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Sultans of Swing

  • #181
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:38am Oct 14, 2013 4:38am
Quoting numbnuts
{quote} I try not to trade while I'm high. I am long EUR/JPY and ready to add to the position quickly if peeps in Washington start acting like adults. People in here seem very bearish on gold, bullish SPX, which is very bullish EUR/JPY. If the US gummint sorts its shit out this week it is hard to imagine anything other than a major rally in equities. As you can see from the intermarket chart below when gold declines and/or SPX rallies, the sentiment is generally reflected in EUR/JPY. What concerns me now is the volatility on SPX. As you can see...
I agree the EUR/JPY has worked as a great risk barometer lately and I expect it to remain so for quite a while... as long as Kuroda keeps printing his country into oblivion. The BOJ's target for inflation is 2% and with an aging population, brain drain and what I see as an eventual end to the US Fed's QE4EAV, the JPY is in for lots more pummeling. However, not before one more dip, the nature of which is yet to be revealed. The ECB is already talking a lot about negative deposit rates or another LTRO and the market has shrugged that off for the most part, although that may be the reason the Euro (vs USD) has not yet rallied past 1.3700. I recall earlier this year how Brussels was screaming that the Euro was dangerously high when it was above current levels. Since then there have been what appears to be some green shoots in Europe, but those are very fragile at this point and I also see them as suspect due to all the suppressed debt concerns and lack of growth stimulus from the govs and ECB, so I don't think Brussels and Frankfurt want to risk nullifying the growth prospects by allowing the Euro to soar.

Anyway, the gist of my post is centered around my feeling that there is very limited upside to the EUR/JPY at this point... until such time as the global macro outlook is in a better position, a bit more risk sentiment creeps in and Kuroda decides to hit the print button once more. In the end, based on my view, it will be Yen weakness that will rally the EUR/JPY and not so much Euro Strength.

Of course anything is possible, so we'll just have to wait and see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #182
  • Edited 6:41am Oct 14, 2013 5:17am | Edited 6:41am
Ozzie
Who loves short shorts?!

Given the extremely high level of interest of the big money speculators in this pair (allegedly including Soros and Kovner), I think it is probably a good idea to keep it under close observation...

I think she is starting to give us a clue... its still early, and I prefer not to initiate trades before the US open on Mondays in general, and certainly no new trades on holidays, but this situation has the potential to evolve very quickly on headlines

Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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H4
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #183
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:08am Oct 14, 2013 8:08am
Quoting theDHT
Ozzie Who loves short shorts?! Given the extremely high level of interest of the big money speculators in this pair (allegedly including Soros and Kovner), I think it is probably a good idea to keep it under close observation... I think she is starting to give us a clue... its still early, and I prefer not to initiate trades before the US open on Mondays in general, and certainly no new trades on holidays, but this situation has the potential to evolve very quickly on headlines Daily {image} H4 {image}
I'm still looking for slightly higher prices before shorting.
First level I am eyeing is a double top (give or take 10 pips) signifying a truncated wave 5 of C of 4
Second possibility is a successful wave 5 of c of 4 around 9570/80

Then, Crash Bang Boom!!!

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #184
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:46am Oct 14, 2013 8:46am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm still looking for slightly higher prices before shorting. First level I am eyeing is a double top (give or take 10 pips) signifying a truncated wave 5 of C of 4 Second possibility is a successful wave 5 of c of 4 around 9570/80 Then, Crash Bang Boom!!! {image}
Agreed, my preference is also to see more upside in the shorter term
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #185
  • Oct 14, 2013 11:26am Oct 14, 2013 11:26am
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Agreed, my preference is also to see more upside in the shorter term
First short of my bearish position at 0.9499
Will add more on every rally above or below current levels.
Ultimate target is sub 8800
No SL

A/U H4
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #186
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:42pm Oct 14, 2013 4:42pm
Ozzie Yen

followup from here

This pair is another excellent barometer of risk appetite
For those who are more risk averse, maybe they want to wait for a qualification of the breakout on the daily TF, but it would (should) force you to take a smaller position when you do get in... to me the H4 breakout looks good enough to trade...

the price action on this pair during the USGOV soap opera is very revealing IMO...

I have added to my existing position on the break, my net risk exposure (on this pair) is zero in the event that it goes bad; the position i am holding from last week would cover the loss of the new one (stops adjusted accordingly)... double your pleasure double your fun! :nerd:

good luck!

Daily
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H4
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90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #187
  • Oct 14, 2013 4:56pm Oct 14, 2013 4:56pm
Hedge Fund Chart Guru Tom DeMark Sees Dark Days Ahead - Bloomberg
http://www.businessweek.com/articles...ark-days-ahead

"...His Dow Jones Index chart covering the period from May 2012 to the present seems to be tracking, almost precisely, the months leading up to the 1929 stock market crash..."

http://images.bwbx.io/cms/2013-10-14..._630inline.jpg
(the chart image is copied from the article above)

observation: based on this chart, looks like we are about 6 months out...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #188
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:50am Oct 15, 2013 2:50am
Oh my Buddha!

Gold is dropping like the car (from Jurassic Park ) crashing down through the branches in stops and starts. Doing it in clear impulse waves - beautiful pictures on 10sec TF!

Not sure if this downdraft is going to extend - but most likely an extended 5th.

So far I'm watching 1239 and 1227 for reaction.

RSI and MACD divergence is so advanced my bungalow is rattling!

Kirk: "Take us to warp speed, Scotty".
Scotty: "I'm giving her all I got Cap'n. She cannay go any faster! It's against the Laws of Physics!"
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #189
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:08am Oct 15, 2013 3:08am
Quoting venzen
Oh my Buddha! Gold is dropping like the car (from Jurassic Park ) crashing down through the branches in stops and starts. Doing it in clear impulse waves - beautiful pictures on 10sec TF! Not sure if this downdraft is going to extend - but most likely an extended 5th. So far I'm watching 1239 and 1227 for reaction. RSI and MACD divergence is so advanced my bungalow is rattling! Kirk: "Take us to warp speed, Scotty". Scotty: "I'm giving her all I got Cap'n. She cannay go any faster! It's against the Laws of Physics!"


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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #190
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:25am Oct 15, 2013 3:25am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {image}



Hi PT! Blast from the past - thanks for that!

I take it you're a participant in today's EurUsd downtrend?
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #191
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:33am Oct 15, 2013 3:33am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Hi PT! Blast from the past - thanks for that! I take it you're a participant in today's EurUsd downtrend?
Yep. I think I triggered it
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #192
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:27am Oct 15, 2013 9:27am
Sultans,

check out this post:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...22#post7027622

i watched this member get to grips with TDM over the past few days and then on his first chart (i watched it develop) he get's a heads-up for the drop in Gold - a few hundred pips out - but damn near enough anyway and with a good TL signal.

amazing.

BTW, DHT, I read your post at the XAU thread... think it motivated a few people because TDM has been the discussion topic all weekend and yesterday. I had not started learning it as intended - I started building a spreadsheet last Friday - as a means of quickly sizing, ranging and mapping out scaled entries. Got totally sucked in over the weekend and didn't even stop to scratch my nuts. Great outcome and well worth it. Next weekend: TDM so i can comprehend your charts and entry signal language.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #193
  • Oct 15, 2013 11:32am Oct 15, 2013 11:32am
Gold struck a low of 1251 today - a supply level that's been untouched since the June advance began. On bouncing, PA did not take any of the usual exits to resume downtrend but is now making successive advances with shallow retracements inbetween.

I reckon the market is officially "worried". Washington might quit bickering later in the week but for now it seems the risk-off is "on".
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #194
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:02pm Oct 15, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting venzen
Gold struck a low of 1251 today - a supply level that's been untouched since the June advance began. On bouncing, PA did not take any of the usual exits to resume downtrend but is now making successive advances with shallow retracements inbetween. I reckon the market is officially "worried". Washington might quit bickering later in the week but for now it seems the risk-off is "on".
or maybe the "risk-on" is off
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #195
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:50pm Oct 15, 2013 1:50pm
Fitch places US credit rating on negative watch. Maintains AAA rating for now. Debt limit concerns cited as reasons. DC clowns take notice.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #196
  • Oct 15, 2013 7:48pm Oct 15, 2013 7:48pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} or maybe the "risk-on" is off {image}

very good!

PT, please cast an EW eye on the Gold chart. Is that wave up not a textbook impulse (with a 3-3-5 correction A-B-C) ? If that is an impulse, then the implications are:

1) the downtrend of the past 2 months was a correction
2) over-all trend is up and downside from 2011 top completed in June.
3) the over-all uptrend started in June, recent correction was wave 2 and we are now at the start of wave 3 (well, an alternate diagonal count since June would be A-B and now in C (of 1))

for the above to be valid, the current wave up must clear 1,300 today, to match it's performance yesterday and "be impulsive".
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #197
  • Oct 16, 2013 12:25am Oct 16, 2013 12:25am
Quoting venzen
{quote} very good! PT, please cast an EW eye on the Gold chart. Is that wave up not a textbook impulse (with a 3-3-5 correction A-B-C) ? If that is an impulse, then the implications are: 1) the downtrend of the past 2 months was a correction 2) over-all trend is up and downside from 2011 top completed in June. 3) the over-all uptrend started in June, recent correction was wave 2 and we are now at the start of wave 3 (well, an alternate diagonal count since June would be A-B and now in C (of 1)) for the above to be valid, the current wave up must...
I like to keep my EW analysis nice and simple.
So, unless the falling channel (from 1430) resistance is breached and confirmed, the mid term target remains the larger wave 5 down which can complete in one of two ways...
1. Truncated 5th as double bottom around the 1200 mark
2. Completed 5th around the 1050 mark
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #198
  • Oct 16, 2013 1:30am Oct 16, 2013 1:30am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I like to keep my EW analysis nice and simple. So, unless the falling channel (from 1430) resistance is breached and confirmed, the mid term target remains the larger wave 5 down which can complete in one of two ways... 1. Truncated 5th as double bottom around the 1200 mark 2. Completed 5th around the 1050 mark

Thanks for your thoughts PT,

Seems I am jumping the gun anyway - despite the size and momentum of that last wave up, it does not strictly have an impulsive internal structure - diagonal maybe - but a "maybe" doesn't cut it.

I agree, for now all that can be said is that additional downside is likely unless upside action changes that expectation.

(still have no clue how to put that last wave in EW context tho'!)

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cryptocurrency everytime
  • #199
  • Oct 16, 2013 2:02am Oct 16, 2013 2:02am
Quoting venzen
{quote} Thanks for your thoughts PT, Seems I am jumping the gun anyway - despite the size and momentum of that last wave up, it does not strictly have an impulsive internal structure - diagonal maybe - but a "maybe" doesn't cut it. I agree, for now all that can be said is that additional downside is likely unless upside action changes that expectation. (still have no clue how to put that last wave in EW context tho'!) {image}
There is no need to know how a clock's internals work in order to know the time.
There is no need to perform a DNA test on a tree to know it is one.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #200
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:41am Oct 16, 2013 4:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} There is no need to know how a clock's internals work in order to know the time. There is no need to perform a DNA test on a tree to know it is one.

words of wisdom... i don't know what to say to match you... "time flies like an arrow but fruit flies like a banana"



thanks PT, i gedit: don't over-analyze... all will be revealed in good time!
cryptocurrency everytime
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