Sultans of Swing | Page 11 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

5/6 candle swing low swing high Indicator 5 replies

Swing high / Swing low indictator+alert? 20 replies

Swing highs and swing lows 3 replies

Looking for a swing high/swing low indicator 2 replies

swing high/swing low indicator and volume tic history 13 replies

Attachments: Sultans of Swing
Exit Attachments

Sultans of Swing

  • #201
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:43am Oct 16, 2013 4:43am
Quoting theDHT
Ozzie Yen followup from here This pair is another excellent barometer of risk appetite For those who are more risk averse, maybe they want to wait for a qualification of the breakout on the daily TF, but it would (should) force you to take a smaller position when you do get in... to me the H4 breakout looks good enough to trade... the price action on this pair during the USGOV soap opera is very revealing IMO... I have added to my existing position on the break, my net risk...

so i chickened out of my holding....

closed out the position, for a total of 120+30 pips and my position sheet is blank at the moment

feels good to be able to have "observer status" rather than "participant status" during this embarrassing nonsense by our elected representatives

i still think a big risk on opportunity is setting up... I dont wanna get shaken out or stressed out while i wait for it...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #202
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:57am Oct 16, 2013 4:57am
Quoting venzen
{quote} words of wisdom... i don't know what to say to match you... "time flies like an arrow but fruit flies like a banana" thanks PT, i gedit: don't over-analyze... all will be revealed in good time!
Funny and absolutely
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #203
  • Oct 16, 2013 10:44am Oct 16, 2013 10:44am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} so i chickened out of my holding.... closed out the position, for a total of 120+30 pips and my position sheet is blank at the moment feels good to be able to have "observer status" rather than "participant status" during this embarrassing nonsense by our elected representatives i still think a big risk on opportunity is setting up... I dont wanna get shaken out or stressed out while i wait for it...

observer seat is definitely better than participant hot-seat - there is just too much noise in the media and market reactions. Good scalpable moves, but with no technical warning - by the time I spot them and verify the technicals - its too late to make a confident entry!

Like your idea of waiting it out - there will be plenty of opportunities - especially when the unreleased US data dump happens
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #204
  • Oct 16, 2013 12:02pm Oct 16, 2013 12:02pm
Looks like the republicrats have temporarily ended the shutdown - which should see investors gradually turn to equities again and risk, which has been suppressed, turned back on. Added a little to my e/j long, am also long gbp on long term fundamentals.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #205
  • Oct 17, 2013 5:14am Oct 17, 2013 5:14am
Quoting numbnuts
Looks like the republicrats have temporarily ended the shutdown - which should see investors gradually turn to equities again and risk, which has been suppressed, turned back on. Added a little to my e/j long, am also long gbp on long term fundamentals.

hiya numbnuts,

interesting PA since the Asian session...

Would like to see if the US session changes the state of equities (Dow/S&P) because they're looking real limp and with massive MACD/RSI divergence on the current wave up. Perhaps a strong move can break those divergences, else it might turn into Stock-maggedon. Tomorrow being a full moon I think equities have a chance of rallying. While on the topic of the moon and tides - my tea leaves this morning...

Good luck today!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #206
  • Oct 17, 2013 6:29am Oct 17, 2013 6:29am
upside in Gold seems to have waned and there's a right shoulder forming... perhaps a trip down to 1237 ?

that could complete the ABCDE triangle from mid-August.

if 1335 is visited in the next few sessions then upside might prevail
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #207
  • Oct 17, 2013 7:46am Oct 17, 2013 7:46am
question marks hang over Gold:

Attached Image
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #208
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:19am Oct 17, 2013 8:19am
Attention Shifts from US Fiscal Policy to Monetary, Pushes Dollar Lower
http://www.marctomarket.com/2013/10/attention-shifts-from-us-fiscal-policy.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #209
  • Oct 17, 2013 11:57am Oct 17, 2013 11:57am
Interesting 3-way correlation pattern here. SPX and gold usually fade each other - if one moves up, the other usually moves down. Occasionally they move together for a day. When this happens, USD always makes a big move in the opposite direction - obviously because they are both valued against USD.

Today, investors are buying both gold AND equities so USD takes a big tumble. But this tumble wont last forever - this situation almost never lasts more than a day, and certainly no more than two days. Soon investors will 'catch up' and return to their typical investment cycles of sometimes favoring gold, sometimes equities. When this happens USD's decline will slow, and either SPX or gold will halt its rally and turn downward.

So which will it be? If you were an investment manager right now and you had to choose equities or gold to channel more of your clients funds into for the next few days, which way would you go? Since the markets seemed to be eagerly awaiting the outcome of this weeks political events and they turned out risk positive, equities are definitely the way to go. This means that as soon as USD's current fall subsides, gold will again start falling. If this is the case, golds current high level would be an ideal place to go short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: im1810.png Size: 41 KB
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #210
  • Oct 17, 2013 12:25pm Oct 17, 2013 12:25pm
Quoting numbnuts
Interesting 3-way correlation pattern here. SPX and gold usually fade each other - if one moves up, the other usually moves down. Occasionally they move together for a day. When this happens, USD always makes a big move in the opposite direction - obviously because they are both valued against USD. Today, investors are buying both gold AND equities so USD takes a big tumble. But this tumble wont last forever - this situation almost never lasts more than a day, and certainly no more than two days. Soon investors will 'catch up' and return to their...
For the last 8 weeks, gold has been on a steady channeled decline and in the 4 weeks prior to this one has been flipping between the 1320 pivot while staying inside the channel. However, now that the channel resistance has been breached (even though 1320 seems to be holding (today), I'm not so sure I can count on much further downside until at least one more visit north of the 1320 pivot into the strong supply zone between 1340 and 1350.

Based on that, I wonder if this correlation we saw today will continue into tonight and tomorrow.

It is quite clear now that the Fed will keep the pedal to the metal on QE4EVA at least until their economic forecasts meet their criteria. Therefore I fully expect equities to keep rallying... possibly to around 1770. Question is do we get another correction before that?

Here's my H4 gold chart with indicated channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdh4.png Size: 68 KB


ADD: By the way... The US Dollar looks like it's about to fall off the ledge. It is currently in oversold territory and is showing a bullish divergence, but that can be relieved with some sideways action.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #211
  • Oct 17, 2013 1:09pm Oct 17, 2013 1:09pm
Short EUR/USD 1.3678
Reason for short:
1. Completion of EW wave 5.
2. Major bearish divergence on Daily chart (MacD and RSX).
3. Supply zone drawn off the 2013 1.3710 rejection candle.
4. Rising upper trend line resistance.

First target at 1.3500
Second target at 1.3340
SL at 1.3720

EURUSDCALL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #212
  • Edited 11:27pm Oct 17, 2013 9:14pm | Edited 11:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Short EUR/USD 1.3678 Reason for short: 1. Completion of EW wave 5. 2. Major bearish divergence on Daily chart (MacD and RSX). 3. Supply zone drawn off the 2013 1.3710 rejection candle. 4. Rising upper trend line resistance. First target at 1.3500 Second target at 1.3340 SL at 1.3720 EURUSDCALL
That's a bold call. EUR/USD is headed for a confluence of resistance from a rising upper trendline and 2013 high @ 1.3710. For that reason I wouldn't dream of buying it, but to sell it? It is still in an uptrend, it is just at the top of its channel right now. And investment capital is clearly flowing out of USD as illustrated in my last post. The Fed and US government have both opened the tap on yield-seeking investments, (bearish USD) and euro data from the last two weeks has generally been mixed/positive. Draghi's recent speeches have been carrying some definite hawkish undertones. Since the fundamentals seem to be clashing with the technicals on this pair, I wont be trading it for a while.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1810.png Size: 45 KB
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #213
  • Oct 17, 2013 11:32pm Oct 17, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} That's a bold call. EUR/USD is headed for a confluence of resistance from a rising upper trendline and 2013 high @ 1.3710. For that reason I wouldn't dream of buying it, but to sell it? It is still in an uptrend, it is just at the top of its channel right now. And investment capital is clearly flowing out of USD as illustrated in my last post. The Fed and US government have both opened the tap on yield-seeking investments, (bearish USD) and euro data from the last two weeks has generally been mixed/positive. Draghi's recent speeches have...
What can I say? I'm bold I guess.
A short here gives me the best risk/reward ratio imaginable.
If 3710 resistance gets taken out, then I'm down 42 pips when I get stopped at 3720
If 3710 holds and reverses, I'm in the money at least 170 pips
What cannot go up, must come down.
Who knows? At some point some surprise news could hit the wires that could reverse this pair instantly. It's happened before, so why not now. The techs say "sell"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #214
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:43am Oct 20, 2013 8:43am
PipTrapper & NumbNutz,

Enjoying the conversation but cannot really contribute much today. Sometimes it's better to just listen and not talk, i guess.

I'm really focussing on chart technicals for the past few weeks and I feel myself getting better acquainted with RSI as it relates to PA at different TFs. Even so, while looking beyond Gold today to analyze some other pairs, I must say the technicals are not clear. Seems like some major changes are about to occur... VIX low, QE ongoing, complacency now seemingly a market normal... I see Marc Chandler points out that a lot of pairs are at lows as far as volatility is concerned... all harbingers of a game changer.

PT, from an RSI analysis of EurUsd today, I see the 5th wave up is almost complete and the reversal should be long and strong. My guestimate was 1.31 but then my targets tend to be too extreme. Your 1.35 - a very likely target.

Numbnuts, thanks for the charts showing XAU / S&P/ DXY correlation. Very interesting and a great picture to study when presented like that.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #215
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:04am Oct 20, 2013 9:04am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} That's a bold call. EUR/USD is headed for a confluence of resistance from a rising upper trendline and 2013 high @ 1.3710. For that reason I wouldn't dream of buying it, but to sell it? It is still in an uptrend, it is just at the top of its channel right now. And investment capital is clearly flowing out of USD as illustrated in my last post. The Fed and US government have both opened the tap on yield-seeking investments, (bearish USD) and euro data from the last two weeks has generally been mixed/positive. Draghi's recent speeches have been carrying some definite hawkish undertones. Since the fundamentals seem to be clashing with the technicals on this pair, I wont be trading it for a while. {image}
Quoting venzen
PipTrapper & NumbNutz, Enjoying the conversation but cannot really contribute much today. Sometimes it's better to just listen and not talk, i guess. I'm really focussing on chart technicals for the past few weeks and I feel myself getting better acquainted with RSI as it relates to PA at different TFs. Even so, while looking beyond Gold today to analyze some other pairs, I must say the technicals are not clear. Seems like some major changes are about to occur... VIX low, QE ongoing, complacency now seemingly a market normal... I see Marc Chandler...
Venzen and Numbnuts,

I though you might be interested in the HSBC view on the current market trend drivers. In a nutshell, their view is that RoRo for the most part is diminished and instead is being replaced with the Carry Trade of Pre 2008 (For G10) and the Balance of Payments paradigm (For EM).
I found the analysis very interesting and eye opening. I'm not a big fan of HSBC's projections, but I think their view on market paradigms is bang on.

Here it is. Enjoy.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf currency_outlook_q42013.pdf   2.7 MB | 398 downloads
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #216
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:10am Oct 20, 2013 9:10am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} For the last 8 weeks, gold has been on a steady channeled decline and in the 4 weeks prior to this one has been flipping between the 1320 pivot while staying inside the channel. However, now that the channel resistance has been breached (even though 1320 seems to be holding (today), I'm not so sure I can count on much further downside until at least one more visit north of the 1320 pivot into the strong supply zone between 1340 and 1350. Based on that, I wonder if this correlation we saw today will continue into tonight and tomorrow. It...

From my count I anticipate one more wave up which would be wave 5. This would hit the monthly pivot at 1,345, touch the rising TL as well as put the necessary diversion in MACD and RSI for a reversal. However, before the 5th wave can happen, RSI and Stochastics on all TFs below H1 indicate a wave 4 down. The obvious target would be 1,305 - the end of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. That is also in the vicinity of the upper TL drawn along the LHs of the decline, as well as the 50% Fib of the current wave up. Once wave 4 down has printed we can expect a 5th wave up - extended beyond 1,345 or not.

In red, an alternate count which sees continuation of the downdraft since August. These paths for PA are plausible but improbable IMO, since a glance at PA as it behaves toward the lower TL of the decline shows the strong buy demand at those levels. The zigzagging nature of PA and the many triangles (and repeated failed H&S setups) in this decline are my reasons for believing it was a downward correction. Nonetheless, the red count is shown until proven invalid.

http://ubuntuone.com/5F7sDF2hzLWZtGWoyKzHYq
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #217
  • Edited 9:53am Oct 20, 2013 9:19am | Edited 9:53am
Quoting venzen
{quote} From my count I anticipate one more wave up which would be wave 5. This would hit the monthly pivot at 1,345, touch the rising TL as well as put the necessary diversion in MACD and RSI for a reversal. However, before the 5th wave can happen, RSI and Stochastics on all TFs below H1 indicate a wave 4 down. The obvious target would be 1,305 - the end of the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. That is also in the vicinity of the upper TL drawn along the LHs of the decline, as well as the 50% Fib of the current wave up. Once wave 4 down has...
Nice analysis... supports my view also. Again, with so much BS from DC, the Fed (and other CBs), the ongoing fudged data from China and the house of cards in the emerging markets, it won't take much to see some panic set in again. So, in my opinion, regardless of our views, this sucker (gold) which has acted as a barometer for risk sentiment for the last few years, could fly either way.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #218
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:48pm Oct 20, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {quote} Venzen and Numbnuts, I though you might be interested in the HSBC view on the current market trend drivers. In a nutshell, their view is that RoRo for the most part is diminished and instead is being replaced with the Carry Trade of Pre 2008 (For G10) and the Balance of Payments paradigm (For EM). I found the analysis very interesting and eye opening. I'm not a big fan of HSBC's projections, but I think their view on market paradigms is bang on. Here it is. Enjoy. {image}

Just about halfway through the document now and stopping to grab some coffee. Excellent reading and insightful analysis! The notion that there are multiple simultaneous models driving FX behaviour explains a lot about what we have been seeing. Thanks for posting, PT!
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #219
  • Edited 10:16pm Oct 20, 2013 9:45pm | Edited 10:16pm
HSBC confirms the forecast for EurJpy to come off its highs in a meaningful way. They have the cross at 129 by year-end and 117 by the end of next year. These levels fit an EW analysis, but the time window is IMO too generous. The fact that EJ will be either 1) retracing an ending diagonal or 2) coming down in a C wave, implies swift downside action. I haven't done a Fib time analysis, but I guess, proportionally, 3-6 months to 117 is plausible.

The force of decline will be multiplied if both UJ (Bucket B - Former Safehaven turned locally driven currency) as well as EU (Bucket A - Carry Candidate) decline simultaneously. This "simultaneous decline" dynamic occurs when the driver is not the USD but the second currency in each major pair: i.e. Euro and Yen. This dynamic also has the interesting effect whereby the cross's PA "ratchets" - a rise in one or the other major pair does not translate to a rise in the cross (EJ). Very favourable for trading while it lasts. I can see such a scenario happen as QE expectations grow, thereby weakening the EU (by rate differential) and as the hyperbolic expectations (and effects) of Abenomics come down to earth, slowly strengthening a massively undervalued JPY (and dragging UJ down).

Of course, the outcome of inevitable tapering is USD positive, so the EJ decline might happen on the back of a stable UJ (as forecast by HSBC) but a rapidly declining EurUsd.

It's a matter of waiting for the objective conditions to materialise and for EJ to confirm this by PA exhibiting a 5wave decline through the lower TL. Getting in on this too early is not a mistake I am going to make again, so complete patience while looking out for the signs of confirmation and the entry points with least risk.

EJ H4 (not current and green PA path invalidated)

http://ubuntuone.com/764nIS3XWMGGnm0vRKOj0e
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #220
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:12pm Oct 20, 2013 10:12pm
Here's a song Amy Winehouse wrote for all the Euro bears!

Inserted Video
cryptocurrency everytime
1 trader viewing now