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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,161
  • Oct 13, 2013 2:49am Oct 13, 2013 2:49am
Hi Binnie,

first time posting. just wanted to say that i love your charts. very easy to recognize the system.

i've been using it on and off and when i was patient it worked.

thanks for your work and maybe i could offer my bit about usd/jpy.

how do i upload the usd/jpy picture to show in the post, but not as an attachment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,162
  • Oct 13, 2013 10:31pm Oct 13, 2013 10:31pm
Quoting ssebby
Hi Binnie, first time posting. just wanted to say that i love your charts. very easy to recognize the system. i've been using it on and off and when i was patient it worked. thanks for your work and maybe i could offer my bit about usd/jpy. how do i upload the usd/jpy picture to show in the post, but not as an attachment. {image}
Thanks SSebby, Just trying to keep some interest going in here. Hopefully some of what I have been taught can be passed on to others.
Not sure what you mean about about uploading a picture to the post but not as an attachment.
You can PM me or email me if you like & I will help anyway I can. ( or post back here if you wish)
  • #26,163
  • Oct 15, 2013 12:58am Oct 15, 2013 12:58am
Hi All,

Just posting a screen shot to get some thoughts and to see where i should be concentrating on learning.

Is this a valid trade setup from my charts?

I am thinking you could trade long at least to previous days highs?

However I can get confused as the Daily closed as a shooting star so should we expect a retrace down which sort of invalidates my long trade...

Or i take the long trade and hope it hits the target first before moving down...

Ideas, suggestions etc....

The chart is EUR/USD 15/10 7am UK.. (dark and cold...why do people want come here???)
Attached Image
  • #26,164
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:07am Oct 15, 2013 1:07am
Well i took the trade just to see if my thinking is correct and to learn.

I am expecting a little move down first as usual at 7am UK... but hope to hit the target later this morning..

Any thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,165
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:02am Oct 15, 2013 8:02am
Epic failure..

I was motivated to post and trade by binnie "Just trying to keep some interest going in here"

(no blame intended at all..but reading your brilliant posts made me want to see more of them so i can learn more)

Now, here is the learning curve...where did i go wrong?

I was trading before leaving home for work so could not watch the charts so i did the fatal mistake of jumping in early.

1) I could have put a pending long order in above the closed green candle
2) wait for break of high / lows of the green candle
3) Got caught out by news release?

Any other ideas...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,166
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:30pm Oct 15, 2013 4:30pm
Hi Yaakruay - just my take on what you are asking


YES. You have walked your way through the reasons to take a trade. Mood is positive ( 89 )/ Price has bounced away from the 21 / Last few days has shown HH & HL's. In fact there is another PLUS here in that the close of the Signal Bar is above a strong recent Support/Resistance at 1.3560 . So you have given yourself good odds in your favour. All you needed was the trigger to confirm an entry - a TC on the Macd. IMHO, the Macd was never going to give up a Trend Continuation if you read what the last dozen or so bars is telling us - B B R R B B R B B R R B. Not really identifying a trend . You also entered before the Bullish Candle closed & I can understand this happens, but if you see the Macd bar, there is no obvious HH which I feel is needed to confirm a signal exists.





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  • #26,167
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:35pm Oct 15, 2013 4:35pm
@ Yaakruay
Sorry my friend, I was trying to set up a full reply to your posts and have accidently deleted everything I had written. I will start it again and post as soon as I get back from a meeting. Keep smiling buddy - you are on the right track
  • #26,168
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:50pm Oct 15, 2013 9:50pm
Hi Yaakruay,
I have attached a PDF reply to your questions and hope it may assist you in some way.


Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf YAAKRUAY Trade.pdf   362 KB | 459 downloads


I have also attached a screen shot of what I had placed on my Chart Watch just before going to bed last night. Strange how we each saw a totally different scenario. Neither is right or wrong - it is how we assess what our charts are telling us. In my case,I had identified several reasons why I thought the Euro might drop rather than rise.
-Price making lower Swing Highs since 3 Oct.
-The 21 & 89 ma's losing upward momentum
-I identified a possible H&S even though not at the recent market highs.
-The MACD was forming a lower high to complete a H&S also & this warned me that price might continue to fall a bit more.

Again, this is only my take on things and each of us is different. Even if the Macd had given a very strong close bove the previous Red bar, I would still have been really reluctant to enter there because I could not agree to there being a bullish trending rise. What I mean by that is the chopping & changing macd colours as I described in post above.

Let me know if I can help further but from your posts & charts, you seem to have the basics of the RYTHYM. Don't forget - not every trade will be a winner but just do your best to make sure the ones you enter are by YOUR rules and if that is the case, you will know from your own testing that your winners will exceed the losers.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,169
  • Oct 15, 2013 10:29pm Oct 15, 2013 10:29pm
My Market Watch for tonite:

The Aussie is my main interest tonite.
Anyone have an opinion ? Perhaps another pair ??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_Chart_Watch_16_Oct.png Size: 75 KB


  • #26,170
  • Oct 16, 2013 1:53pm Oct 16, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting binnie
My Market Watch for tonite: The Aussie is my main interest tonite. Anyone have an opinion ? Perhaps another pair ?? {image}
If you are waiting for a retrace are you happy for 1 large fast bear candle down to the 21 or would this make you wonder about taking the long trade.

Do you like your retraces to be a slow meander with smallish candles...?

Ps..Thank you very much for the time and effort of going through my charts/posts and creating that PDF...
It means a lot when someone takes time to help...big thanks...

a TC on the Macd. IMHO, the Macd was never going to give up a Trend Continuation if you read what the last dozen or so bars is telling us - B B R R B B R B B R R B. Not really identifying a trend .

I cannot figure out for the life of me what BBRRR is...i know you are referring to the macd but what is a B or R?
  • #26,171
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:01pm Oct 16, 2013 3:01pm
Quoting yaakruay
{quote} If you are waiting for a retrace are you happy for 1 large fast bear candle down to the 21 or would this make you wonder about taking the long trade. Do you like your retraces to be a slow meander with smallish candles...?

Makes no difference to my Trade Plan. The fact is that regardless of how strong that Bear Candle is back to the 21 ( or any Major S/R) , if the next close is a bullish candle, the odds are good that the Macd will give me a TC as my confirmation.


Ps..Thank you very much for the time and effort of going through...
I thought that this one might confuse the issue a bit - apologies. What I mean here is that if you look at my chart for instance, I use Blue & Red for my Macd bars. All this says is that my bars are Blue Blue Red Red etc etc. Yours are Green & Red so this would read G G R R G G etc etc. Just my way of explaining that the Macd is chopping around all over the place and it refuses to confirm a trend is in place. My charts are slightly different to yours ( Pepperstone NY Close) but price action is pretty similar.

Look forward to your posts mate - I see that the US Congress has approved funding until all this B/....Sh...t starts again in Feb



Cheers for now.
B.
  • #26,172
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:25pm Oct 16, 2013 3:25pm
AUSSIE UPDATE 17 OCT:

I am still looking at a possible Long entry in just under an hour. PA is chugging along nicely and has again tagged the 8 ma. I am looking at a run to the BRN 0.9600 with a S/L just below the 21. Trade value of approx 50 pips and a 1:1 RR . Will try to get to B/E + a few if it goes to +20.
I do have a Plan B here as well - the 8ma is breaking away from the 21 so sooner or later it will try to return. Should I see this change starting, I will look for a candle close below the 8 & if there is a corresponding rollover on the Macd, this could signal a H & S and a warning that Price MAY want to take a breather.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Any comments most welcome.
BTW - don't forget this is a Sim Trade only. Markets are too jittery still to risk Cash. Major Red News later tonite too - USA Unemployment and Manufacturing. Will try to be out of here before these come
  • #26,173
  • Edited Oct 17, 2013 5:38am Oct 16, 2013 4:15pm | Edited Oct 17, 2013 5:38am
hi, here is something about the GBPUSD.
comments welcome,

EDIT: din't make a TC, no trade.
Yvon
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TC if any.pdf   559 KB | 494 downloads
Yvon
  • #26,174
  • Oct 16, 2013 5:19pm Oct 16, 2013 5:19pm
Quoting trademin
hi, here is something about the GBPUSD. comments welcome, Yvon {image}
Hi Yvon,
Nicely drawn & explained PDF on the Pound.
I am trying hard to grasp the H&S concept and hope I am making progress towards what you have been trying to show us with this pattern as an aid to help with our H4 Method. Following your set up, I have modified mine slightly to provide that left hand Swing High as being the Left Shoulder & this allows the Right Shoulder to be a lower high. My neckline now provides a point where S & R is also established. The distance from the Neckline to the Highest point of the Head is around 270pips. Measuring from the TC break of the neckline, that same distance of 270pips would give a possible run down to around the 1.5750 level..
Is this how you do your caculations?

I see a solid charge down but went back into consolidation for a few days before returning to test that previous Neckline Support as new Resistance. Perhaps a return to the 21 now could give the kickstart needed to head South.

Happy Pipping my friend. Always great to learn from you.
B.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,175
  • Edited 9:25pm Oct 16, 2013 5:21pm | Edited 9:25pm
Quoting binnie
Hi Yaakruay, I have attached a PDF reply to your questions and hope it may assist you in some way. {image} I have also attached a screen shot of what I had placed on my Chart Watch just before going to bed last night. Strange how we each saw a totally different scenario. Neither is right or wrong - it is how we assess what our charts are telling us. In my case,I had identified several reasons why I thought the Euro might drop rather than rise. -Price making lower Swing Highs since 3 Oct. -The 21 & 89 ma's losing upward momentum -I identified a possible...
hi Binnie,
I just saw that you show a Head and Shoulder formation!
Yvon
  • #26,176
  • Oct 16, 2013 6:10pm Oct 16, 2013 6:10pm
Quoting binnie
{quote} Hi Yvon, Nicely drawn & explained PDF on the Pound. I am trying hard to grasp the H&S concept and hope I am making progress towards what you have been trying to show us with this pattern as an aid to help with our H4 Method. Following your set up, I have modified mine slightly to provide that left hand Swing High as being the Left Shoulder & this allows the Right Shoulder to be a lower high. My neckline now provides a point where S & R is also established. The distance from the Neckline to the Highest point of the Head is around 270pips....
hi Binnie,
"Following your set up, I have modified mine slightly to provide that left hand Swing High as being the Left Shoulder & this allows the Right Shoulder to be a lower high. "

- sometime they are(shoulders) equals, having aprox the same hight...But what will give the real situation concerning momemtum is the very big difference expressed by the macd!
I don't want to confuse anyone here by saying that but it means a weakness in peoples involvement, in this chart RT (floating above zero)are for the left shoulder and the TC is for the right shoulder. (sinking below zero) showing weakness BEFORE the TC is made on the right shoulder.---if you draw a line joining the 2 shoulders on the macd I can see the weakness in there.(right shoulder expressed by the macd-TC)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hs projection.png Size: 529 KB
Yvon
  • #26,177
  • Oct 17, 2013 4:06am Oct 17, 2013 4:06am
Aussie now closed:

Trade successful - out with +40 as per plan and MM. Moved stop to +21 to make sure I did not give any back.
Bedtime now(10pm) which is also candle close on my charts. The BRN 0.9600 will be an interesting Resistance level.
Red News ( Unemployment Claims) in 3 &1/2 hours with manufacturing news 90 mins later.
Good to have this one all bagged up before bed

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_Progressing_to_target_17_Oct.png Size: 55 KB


Start again tomorrow
Happy trading folks
B.
  • #26,178
  • Oct 17, 2013 5:39am Oct 17, 2013 5:39am
Quoting binnie
Aussie now closed: Trade successful - out with +40 as per plan and MM. Moved stop to +21 to make sure I did not give any back. Bedtime now(10pm) which is also candle close on my charts. The BRN 0.9600 will be an interesting Resistance level. Red News ( Unemployment Claims) in 3 &1/2 hours with manufacturing news 90 mins later. Good to have this one all bagged up before bed {image} Start again tomorrow Happy trading folks B.

Congrat nice trade!, well explained,
have a nice sleep!
Yvon
  • #26,179
  • Oct 17, 2013 3:54pm Oct 17, 2013 3:54pm
CHART OF INTEREST

What will the Euro do ?

I know its nearing Friday and I would not consider entry this close to the weekend but with all this news - feulled action I thought it might be fun to throw a couple of our ideas in the pot to see how other members see market position .

The pair that sticks out for me would be the Euro. Price is heading to the 2013 High and this offers a choice of scenarios. The one I like is the Counter Trend option but there are still a couple that can be considered .

*Price can turn back now towards the 8ma as it is getting a fair way from it . Being a serious Bullish Mood , I would wait for a pull back to the 8 or better still, between the 8 & the 21 and then resume towards that High again - this cold be confirmed by a nice TC on the Macd.

*Another possibility might be that Price continues its hunt & sets a new High - then a trace back to that new high as Support , then move away again - also creating a confirmation of a trigger with a nice TC .

Just my ideas guys - please share your thoughts on any Currency - it helps keep our thread alive & fun while we see out these painful couple of weeks.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #26,180
  • Oct 17, 2013 4:16pm Oct 17, 2013 4:16pm
ONE MORE TO PONDER

I like this Yen formation too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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