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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #1,121
  • Oct 18, 2013 11:21am Oct 18, 2013 11:21am
Quoting zorrotrader
Dear Ghous/All, As many other, I am also a long time silent follower of J16 and now this excellent thread from Ghous. Need your view on USDNZD Failed Fakeout. What could have prevented us from taking this trade. RN 0.84 ??? {image}
Hey Z,

The strong close on the fake out bar itself. Yes, there is a wick to the upside but there is absolutely no information there to confirm that there was some genuine selling coming into the market due to the small size of that upper wick.

Remember, at crucial swing points you are likely to expect some kind of a knee jerk reaction regardless of the motives of those that make up the trend. You need to be able to differentiate between true selling and the knee jerk, and the best way to do it is to 1) validate the location and 2) look for a favorable fake out bar with a long fake out wick and a very telling close on it.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,122
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:45pm Oct 18, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting ghous
Hey guys, Just wanted to drop in to announce something here. It will be hard for me to be as active on this thread as I have been right through from here on. Running a thread, and that too an active one, takes a lot of time. The videos, along with textual posts take time when you're really willing to put your heart into them and actually ensure they are valuable. I am not sure if I was able to succeed in living up to your expectations but I have nevertheless enjoyed the amazing response this thread came up with. While I had the time to do it, I...
Inspired indeed. If it wasn't for this thread i'd still be fumbling around trying to understand even the most basic of concepts, so, thanks for that.

As a side note, i enjoyed reading how you ventured into the world of trading - i pretty much did the same thing!

Thanks for the thread and generally putting me on the right path.
  • #1,123
  • Oct 18, 2013 9:52pm Oct 18, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting ghous
Hey guys, Just wanted to drop in to announce something here. It will be hard for me to be as active on this thread as I have been right through from here on. Running a thread, and that too an active one, takes a lot of time. The videos, along with textual posts take time when you're really willing to put your heart into them and actually ensure they are valuable. I am not sure if I was able to succeed in living up to your expectations but I have nevertheless enjoyed the amazing response this thread came up with. While I had the time to do it, I...
Ghous,

Thanks for all you have described in this thread. I think I am lucky in the sense that I saw this thread within few days of its inception. My strike has been quite high using this method and I can only credit you for my success. Its still early days, but I am pretty sure if I control my mind my strike rate will be even more higher.

Neytiri
  • #1,124
  • Oct 22, 2013 3:05am Oct 22, 2013 3:05am
Cheers ghous,

Thanks for tons of wisdom and knowledge here.
anyway I will tie up to j16 thread since you already been there too
  • #1,125
  • Oct 23, 2013 2:35pm Oct 23, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting ghous
Hey guys, Just wanted to drop in to announce something here. ...
Hi Ghous, thank you for sharing your thoughts an concepts in this thread. It is great inspiration for me.

Keep well with J16 group!
  • #1,126
  • Nov 7, 2013 3:33pm Nov 7, 2013 3:33pm
Hope this thread isn't dying

Some nice set ups today on the USDCHF and EURNZD daily charts
  • #1,127
  • Nov 7, 2013 6:58pm Nov 7, 2013 6:58pm
Thankyou for sharing the information. I will demo next week and share my results.
  • #1,128
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:11pm Nov 7, 2013 7:11pm
Quoting andyhardwick
Hope this thread isn't dying Some nice set ups today on the USDCHF and EURNZD daily charts
Can you post what you see?
  • #1,129
  • Edited 7:58pm Nov 7, 2013 7:47pm | Edited 7:58pm
Dup
  • #1,130
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:48pm Nov 7, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} I would have preferred a more accelerated attempt to breach the HHR there, so it wasn't a trade for me. But obviously it was off of a nice HHR and I also had the 150 EMA confluence going. Anyway, if I were in this trade I'd be pretty happy seeing that close below the 1400 RN. With a stoop above the 1400, I would now be looking for price to hit the trouble area marked in blue and eventually the second blue region. {image} g.
Hi Ghous

I know this is an old post I have quoted but I was reading through the thread from scratch again and thought this is a good example of what I wanted to ask you.

You have highlighted the FTA here which is a nice distance away and then said the could/should/might (or whatever) hit the 2nd level you have marked. My question is how would you be looking to manage this particular trade and why (in terms of taking pieces off, moving stops etc).

Edit - sorry cant see the chart - it is from post 210
  • #1,131
  • Nov 7, 2013 7:49pm Nov 7, 2013 7:49pm
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Can you post what you see?
Sorry mate no not at work. I woke up, scanned the charts/placed orders and then had to get ready and leave for work. They seem to be really obvious set ups though (I hope anyway lol)
  • #1,132
  • Nov 8, 2013 12:09am Nov 8, 2013 12:09am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Can you post what you see?
I think Andy was looking at these.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 Nov. 08 06.07.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #1,133
  • Nov 8, 2013 12:42am Nov 8, 2013 12:42am
thanks mate yes indeed. Both seem very solid I think.

What are peoples thoughts about taking full profit at the respective swing high/low versus anywhere else?
  • #1,134
  • Nov 8, 2013 4:58pm Nov 8, 2013 4:58pm
I took the EURNZD too and am out for more than 1R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZD 2013-11-08 a 23.50.50.png Size: 32 KB

Didn't like the consolidation just under the USDCHF setup and easily passed
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF 2013-11-08 a 23.51.15.png Size: 35 KB
  • #1,135
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:17pm Nov 8, 2013 10:17pm
Very interesting Ron, I see you took the retest of the level, nice

I took the FTA to be where the red line is, seems like i need to work on this

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHF.png Size: 25 KB
  • #1,136
  • Nov 8, 2013 10:26pm Nov 8, 2013 10:26pm
swung point..
nice sharing..
  • #1,137
  • Nov 8, 2013 11:32pm Nov 8, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting 4FXsake
{quote} I think Andy was looking at these. {image} {image}
does it means short usdchf?
  • #1,138
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:00am Nov 9, 2013 9:00am
Quoting andyhardwick
Hope this thread isn't dying Some nice set ups today on the USDCHF and EURNZD daily charts
EUR/NZD was an easy pass based on the massive PPZ it was headed into.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.png Size: 51 KB


USD/CHF was more tricky because its apparently off of a major PPZ. The problem I saw was the fact that the fake out bar failed to close within the prior small consolidation box as well as that H-U-G-E swing low from the left.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.jpg Size: 215 KB


I always prefer my fake outs to be the setups which blast through the HHR/LLS straightaway without any signs of a prior holdup. A halt just before price tries to break free of the HHR/LLS is a pretty vague chapter in the fake out story. If price blows past freely, there are more chances the move is a fake one, as that certainly wouldn't have allowed the big guns to unload their positions (for a breakout) near the HHR/LLS regions, whereas a prior holdup is often like the calmness before a massive storm (of orders in this case) because that brief period of sweet liquidity allows the concerned parties to be nicely positioned for the upcoming assault.

Put simply, think of these prior consolidation periods as the coiling of a spring. The more it coils and constricts the larger the force with which it eventually gets released. Some people also prefer to call this phenomena as "price taking a breather before resumption of the trend". Either ways, they aren't conducive to fake out scenarios. When taking setups where these exist, at best you need to make sure price closes right back within the consolidation period as otherwise, the easier path for price will always be the length of the wick of your so called fake out bar. In that case, the "fake out bar" was only an attempt to clear the track of any weak orders allowing price to then just flow through as we saw in the case of USD/CHF.

hope this makes sense.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,139
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:27am Nov 9, 2013 9:27am
Quoting andyhardwick
{quote} Hi Ghous I know this is an old post I have quoted but I was reading through the thread from scratch again and thought this is a good example of what I wanted to ask you. You have highlighted the FTA here which is a nice distance away and then said the could/should/might (or whatever) hit the 2nd level you have marked. My question is how would you be looking to manage this particular trade and why (in terms of taking pieces off, moving stops etc). Edit - sorry cant see the chart - it is from post 210
For this trade on gold, After that close below the 1400 region. My stop would have been placed above it with the underlying logic that it should hold. And that would have been the stop out point for me.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 192 KB


The general idea is, to simply notice how price makes it way into the trouble area. If I am trading the higher time frames such as the daily, I will sometimes even drop down to say the 4H to take note of the kind of reaction price is facing at the trouble area. If I get a holdup, I am mostly tightening my stop. If I see a swift move through my stop will often go just before the bar that "pops through" and if I see a reversal (as in a strong bounce) then I am more biased towards manually killing the trade.

Again I know this is probably pretty generic but I really can't be more specific when talking about my trade management in general. This is precisely why I was doing those "live trade videos" to give the viewers on spot feedback, thought process and actual trade management execution while in the trade as that's the closest I can get to delivering my strategy for trade management.

Hope this helps.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,140
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:29am Nov 9, 2013 9:29am
Quoting lenrod
I took the EURNZD too and am out for more than 1R. {image} Didn't like the consolidation just under the USDCHF setup and easily passed {image}
Fabulous work Lenrod! Really cool to see you not getting carried away on the EUR/NZD and taking your sure pips off that major PPZ. That's the way to do it

g.
I believe . . .
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