22, 2013 5:02am
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si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #253
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:20am Oct 22, 2013 5:20am
NFP on a tuesday. WTF? I am not quite sure how to trade through this - normally I am out of the market when NFP hits and I use it as part of my weekend analysis and planning for the coming week. This NFP is a particularly crucial one too - when the Fed failed to taper in September it quoted unemployment figures as the reason, and this is the first major unemployment report since then. It will likely trigger more endless taper speculation either way, and provide some direction on USD in the coming week.

I still have my pending A/U order at the ready, since I think USD has more immediate downside potential than upside potential. I was strongly tempted though to pull it and give up on trading this whole week given the exceptional data schedule. If A/U doesn't pull back to .9600 today I am going into hibernation until the weekend.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #254
  • Oct 22, 2013 5:26am Oct 22, 2013 5:26am
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Gidday Vensen In that EUR/YEN 134.5 creeping up got quiet a few closing 135 the rest off my longs small ones to 136 TP:nerd: First short at 134 to 130 The EUR Beast is running a riot talk about taking the long way down:nerd:

hi Elite,

I haven't the stones to trade EU - the PA scares me!

As for EJ, patience is my watchword with that pair... what do you make of the current PA up to 134.60 ? You reckon a reversal is coming up? I see you mention short 134 to 130. I expect EJ will come down in a correction and then head back up without dipping lower than 132.00. Perhaps TP at the lower TL cutting just above 132.10 and then re-enter south if PA shows that's its intention? Alternatively, go long to the upper channel TL - I seriously expect EJ to be targetting 138.xx after a correction (wave B). Check your chart, but that's my view, Elite.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #255
  • Edited 6:04am Oct 22, 2013 5:41am | Edited 6:04am
Quoting numbnuts
NFP on a tuesday. WTF? I am not quite sure how to trade through this - normally I am out of the market when NFP hits and I use it as part of my weekend analysis and planning for the coming week. This NFP is a particularly crucial one too - when the Fed failed to taper in September it quoted unemployment figures as the reason, and this is the first major unemployment report since then. It will likely trigger more endless taper speculation either way, and provide some direction on USD in the coming week. I still have my pending A/U order at the ready,...

this is pure conspiracy but worth a brain-twizz:

The NFP figures are fiddled, right? So, I strongly suspect the figure will be massaged to necessitate ongoing QE at this stage. A figure that even vaguely implies taper sooner than later will open a can of worms that the Fed needs to keep contained at this stage or risk all hell breaking loose and a consequent loss of control over the markets (which is also an illusion - but another story).

A great NFP number tonight will start a domino-run implosion. Even a mediocre number would create doubt and a possible equities sell-off = high risk for Fed control. So disappointing NFP for sure.

</conspiracy>
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #256
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:01am Oct 22, 2013 6:01am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Elite, I haven't the stones to trade EU - the PA scares me! As for EJ, patience is my watchword with that pair... what do you make of the current PA up to 134.60 ?.
I view EJ as a pure derivative of EU and UJ. Multiply the current price of EU by the current price of UJ, at any time, the answer will always be the current price of EJ. (give or take the spreads)

Look at the price action of EU, look at the price action of UJ, combine the two together and viola - you have the price action of EJ. Therefore if you cannot read the price action on EU, you cannot read the price action on EJ - it simply isn't possible or logical.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #257
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:10am Oct 22, 2013 6:10am
Quoting venzen
{quote} this is pure conspiracy but worth a brain-twizz: The NFP figures are fiddled, right? So, I strongly suspect the figure will be massaged to necessitate ongoing QE at this stage. A figure that even vaguely implies taper sooner than later will just release all kinds of demons that the Fed need to keep contained at this stage or risk all hell breaking loose and a consequent loss of control over the markets (which is also an illusion - but another story). A great NFP number tonight will start a domino-run implosion. Even a mediocre number would...

I don't know if the NFP numbers are fiddled or not. If so, then the average wage drones employed by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics are all, every one of them, guilty of massive fraud and corruption for what? Because some funny looking little dude at the Fed wants a number slightly higher or lower? Their entire job consists of getting that number right. Sounds a bit.... moon landing conspiracyish to me. But stranger things have happened.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #258
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:13am Oct 22, 2013 6:13am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I view EJ as a pure derivative of EU and UJ. Multiply the current price of EU by the current price of UJ, at any time, the answer will always be the current price of EJ. (give or take the spreads) Look at the price action of EU, look at the price action of UJ, combine the two together and viola - you have the price action of EJ. Therefore if you cannot read the price action on EU, you cannot read the price action on EJ - it simply isn't possible or logical.

your point is fair, yes, EJ is the cross of EU and UJ.

but what "tames" EJ is the price factor of UJ: UJ has almost 100x more influence on EJ's movement than EU does because of how they are priced:

UJ: 98.36
EU: 1.3674

And as you say: I'm just going to admit it: I find EU hard to read and understand. And GU too actually. Guess they just don't suit my style. EJ has been the source of much disappointment in the past for me, but I can only hope to get an entry away when it turns down sometime in the next few months or years.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #259
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:29am Oct 22, 2013 6:29am
Quoting TranceTrader
Out of interest, when was the last time the US government was not running a budget deficit? {quote}
Sorry I was out enjoying sun, sea and fresh air as I do every day around this time.
I see numbnuts answered the question. Thanks numbnuts.

For more detail, here is a detailed table of deficits and surpluses indicating the leading party in the congress, senate and white house from 1947 to present.

http://www.davemanuel.com/history-of...ted-states.php

Also in Jan, Apr and Jun of 2013, the gov ran a surplus.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #260
  • Oct 22, 2013 6:35am Oct 22, 2013 6:35am
Quoting venzen
{quote} this is pure conspiracy but worth a brain-twizz: The NFP figures are fiddled, right? So, I strongly suspect the figure will be massaged to necessitate ongoing QE at this stage. A figure that even vaguely implies taper sooner than later will open a can of worms that the Fed needs to keep contained at this stage or risk all hell breaking loose and a consequent loss of control over the markets (which is also an illusion - but another story). A great NFP number tonight will start a domino-run implosion. Even a mediocre number would create doubt...
LOL @ Conspiracy
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