Monthly Pivots on Daily Charts

The strategy is: -

If the first day of the month closes above the pivot line then, more often than not, it will hit the R1. Conversely, if the first day closes below then there's a high probability that it will hit S1.

The SL would always be the pivot line. If the SL gets hit but the price then crosses the pivot line and closes on the other side then that's another trade in the opposite direction.

In the screen print of GBP/USD over the last 5 months: -
1. First day closes above so a buy is triggered but the SL is hit.
2. The bar crosses and closes below the pivot so a sell is triggered and this time we hit the TP.
3. First day closes above so a buy is triggered and the TP is hit
4. First day closes below so a sell is triggered and the TP is hit
5. First day closes above so a buy is triggered and the TP is hit
6. First day closes above so a but is triggered and the TP is hit

The only down side is that some months price hovers around the pivot - for example June 2012 & July 2012 - and you end up with 3 or 4 or 5 trades that hit the SL.

I know it's not an extensive test but I think it might have merit, it just needs a little refining.

Thoughts please?

Attachment

I've had a look at your strategy over the last 2 years for Cable and it would've made 2800 pips...but not looking quite so good this month.

No, but looking a bit healthier now.

Forgot to say in the OP that if the trade is still open at the start of the new month then it can be left open if the price is in the appropriate position above/below the new pivot line.

If it's not then close it an open a trade the opposite way.

More often than not the trade is in profit if it is still open when the new month starts.

i will keep watching.

Good