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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #128,081
  • Oct 16, 2013 9:24am Oct 16, 2013 9:24am
Quoting Darkst
Hello Guys. What do you think about silver pin bar? PB, TL, fibs and double bottom. Cherrs. Darkst {image}
Nothing special. Space between touches of the TL is too big, so I wouldnt rely on it much. And this PB has absolutely no space to run.
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #128,082
  • Oct 16, 2013 9:54am Oct 16, 2013 9:54am
Pound shows intereting movements on different pairs. Lets see how the day closes.
If not up, then down, otherwise sideways :-)
  • #128,083
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:05pm Oct 16, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey P, Yes adopting a picky attitude can take time and a LOT of adjustment. It is rewarding in the sense that I don't know of any other means to achieving a considerable degree of consistency with your performance as well as gain confidence. You will still be making mistakes and taking losses, but being conservative ensures you don't blow up unnecessarily. A loss hurts. A loss that you can go back to in hindsight and despite the unfavorable result cannot find anything wrong with your analysis is one that is digestible. Moving along and being...

I happened to look into this today as I got stuck with family matters. I think it is a challenge to wait a long time for good setups as few of them occur on the Daily or Weekly charts. So one has to basically wait for those setups. But being new to this kind of approach how do we select near perfect setups or how do we wait without taking any trade for long. We learn something only when we err. And from those errors we know what is going wrong. But we should take some trades based on our best judgement and learn so I thought of keep the option of being open to 4hr in the demo setup.

See I have followed a trend trading method earlier and this method focused on 5 min , 1hr and Daily charts. I have quite a bit of practice on these charts but the effort has not succeeded in the sense that I could not increase my demo account. I could just break even before paying the broker cost. And then after I came across James 16 and couple other price action strategies realized that PA strategies support and resistance to be the core of trading. This is where buyers and sellers congregate and with some support from PA we may guess with good probability that the market can go in a certain direction. Also we have considerations like space, the FTA and other confluences to increase the probability of the trade. Theoretically the PA approach seems to be good but I will really believe in this when I could increase my demo account in practice trading.

I do agree with you on trading losses. The losses are inevitable in this business even after we have followed the method very closely. But our confidence in our approach should be such that we dont keep changing our method or strategy based on some trade losses.

And when I have finally given up on trend trading I happened to read something interesting on this approach which can give one or two good trades in a month. One gentleman after years of study has found one simple thing with trending markets. He has found that Either the market has to go up (in a bullish trend) or it has to go down (in a bearish trend) ......now dont jump in and shout " what is so creative about this" .....wait let me finish on this one.....he further stated that the market can change direction only two times....at the top in a bullish trend and at bottom on a bearish trend. So you will have only two losing trades (to be precise one for bearish and one for bullish).....once you mentally accept two losing trades you can milk the market as long as the trend lasts.......hope now you are getting the drift....I think this is a great insight which gives me one or two good trades a month in trending markets.

I am not sure if you found this useful.
  • #128,084
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:16pm Oct 16, 2013 3:16pm
Hey guys,

here is a quick simple trade I took on the daily. Im currently at BE with around 5% ish floating. Just a simple TT short off the clear PPZ. I will leave my stop at BE and just see what happens. I know this isnt the best way of managing a trade but there is a difference between being at BE and letting a trade go and trying to do the same when your stops are not at BE and hoping that a trade goes in our direction.

Ive also noticed that my trading has evolved ever so slightly. Its still J16/Mike but the more I trade the more I start to understand how price moves and where price is likely to go. I remember Mike mentioning something about this in the PF a while back - everyone eventually has their own style of trading, no one can be exacly like James or Mike. Cant really explain it. I guess its just something that comes with screen time.

chart:

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Take care everyone
Dan
  • #128,085
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:33pm Oct 16, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting dan89
Hey guys, here is a quick simple trade I took on the daily. Im currently at BE with around 5% ish floating. Just a simple TT short off the clear PPZ. I will leave my stop at BE and just see what happens. I know this isnt the best way of managing a trade but there is a difference between being at BE and letting a trade go and trying to do the same when your stops are not at BE and hoping that a trade goes in our direction. Ive also noticed that my trading has evolved ever so slightly. Its still J16/Mike but the more I trade the more I start to understand...

I agree with you, there will be some variations in the way we apply this though we all using the same stuff like PA, confluence etc. Trading seems simple when someone explains a method but it takes a lot of practice to apply it successfully on charts. It seems simple but unless I can increase the money in the practice account or get the ability to take great setups....does not make my knowledge complete.

But thanks to this thread I could get a holistic view of trading based on PA. THere is some really good posts on this thread. Quite amazing.
  • #128,086
  • Oct 16, 2013 6:28pm Oct 16, 2013 6:28pm
Support and resistance + PA + HTF = less trading, less losses, growing account.
Support and resistance + PA + LTF = more trading, more losses, ? account

I am rereading the beginning of this thread (first 100 pages or so) when James was quite active. Somewhere around page 50 he makes a statement about the death of new traders is guaranteed when they start out trading lower time frames rather than higher time frames.

One can quite easily prove this to himself. Take any pair. Look at a weekly chart and identify PA as taught here. Notice without anything else not even S/R, that good PA often leads to "profitable" trades. Now add in s/r and well-recognized patterns and these PA candles become gold. Now move down to the daily, then the H4 and so on. It doesn't take long to notice that the further down the time frames you go the more PA signals you get but less are profitable.

I would rather take one good trade a month consistently that I know will work the majority of the time and increase my position size than make several mediocre trades and be afraid to increase my position size because I'm afraid of a loser.
  • #128,087
  • Oct 16, 2013 6:41pm Oct 16, 2013 6:41pm
It depends on your average R/R and hit rate. Even a low (ish) hit rate can be ok with good R/R and if you have an edge, then the more trades the better regardless of weather is comes through a high hit rate or bigger R/R. It is finding and perfecting that edge that is the tough part and 'newer' traders are not at a stage where they can both identify the A grade set ups and/or have the patience to wait for them.
  • #128,088
  • Oct 16, 2013 10:10pm Oct 16, 2013 10:10pm
Quoting andyhardwick
It depends on your average R/R and hit rate. Even a low (ish) hit rate can be ok with good R/R and if you have an edge, then the more trades the better regardless of weather is comes through a high hit rate or bigger R/R. It is finding and perfecting that edge that is the tough part and 'newer' traders are not at a stage where they can both identify the A grade set ups and/or have the patience to wait for them.

That is also my opinion. It is hard for newer traders to wait for one month to take one or two A grade trades. If I already used to place tens of trades in a week and suddenly this is a big mindset change. Also unless I practice and err a few times how do I recognize A trades...

But finally I think we should stick to what they are saying about trading HTF because they are saying from experience. Lots of time should be spent in analyzing the charts and screen time and we should resist the temptation to place a trade unless it is high probability. The critical thing is we need to get the confidence that we can increase the account. So far I have not been able to do that. I am a fairly intelligent guy and I am tripping all the time with this trading thing so want to follow the advice.

I dont give up so easily. Sometimes I wonder why I got into this. Seems like I am destined to get into all difficult things. It did not seem like this when I first started this. Once I get a break I should do well I suppose. Software engineering seems peanuts compared to this as that is all a predictable activity. At the same time I am passionate about trading. This situation is akin to someone who is in a love affair with very high odds of failure.
  • #128,089
  • Oct 16, 2013 11:07pm Oct 16, 2013 11:07pm
Quoting andyhardwick
It depends on your average R/R and hit rate. Even a low (ish) hit rate can be ok with good R/R and if you have an edge, then the more trades the better regardless of weather is comes through a high hit rate or bigger R/R. It is finding and perfecting that edge that is the tough part and 'newer' traders are not at a stage where they can both identify the A grade set ups and/or have the patience to wait for them.

Senior i guess i will drift to you side more. no TF is better its all depends on traders personality and knowledge. A good illustration is Marty schwartz and Micheal Marcus or Ed Seykota. If you consider this set of very fine traders its obvious, no time frame is more profitable. But i will partially agree with Winston Reed 'Support and resistance + PA + HTF = less trading, less losses, growing account'. considering how Marty Schwartz couldn't be as successful as is counterpart like Goerge Soros, Paul Tudor Jones, Bruce Kovner. e.t.c. because of the sculping nature of is method (Lower TF) resulting into higher stress level for him to manage huger funds which eventually almost stopped him from trading. He couldn't do like the others because of his method matched with his personally.


I think based on James16 method the more knowledge and trading fund you have the more you will tends to drift to the higher TF because its afford you lesser number of trades only to make adequate returns( R:R- no of win/loss considering number of trades made ). The problem with a Newbie is that he wants to learn, he wants to experience, feel the market, he doesn't have much trading fund, he wants to start making the profit now so he is learning with real money, he also has a job that takes much of is daily time and eventually has little for trading. You will only lengthen the time on your learning curve! You have to stick to the instruction listed by James on the first page of this thread because those rules were result of long term trading experience. If you really understand your self and you are sure you will not loose control of yourself then you can properly arrange the desires of a new trader i stated above giving learning the higher stake and not profiting because its follows once you know things you needed to know. Then be consistent with what ever you are doing it will come to you like a flash. I hope i am not wrong its just my little view of the whole thing.


Thanx Ghous for the insightful reply on my last post. i see Dan89 taking that trade also though his trade is much different from mine which i believe is still much on course considering my pattern though i am out now. Thanx



Jibson
Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #128,090
  • Oct 17, 2013 5:01am Oct 17, 2013 5:01am
Quoting Winston Reed
Support and resistance + PA + HTF = less trading, less losses, growing account. Support and resistance + PA + LTF = more trading, more losses, ? account I am rereading the beginning of this thread (first 100 pages or so) when James was quite active. Somewhere around page 50 he makes a statement about the death of new traders is guaranteed when they start out trading lower time frames rather than higher time frames. One can quite easily prove this to himself. Take any pair. Look at a weekly chart and identify PA as taught here. Notice without anything...
Great post.
  • #128,091
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:13am Oct 17, 2013 8:13am
I place little to no emphasis on RR or win rate. Just good trades. Not necessarily A+++ every time. I don't remember James nor Mike talking to much about RR. Just good trades, protecting capital by limiting risk, and taking profits and not letting winners become losers. I would not intentionally trade any method or system where I had to stress-out by letting trades run to satisfy some RR/win rate mathematical mumbo jumbo. If I had to make a 40% win rate profitable I would give up trading.
  • #128,092
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:26am Oct 17, 2013 8:26am
One of my biggest challenges is my time zone. I live in MST so many breakouts, like the one below occur when I'm sleeping. I hope some of you all caught this. EU and GU similar.
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  • #128,093
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:33am Oct 17, 2013 8:33am
Another one I missed. Just not near the charts when that BEOB formed at the top of the wedge.
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  • #128,094
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:37am Oct 17, 2013 8:37am
Keeping my eye on this one.
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  • #128,095
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:55am Oct 17, 2013 8:55am
Quoting Winston Reed
I place little to no emphasis on RR or win rate. Just good trades. Not necessarily A+++ every time. I don't remember James nor Mike talking to much about RR. Just good trades, protecting capital by limiting risk, and taking profits and not letting winners become losers. I would not intentionally trade any method or system where I had to stress-out by letting trades run to satisfy some RR/win rate mathematical mumbo jumbo. If I had to make a 40% win rate profitable I would give up trading.
Absolutely R:R is one of the most misunderstood trading topics in my opinon. It all sounds good on paper to keep it cut and dry and say I want XYZ but the reality for discretionary traders is often not that. There is also another topic that I talk about that I call dynamic risk to reward by where you are reducing your risk so your r:r is dynamic and this is a very big change to the overall topic of R:R


Good stuff Winston
MIke
  • #128,096
  • Oct 17, 2013 8:56am Oct 17, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Winston Reed
Keeping my eye on this one. {image}
very nice
  • #128,097
  • Edited 9:42am Oct 17, 2013 9:29am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting Winston Reed
One of my biggest challenges is my time zone. I live in MST so many breakouts, like the one below occur when I'm sleeping. I hope some of you all caught this. EU and GU similar. {image} {image}

Shot Two. got out for few pips to precisely stabilize my confidence level. i think is good to end each day with net profit. I hope to get to dat land when its comes to me in a flash. Am sorry hope its better now. Thanx


Jibson007
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Still trying to get to meet myself...
  • #128,098
  • Oct 17, 2013 9:36am Oct 17, 2013 9:36am
Quoting jibson007
{quote} Shot Two. got out for few pips to precisely stabilize my confidence level. i think is good to end each day with net profit. I hope to get to dat land when its comes to me in a flash. Jibson007 {image}{image}

Hey Jibson the images are too small for me to see. Can you increase the size? Nice trades from what I can see.
  • #128,099
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:26am Oct 17, 2013 10:26am
Quoting prasad99
{quote} I happened to look into this today as I got stuck with family matters. I think it is a challenge to wait a long time for good setups as few of them occur on the Daily or Weekly charts. So one has to basically wait for those setups. But being new to this kind of approach how do we select near perfect setups or how do we wait without taking any trade for long. We learn something only when we err. And from those errors we know what is going wrong. But we should take some trades based on our best judgement and learn so I thought of keep the...
Hey P,

Nothing wrong with keeping all your practice and tentative testing for the demo. If you can ensure that it doesn't distract you from your main objective initially which is to hunt for that consistency on the higher time frames, then surely some lower time frame demo involvement is only beneficial. Problem is, its quite hard to actually play this out. Its very natural to drift away when the higher time frames appear dry and the "intra day tentative testing" provides for some interesting short term results. Its near impossible to not want to shift the focus to those lower time frames. A key thing to understand here, is that the time you spend "not trading" during the dry periods is a very important skill to learn and master, because regardless of the time frame you eventually choose to trade on in the long term, being patient is always going to be your best weapon in the arsenal. By sticking to the higher time frames, you have LOADS of practice of being patient and learning to wait for your setups. So I'd only give you a heads up, if you know you can pull this off. Again, you could maybe try it, and upon spotting any symptoms of the drift, you could always take the corrective measures. Most of your learning in this business is going to have to be through trial and error, just the way we humans are.

Also I totally diagree with the qouted statements about trend trading:

Quote
once you mentally accept two losing trades you can milk the market as long as the trend lasts

This sounds good, theoretically, but the frequency of the markets turning in a choppy, sideways market is going to be many folds more than in a nice long trend. Trading with this mentality will eventually get you in trouble whenever the markets decide to go sideways (not a rare instance, we all know that)

g.
I believe . . .
  • #128,100
  • Oct 17, 2013 10:27am Oct 17, 2013 10:27am
Quoting dan89
Hey guys, here is a quick simple trade I took on the daily. Im currently at BE with around 5% ish floating. Just a simple TT short off the clear PPZ. I will leave my stop at BE and just see what happens. I know this isnt the best way of managing a trade but there is a difference between being at BE and letting a trade go and trying to do the same when your stops are not at BE and hoping that a trade goes in our direction. Ive also noticed that my trading has evolved ever so slightly. Its still J16/Mike but the more I trade the more I start to understand...
Very true Dan

g.
I believe . . .
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