AUD/USD

possible but too early to say

shall see in the next hours

if it will not make new high of course otherwise..............

News and technicals and political environment all "orchestrated" nicely together, seems like there is a big player out there or team to dictate the trend.
Now aud is following the seasonal trend, be careful.

agree maybe a great shift from usd to aud?

My h4 wave count and projection,,,,,

Now we have another "persisted trend before Big News" .
Big news : Tues non-farm payroll.

So lets guess what is the persisted trend now for friday and monday and tuesday afternoon?

Profit taking or sideways.
Further push into risk assets, although not impossible, would be crazy.

new high

bye bye shorters..............

AUD/USD Uptrend

1. Fundamental : tapering ease off, resulting in Asian and emerging markets upbeat
2. Fundamental : USD dollar seems as not safe currency, favours towards AUD
3. Fundamental : Seasonal behavior of end of Oct to be high
4. Fundamental : China market still growing, US market weak, Pro- Asian as emerging market
5. Fundamental : USD will try to keep low dollar value to attract more import/export trades
6. Fundamental : AUD as a stable economy rich in commodities
7. Technical : Correction upward cycle from 1.06 drop (jun 2013)

AUD/USD Downtrend:

1. Fundamental : BIG banks want to play out retail traders
2. Technical : USD rebounce from 8 month low
3. Technical : AUD/usd reached weekly pivot and near to monthly pivot

i think will be further push into risk assets - aud.usd up.

Shorters can become longers if they changed side.

0.9650 looks like pretty tough resistance though

.965 is barrier option related

USD dollar dropping like knife now

I think you should have a look at momentum, divergence and O/S indies.
It has dropped like a knife, but to say it is also dropping like a knife now is a bit over the top, unless you're looking at the M1 chart.
There is a whole confluence of technical support levels for the USD in this price level.
Sure we could get a nice price break out and go another 100 pips, but we need a good catalyst first. Even so, a breakout would cause even more severe divergence and would be a good opportunity to fade such a move.

Of course I could be dead wrong on this. I'm just interpreting what the charts are telling me.
If there is bullish potential here for the Aussie, before taking a trade, one must first wait for a breakout and re-test, or a significant correction and a failure to break support.
Till then, the best RR Ratio is on a short.

Little doubt we are going to meet up with those weekly ema's at 50 fib 1.97xx resistance and 1hr ABCD.

Stevens still wants a lower Aussie so could be a good place to sell and look for a near perfect bearish ABCD from the 1.0581 high to the 0.80 VERY, VERY strong support... (and huge mofo monthly range)

We are going to 0,9750 before corection. I dont know why some people are always short??

Daily chart is overbought at very high level.

AUD/USD is very interesting pair. AU jobless rate is still in very high level. We will see what RBA can do to lower AUD .

Looking for AB = CD

Fib Retracement 61.8
Fib Extension 161.8

Pls correct me if im wrong??

I don't believe this thing is going back to 92 let alone 88 let alone low 80's that some bears are praying for.

I think we may see slight pullback but just another opportunity to load long. Bears are turning to bulls and as I've always stated, things aren't that bad down under.
Furthermore, the farcical debt resolution and the "to come" tapering will not do much to slow down aussie. It's has been somewhat factored in but don't be suprised that official tapering is good for worldwide economies not just US. We may not see US dollar strength as predicted by many but rather a pause, slight pullback and continuation (especially for aussie)