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AUD/USD

  • #68,121
  • Oct 18, 2013 6:23am Oct 18, 2013 6:23am
I will be watching 9633/36 for a short term long scalp if the opportunity presents itself...
Enter Signature
  • #68,122
  • Oct 18, 2013 6:54am Oct 18, 2013 6:54am
Quoting SpartanTrade
I don't believe this thing is going back to 92 let alone 88 let alone low 80's that some bears are praying for. I think we may see slight pullback but just another opportunity to load long. Bears are turning to bulls and as I've always stated, things aren't that bad down under. Furthermore, the farcical debt resolution and the "to come" tapering will not do much to slow down aussie. It's has been somewhat factored in but don't be suprised that official tapering is good for worldwide economies not just US. We may not see US dollar strength as predicted...
There are many opinions flying around about whether or not the Aussie is ready to reverse course.
From my perspective, it could very well go higher from here(after a correction to alleviate the divergence and O/B conditions at current levels), but according to my EW count, we are definitely heading back down at some point. It may end up being a double bottom as a truncated 5th wave, but down nonetheless.

The upside limit (after a correction) would be near parity.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,123
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:05am Oct 18, 2013 7:05am
Quoting PipTrapper
US Non-Farm Payroll report for September to be released on Tuesday October 22nd
US Consumer cpi (inflation) report for September will be released on Wednesday 23rd October
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,124
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:10am Oct 18, 2013 7:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} There are many opinions flying around about whether or not the Aussie is ready to reverse course. From my perspective, it could very well go higher from here(after a correction to alleviate the divergence and O/B conditions at current levels), but according to my EW count, we are definitely heading back down at some point. It may end up being a double bottom as a truncated 5th wave, but down nonetheless. The upside limit (after a correction) would be near parity. {image}
Thanks for explanation, agree to disagree.

Can I ask, what would your assessment be if a currency is showing all positive fundamentals current and near-mid term future but your EW analysis is saying short?
I'm not into EW nor do I personally put any validity in it as there are a million different interpretations, time frames, excuses etc by those that use it but I would be interested to know what you would do. (no offence meant)

The only way your analysis is correct Piptrapper is if there are thousands upon thousands of others who have that exact same EW perspective.
Cheers
  • #68,125
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:12am Oct 18, 2013 7:12am
wondering how long will I shut down the pc after that H1 pinbar off 200 daily ema?
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Don't give up
  • #68,126
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:17am Oct 18, 2013 7:17am
Is mr fxtyrant still around?
  • #68,127
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:19am Oct 18, 2013 7:19am
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} Thanks for explanation, agree to disagree. Can I ask, what would your assessment be if a currency is showing all positive fundamentals current and near-mid term future but your EW analysis is saying short? I'm not into EW nor do I personally put any validity in it as there are a million different interpretations, time frames, excuses etc by those that use it but I would be interested to know what you would do. (no offence meant) The only way your analysis is correct Piptrapper is if there are thousands upon thousands of others who have that...
The Euro showed all negative fundamentals until the recent green shoots started to emerge, while at the same time the US economy was showing much more strength and promise. However, look where the Euro is priced. Therefore your argument about how the fundamentals will lead the way are not as solid as we both would like.

Look, I'm with you on how the capital should flow from weaker economies into stronger ones, but unfortunately the CBs currently have a monopoly on which currencies get to zero first. RBA's Stevens is determined to devalue the Aussie, so I'm going with him, backed up by my EW count, extreme bearish hidden divergence, chart harmonics and a bit of gut feeling thrown in the mix. All you have offered up so far is unspecified fundamental reasons. If the Aussie is in a secular bull stage, then I would love to be buying it on the next dip. However, you haven't really given me much to convince me. If you have other good reasons for a buy, let's have them... please
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,128
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:23am Oct 18, 2013 7:23am
Quoting geomink
wondering how long will I shut down the pc after that H1 pinbar off 200 daily ema? {image}
Looks beautiful
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,129
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:24am Oct 18, 2013 7:24am
Quoting SpartanTrade
Is mr fxtyrant still around?
Haha. I asked that same question on Wednesday. I don't think he fared very well on this move up.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,130
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:29am Oct 18, 2013 7:29am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The Euro showed all negative fundamentals until the recent green shoots started to emerge, while at the same time the US economy was showing much more strength and promise. However, look where the Euro is priced. Therefore your argument about how the fundamentals will lead the way are not as solid as we both would like. Look, I'm with you on how the capital should flow from weaker economies into stronger ones, but unfortunately the CBs currently have a monopoly on which currencies get to zero first. RBA's Stevens is determined to devalue...
Calm down Pip,
I actually have given detailed reasons more than 3 times in this thread. I'm not saying your wrong. I just disagree, and if you want to listen to the worst reserve bank governor in history then I wish you all the best. Heck, my preference would be for us to see 92 even 88 as a stretch and I will happily load up long again as I did last 2 months all the way to where i said we would be. I think we may get a small pullback around where we are now even up to 9700 but we will see 1.00-1.03 before we break 88 (if we break..). But hey, I'm not stuck on long, I'm happy to make money shorting if it makes sense to.
  • #68,131
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:35am Oct 18, 2013 7:35am
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} Calm down Pip, I actually have given detailed reasons more than 3 times in this thread. I'm not saying your wrong. I just disagree, and if you want to listen to the worst reserve bank governor in history then I wish you all the best. Heck, my preference would be for us to see 92 even 88 as a stretch and I will happily load up long again as I did last 2 months all the way to where i said we would be. I think we may get a small pullback around where we are now even up to 9700 but we will see 1.00-1.03 before we break 88 (if we break..). But...
LOL No worries. I'm calm. I guess I missed your previous posts where you offered up a case for the bulls.
In fact I was calling for a major correction up to 9500/9600 back in early September based on the confirmed inverted H/S and was even speculating a correction in August after completion of the B wave (at 8900) of this correction. My calls were dismissed. By the way, those calls were mostly based on technicals and a speculation that Stevens would not cut rates because the markets lowered the Aussie for him already. If you wish, I can go back and look for those posts and supply links. Anyway, my point is that you and I see this from the same perspective. We just disagree on a re-visit of the lows and how high this correction will take us.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,132
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:37am Oct 18, 2013 7:37am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} LOL No worries. I'm calm. I guess I missed your previous posts where you offered up a case for the bulls. In fact I was calling for a major correction up to 9500/9600 back in early September based on the confirmed inverted H/S and was even speculating a correction in August after completion of the B wave (at 8900) of this correction. My calls were dismissed. By the way, those calls were mostly based on technicals and a speculation that Stevens would not cut rates because the markets lowered the Aussie for him already. If you wish, I can...
It's all good.

LOL asking about fxtyrant. YOu might be right that he took a hit with this sustained up move but hopefully not too big a hit.
  • #68,133
  • Oct 18, 2013 7:59am Oct 18, 2013 7:59am
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} It's all good. LOL asking about fxtyrant. YOu might be right that he took a hit with this sustained up move but hopefully not too big a hit.

Too late. I went hunting anyway

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...06#post6871406
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post6865415
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post6939182
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post6954168
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...39#post6954339
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...16#post6983716
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post6984121
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post6991968
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,134
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:05am Oct 18, 2013 8:05am
hope we see gap 100 pips on monday
  • #68,135
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:07am Oct 18, 2013 8:07am
Quoting khol_hands
hope we see gap 100 pips on monday
gap down
  • #68,136
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:10am Oct 18, 2013 8:10am
Quoting khol_hands
hope we see gap 100 pips on monday
Quoting khol_hands
{quote} gap down
LOL I was wondering which way you were hoping for.

Actually we may in fact get a gap up, if we get a gap at all... and that would likely be the final stroke before the Aussie rolls over... unless it rolls over before close today.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,137
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:12am Oct 18, 2013 8:12am
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} It's all good. LOL asking about fxtyrant. YOu might be right that he took a hit with this sustained up move but hopefully not too big a hit.
This was his final rant two days ago. I hope he's okay.

Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} soo?? Bullish engulfing near the top of the range is the best candles to fade! Now bullish engulfing at the bottom of range is the best for hints of reversal.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #68,138
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:14am Oct 18, 2013 8:14am
Quoting fxlover11
My h4 wave count and projection,,,,, {image}
My AU weekly wave count....

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU weekly.png Size: 41 KB
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #68,139
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:15am Oct 18, 2013 8:15am
hi piptrapper, news or intention from rba reserve cant be believe. it will happen only after months.
ppl over here are mostly scaplers with high leverage hence cant afford to wait 300 pips up then down.

AUD/USD Uptrend

Fundamental : tapering ease off, resulting in Asian and emerging markets upbeat
Fundamental : USD dollar seems as not safe currency, favours towards AUD
Fundamental : Seasonal behavior of end of Oct to be high
Fundamental : China market still growing, US market weak, Pro- Asian as emerging market
Fundamental : USD will try to keep low dollar value to attract more import/export trades
Fundamental : AUD as a stable economy rich in commodities
Technical : Correction upward cycle from 1.06 drop (jun 2013)

AUD/USD Downtrend:

Fundamental : BIG banks want to play out retail traders
Technical : USD rebounce from 8 month low
Technical : AUD/usd reached weekly pivot and near to monthly pivot
  • #68,140
  • Oct 18, 2013 8:17am Oct 18, 2013 8:17am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} This was his final rant two days ago. I hope he's okay. {quote}
What about the engulfing humble pie candle! LOL
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