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AUD/USD

  • #68,181
  • Oct 19, 2013 7:29am Oct 19, 2013 7:29am
guys , did anyone see a LH almost completed in Monthly chart ?
  • #68,182
  • Oct 19, 2013 8:45am Oct 19, 2013 8:45am
I'm currently waiting for a sell signal between .9760 and .9800. Not only is this an untouched 4 hour supply zone, but area is also confluent with the 50% retracement of the latest weekly swing. First target will be .9520.
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  • #68,183
  • Oct 19, 2013 7:05pm Oct 19, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting fxlover11
{quote} Yes Sir , I also think that it is just a speculation . Just expected a a gap down to satisfy my count which may not proved correct. Also another thing that I have observed most of time when price goes up at the closing I see gap down at the Sunday open. Also after reaching .96xx I have changed my previous count of wave 5 down to .88xx or something, as I have doubt whether the previous 5 wave impulse down was wave 3 down or wave c of wave 4 in a bullish cycle. If I count it as a correction of wave 3 down then I have seen wave 4 overlapping...
Regardless of the wave count, we clearly have a very strong bearish divergence, so a pullback to previous resistance at 0.9527 to test as support should play out. From there we shall see. Might be worth placing a long position there with a stop just below 0.9500 to target a retest of the highs.

If 0.9527 to 0.9500 fails to hold then we have 0.9280 support to contend with. That would be another place for a possible long with a tight stop just below. However, if that fails too, then we're likely heading down to complete a wave 5 below 0.8900.

I'm trying to be non-biased here, but it's really hard to do based on what I see on the charts right now. Step by step I guess.

Regardless, I'm still short from 0.9572 and 0.9499 plus I plan to add another one if I get a good price when the markets re-open. Those 3 positions will get me out in the green by closing 9572 and 9499 on a re-test of 9527 and will leave me with a green position if I manage to establish a new one when the markets open.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,184
  • Oct 19, 2013 7:09pm Oct 19, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Regardless of the wave count, we clearly have a very strong bearish divergence, so a pullback to previous resistance at 0.9527 to test as support should play out. From there we shall see. Might be worth placing a long position there with a stop just below 0.9500 to target a retest of the highs. If 0.9527 to 0.9500 fails to hold then we have 0.9280 support to contend with. That would be another place for a possible long with a tight stop just below. However, if that fails too, then we're likely heading down to complete a wave 5 below 0.8900....

you must be crazy to short this market...or you probably have a huge enough account to wait it out..i see this thing going to parity before it tanks
  • #68,185
  • Oct 19, 2013 11:47pm Oct 19, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Regardless of the wave count, we clearly have a very strong bearish divergence, so a pullback to previous resistance at 0.9527 to test as support should play out. From there we shall see. Might be worth placing a long position there with a stop just below 0.9500 to target a retest of the highs. If 0.9527 to 0.9500 fails to hold then we have 0.9280 support to contend with. That would be another place for a possible long with a tight stop just below. However, if that fails too, then we're likely heading down to complete a wave 5 below 0.8900....

Hey PT. Where are you seeing divergence.??
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  • #68,186
  • Oct 20, 2013 12:52am Oct 20, 2013 12:52am
am flat and still waiting bull to complete for bear setup.... once she's on zone of interest.. probably there's bearish 3 drive setup also .. but again am still flat for this pair...
not euphoria follower
  • #68,187
  • Edited 5:59am Oct 20, 2013 5:42am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} Hey PT. Where are you seeing divergence.?? {image}
I use MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) to measure divergence. The CCI is an oscillator and typically a reading over 100 is considered overbought. Therefore your CCI reading confirms my view that a pullback is definitely due.

Here is the divergence I am talking about.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,188
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:44am Oct 20, 2013 5:44am
My thoughts are on a continuation up to around 0.9730 Monday & Tuesday. A catalyst (excuse) for a retrace to around 0.95 will probably be the AUD consumer prices index at 11.30am Oz time on Wednesday.
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  • #68,189
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:51am Oct 20, 2013 5:51am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I use MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) to measure divergence. The CCI is an oscillator and typically a reading over 100 is considered overbought. Therefore your CCI reading confirms my view that a pullback is definitely due. Here is the hidden divergence I am talking about. {image}
I see what you are getting at but the CCI can sometimes stay in so called over bought territory for a long time & I think your MacD is still not yet fully developed.....Just the way I see it...Cheers.
Money Makes Money
  • #68,190
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:59am Oct 20, 2013 5:59am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} I see what you are getting at but the CCI can sometimes stay in so called over bought territory for a long time & I think your MacD is still not yet fully developed.....Just the way I see it...Cheers.
I have to agree with you on that point, but there is not much left to go. The signal line has been hugging the slow stoch for too long now without relieving the divergence. Any more upside from here without a correction first will have to be very slow and weak unless there is a surprise which busts the divergence... which I doubt very much at this point.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,191
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:02am Oct 20, 2013 6:02am
The best indicator so far

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  • #68,192
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:17am Oct 20, 2013 6:17am
Quoting Ken A
The best indicator so far {image}

defined by how ?

One is not leading the other and you never know when reversal comes.

yes, they move in sync but that doesn't give you a trading opportunity.
  • #68,193
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:23am Oct 20, 2013 6:23am
This thing finally came to my level. I'm going to short it early in the week for a daytrade!
  • #68,194
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:24am Oct 20, 2013 6:24am
Quoting Ken A
The best indicator so far {image}

Ken A is that fibonacci levels???? I daily fibo's are not even close to that. I guess it all depends where you put you A-B thought.
  • #68,195
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:26am Oct 20, 2013 6:26am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I have to agree with you on that point, but there is not much left to go. The signal line has been hugging the slow stoch for too long now without relieving the divergence. Any more upside from here without a correction first will have to be very slow and weak unless there is a surprise which busts the divergence... which I doubt very much at this point.

and as always...by the time there SHOULD be the last time for a technical correction a strong news event is knocking on the door potentially screwing any technical setup
  • #68,196
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:33am Oct 20, 2013 6:33am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} defined by how ? One is not leading the other and you never know when reversal comes. yes, they move in sync but that doesn't give you a trading opportunity.

You are always 100% correct

Quoting dpaulinla
{quote} Ken A is that fibonacci levels???? I daily fibo's are not even close to that. I guess it all depends where you put you A-B thought.
No, the top chart is EUR/AUD inversely correlated with AUD/USD.
  • #68,197
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:48am Oct 20, 2013 6:48am
LUMESH.{quote} No, the top chart is EUR/AUD inversely correlated with AUD/USD.[/quote]..........




Haha I thought you was just pulling our legs or was just a nutter. Didn't take the time to note they were different pairs.
NOW I agree with you whole heartedly.....
Money Makes Money
  • #68,198
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:53am Oct 20, 2013 6:53am
Quoting KiwiOz
Haha I thought you was just pulling our legs or was just a nutter. Didn;t take the time to note they were different pairs. NOW I agree with you whole heartedly.....
Alright since you understand and being nice, this is more detail

Have a look at EUR/AUD chart H1, pay attention to the repetition then compare it to AUD/USD chart of same time frame. You will see the pattern that presents trading opportunities.

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  • #68,199
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:07am Oct 20, 2013 7:07am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Alright since you understand and being nice, this is more detail Have a look at EUR/AUD chart H1, pay attention to the repetition then compare it to AUD/USD chart of same time frame. You will see the pattern that presents trading opportunities. {image} {image}
Hey I'm always nice. (almost always). Share n share alike I say. Eur/Aud chart for you to compare..Note how the target lines work in with the Fib's....Cheers

This also gives an indication of what the Aud/Usd is gonna do. But you already know that....
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Money Makes Money
  • #68,200
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:21am Oct 20, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Don't be greedy they say {image} {image}

Off to bed. Trading day in the morn'
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