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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #521
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:59pm Oct 20, 2013 6:59pm
Quoting Starry
{quote} How large are your stop losses for daily-timeframe trades? Just wondering because ive never really done those sorts of trades before .

On Swissy trades no SL since PA is basically at the bottom.Your SL should be based upon your account size vs lot size and leverage.I use low leverage and small lots so I don't worry about it.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #522
  • Oct 21, 2013 8:07am Oct 21, 2013 8:07am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Bryno Keep doing what works for you.I am moving more and more towards longer term equity building strategy. Its nice to have 2 strategy slow and fast like you do. Right now I am more in defensive mode trying to survive the weak dollar. Regards
Ahh...right, Davit. The dollar weakness. The debt ceiling debacle last week was...something else. Well, I think it's entirely possible we are looking at a big weekly double top and GU...and your trade plan for the pair is still in tact.

right now I am looking at shorter term positions short on the GU. I regret not trading the 886fib confluence level short on the GU from last week....

Bryno
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  • #523
  • Oct 21, 2013 8:27am Oct 21, 2013 8:27am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Ahh...right, Davit. The dollar weakness. The debt ceiling debacle last week was...something else. Well, I think it's entirely possible we are looking at a big weekly double top and GU...and your trade plan for the pair is still in tact. right now I am looking at shorter term positions short on the GU. I regret not trading the 886fib confluence level short on the GU from last week.... Bryno {image} {image}

I hope you took some longs on Swissy
All mine are in profit +127pips since yeserday

3 of my GU shorts got stopped out and not rushing to short new ones yet since Tues and Thurs are huge Pound news. So you may get another chance.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #524
  • Oct 21, 2013 8:39am Oct 21, 2013 8:39am
Quoting Davit
Building a long term positions on Swissy 5 positions and may add more TP 97 700pip potential. {image}

I am watching the swissy too...I like the 382/786 fib confluence here at .89.

swissy weekly chart
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  • #525
  • Oct 21, 2013 8:49am Oct 21, 2013 8:49am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} I am watching the swissy too...I like the 382/786 fib confluence here at .89. swissy weekly chart {image}

It has a huge potential.I feel comfortable letting them run as far as they can but have 97 in mind.Overall I sense the US dollar is coming back a little.
Funny how Chinese punished US by downgrading US debt as though if their numbers mean anything.Entire Chinese economic data is fabricated.
They do own 1.2 Trillion US treasury bonds so I can see the nervousness.
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #526
  • Oct 21, 2013 9:09am Oct 21, 2013 9:09am
Quoting Davit
{quote} I hope you took some longs on Swissy All mine are in profit +127pips since yeserday 3 of my GU shorts got stopped out and not rushing to short new ones yet since Tues and Thurs are huge Pound news. So you may get another chance. Regards

Ehhhh...no, missed it...but looking at that .89 level. Nice on the 127.

I do see the busy week for the pound regarding news...also NFP tomorrow/US unemployment...should move the dollar. I am getting a better feel for the fundamentals now. It's back and forth...week by week. And it seems like one currency takes the spot-light at a time. Like the dollar for the last 3 weeks...then it sells off the day congress makes the 'deal.' And now the Euro...I do see the weakness you mentioned...as it approaches strong resistance levels.
  • #527
  • Oct 21, 2013 9:18am Oct 21, 2013 9:18am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Ehhhh...no, missed it...but looking at that .89 level. Nice on the 127. I do see the busy week for the pound regarding news...also NFP tomorrow/US unemployment...should move the dollar. I am getting a better feel for the fundamentals now. It's back and forth...week by week. And it seems like one currency takes the spot-light at a time. Like the dollar for the last 3 weeks...then it sells off the day congress makes the 'deal.' And now the Euro...I do see the weakness you mentioned...as it approaches strong resistance levels.

Smart thing to do is sell from Top on GU 6260+if the news is positive and hold.GU is overall bloated pig.Way overbought same for Euro
I am adding more funds on my accounts for this purpose.Once in profit will take it out.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #528
  • Oct 24, 2013 10:56pm Oct 24, 2013 10:56pm
I haven't posted in a while. I took a long weekend for myself after I made my profit mid-week and since then virtually all of my upside targets were hit (without me for the most part) though I was wrong about the top for Aussie and Kiwi. Now I need to re-evaluate what to do Forex-wise. Also, the stocks I want to pick up simply won't pull-back to give me a decent entry point -- this rally is messing with my bi-annual portfolio maintenance.

With the US dollar index hovering just above 79, one of the things I was thinking about was, knowing US$ will fall in three months when the US debt ceiling has to be (not) dealt with again could mean US$ first rises to capitalize on this like when you see price first move in the opposite direction after a data release. On the other hand perhaps the smart money will start flowing out now. I did note today there seemed to be a slow dumping of a large volume of US$ ...slow enough to be absorbed to maintain the best selling price as opposed to the kind of dump we're used to seeing which is intended to create cascade momentum through stops to be picked up again on the other side.

I've also been thinking about OPEC oil dropping as trading in non-OPEC oil starts to lift the US$ thumb Kissinger manged to impose back in the '70s which is what effectively made US$ the global base currency it is today. With Singapore recently adding direct Chinese RMB (renminbi -- "the people's currency") Forex trading it made me wonder how long before enough other markets adopt RMB trading that it will further undermine US$.

Anyway, these are the kind of things I think about when I should be focusing on technical charts. I've made enough profit this week so maybe I'll take another long weekend to mull things over further as I can't seem to come up with anything concrete as of yet.

Good trading to you.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #529
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:41am Oct 30, 2013 9:41am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Smart thing to do is sell from Top on GU 6260+if the news is positive and hold.GU is overall bloated pig.Way overbought same for Euro I am adding more funds on my accounts for this purpose.Once in profit will take it out.
Hey Davit...how are you doing with your trades ? Bernanke today could move some things for sure. Though I know you know that.

Bryno
  • #530
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:19pm Oct 30, 2013 2:19pm
Over the years the economic calendar has become a sort-of Lovecraftian monster, slowly eating away at my sanity. Despite knowing how the market works, my rational mind still recoils when I see my charts --all of them -- go crazy in reaction to the FOMC saying, exactly as expected, "nothing has changed and so neither are we doing anything different".

Why bother to have data and press releases at all? Someone should just say "one, two, three, go" considering how little bearing the subsequent moves have with regard to the content of the information anymore.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #531
  • Oct 30, 2013 2:41pm Oct 30, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting KADC
Over the years the economic calendar has become a sort-of Lovecraftian monster, slowly eating away at my sanity. Despite knowing how the market works, my rational mind still recoils when I see my charts --all of them -- go crazy in reaction to the FOMC saying, exactly as expected, \"nothing has changed and so neither are we doing anything different\". Why bother to have data and press releases at all? Someone should just say \"one, two, three, go\" considering how little bearing the subsequent moves have with regard to the content of the information...
Nice term (Lovecraftian monster, never heard it before).

I agree with you, totally ridiculous reaction in the markets for nothing.

And the worst part of it is that we read "Sentiment acrcoss the board waiting FOMC announcement on Wednesday". So we don't only get choppy days before the news release but an adjustments 3 or 4 days after... for nothing.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #532
  • Oct 30, 2013 4:15pm Oct 30, 2013 4:15pm
Quoting horuxito
{quote} Nice term (Lovecraftian monster, never heard it before). I agree with you, totally ridiculous reaction in the markets for nothing. And the worst part of it is that we read \"Sentiment acrcoss the board waiting FOMC announcement on Wednesday\". So we don't only get choppy days before the news release but an adjustments 3 or 4 days after... for nothing.
If you're not familiar with H. P. Lovecraft's horror fiction (Cthulu), here's the key relevant section from the Wikipedia entry:

Quote
[list][*]Helplessness and hopelessness. Although Lovecraftian heroes may occasionally deal a \"setback\" to malignant forces, their victories are temporary, and they usually pay a price for it. Otherwise, subjects often find themselves completely unable to simply run away, instead driven by some other force to their desperate end.[*]Unanswered questions. Characters in Lovecraft's stories rarely if ever fully understand what is happening to them, and often go insane if they try.[*]Sanity's fragility...
...sounds like a daytrader to me.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #533
  • Oct 30, 2013 5:24pm Oct 30, 2013 5:24pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} If you're not familiar with H. P. Lovecraft's horror fiction (Cthulu), here's the key relevant section from the Wikipedia entry: {quote} ...sounds like a daytrader to me.
Thanks, very informative. Maybe I was familiar with the genre but is known differently in my language.

If lovecraftian is daytrading, then I'm a lovecraftian trader, although there's not much horror in my case
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #534
  • Edited 4:45am Oct 31, 2013 3:58am | Edited 4:45am
Though I'm not happy about where AUD/USD is with regard to price trend lines, daily RSI has confirmed the bounce from support and it does have confluence with Fibonacci for the move up over the last month. It has (essentially) remained above yesterday's 0.94 close so I am bullish above ~0.95 targeting a double top at 0.975 though I may take profit at 0.97.

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Change of trend has been confirmed with RSI on mid-term time frames though it has yet to break through descending channel resistance (red) or descending pivot (green) or descending resistance on the hourly (not shown).


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Addendum: Hourly RSI just breached resistance but I am waiting for a retest of hourly RSI support and/or yesterday's high to be retested as support from above before adding a full long position. NZD/USD is similarly positioned and I am waiting for similar entry confirmation signals.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #535
  • Oct 31, 2013 5:40am Oct 31, 2013 5:40am
Though it's a bit premature, GBP/USD has hit daily RSI and price trend line support, and the 1.60 area has definitely proven to be supportive in the past. I believe 80 is the top for the US Dollar index so this is a likely where Cable will turn bullish targeting 1.625 initially.

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Hourly RSI is in an ascending channel and approaching descending resistance but it will be a few hours before a break of either can be confirmed, a strong reaction from the US jobless figures at 8:30 a.m. EST notwithstanding. Its failure to pull back sharply from descending resistance (red) suggests a break upwards is more likely than not so I'm willing to place a long entry on 5-min RSI confirmation with a stop just below 1.60 as the risk/reward is favourable.

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #536
  • Oct 31, 2013 6:34am Oct 31, 2013 6:34am
It will depend on what happens after US jobless claims, but this appears be strong support for EUR/USD. Price is sitting on the median ascending trend line and the 50% Fibonacci of the last move up which is also a prior high. Daily RSI is also at pivot support. Upper target is 1.3825 and a break below targets 1.34725.

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On the 2-hour chart, both price and RSI are at descending support.

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #537
  • Oct 31, 2013 7:55am Oct 31, 2013 7:55am
On nothing new from the FOMC yesterday, markets go crazy. On US jobless claims below expectations nothing happens. Nothing at all -- the markets are eerily dead as if we're waiting for something to happen. Is it a holiday and no-one told me? Did New York go dark? Even the Loonie stopped in place after an initial move after favourable GDP.

Maybe the market took my suggestion yesterday seriously and we're just waiting for Lew to say "go".
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #538
  • Oct 31, 2013 7:59am Oct 31, 2013 7:59am
Hi KADC
I still have hangover from REd Sox party last night so I will respond to your posts later when I am coherent.I am still short bias targeting 1.55
Enjoy the Halloween
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #539
  • Oct 31, 2013 8:00am Oct 31, 2013 8:00am
Since nothing is happening, here are my charts for NZD/USD which made a 100% retracement of the previous move. Similar to AUD/USD, daily RSI has bounced off support.

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The 2-hour chart has broken RSI resistance with well-defined support. Price is above the 23.6% and is testing two lines of resistance. I'm looking to buy on even a small pull back ...if the markets start moving again.

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You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #540
  • Oct 31, 2013 8:03am Oct 31, 2013 8:03am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Hey Davit...how are you doing with your trades ? Bernanke today could move some things for sure. Though I know you know that. Bryno

Closed all profitable shorts on GU at 6040 and added 3 new shorts on GC 6780-90 area.GC shorts already in profit.I am targeting 400pips south.
With positive swap I can afford to wait.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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