AUD/USD | Page 3382 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #67,621
  • Oct 15, 2013 12:19am Oct 15, 2013 12:19am
Quoting Psychologist
I don't know why the RBA minutes have been labeled as 'generally positive' by some here. IMO, it clearly points to a dovish policy. Here are some excerpts: {quote} ... {quote} Here they clearly say they are uncertain over the sustainability of consumer and business confidence. Also they state that it will take at least 1 year or so that the economic activity would return to the average trend. How else could they cast doubt on the recent upbeat data?! {quote} Here I have highlighted the most important part of the minutes. The options on table were...
I think RBA understand cut rates won't do much help to make economic better or to lower AUD.

Think about this, current rate is the lowest rate in recent 25 years. But AUD is still very strong. Low rates booming real estate markets but other business are still struggling.

When China changing their economic structure and slowing down their GDP, Aussie have to face very big trouble. This country highly rely on minerals and coles in the past 10 years. Howerver, China doesn't need as much as they used to.

I think RBA has no idea about what to do to make things correct.
  • #67,622
  • Oct 15, 2013 12:25am Oct 15, 2013 12:25am
Also worth of notice is the statements given by Glenn Stevens.In August, and when the Aussie was trading at about 0.89 levels against the USD, he said:

Quote
The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15 per cent since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.

So even at 0.89, RBA considered the exchange rate to be 'high'. So, what would they say when the exchange rate was at about 0.93 when they met for the last time? Read on:


Quote
The Australian dollar rose recently, but is still about 10 per cent below its level in April. A lower level of the currency than seen at present would assist in rebalancing growth in the economy.

See?! He is clearly stating that he wants a 'lower level of currency than seen at present' to assist the economy. And don't forget that this comment was made when the Aussie was trading at 0.93 against the USD!

With 2 cents of appreciation, one would wonder what's Stevens is pondering upon right now.
  • #67,623
  • Oct 15, 2013 12:43am Oct 15, 2013 12:43am
Quoting Psychologist
Also worth of notice is the statements given by Glenn Stevens.In August, and when the Aussie was trading at about 0.89 levels against the USD, he said: {quote} So even at 0.89, RBA considered the exchange rate to be 'high'. So, what would they say when the exchange rate was at about 0.93 when they met for the last time? Read on: {quote} See?! He is clearly stating that he wants a 'lower level of currency than seen...
AU is a small economic entity. Don't expect RBA can do something effectively like central banks(Fed) in US, EU, JP and CHINA. RBA is powerless.
  • #67,624
  • Oct 15, 2013 12:53am Oct 15, 2013 12:53am
Quoting zew
{quote} AU is a small economic entity. Don't expect RBA can do something effectively like central banks(Fed) in US, EU, JP and CHINA. RBA is powerless.
No one said that RBA is an indisputable global power. But it is the No 1 authority on in its own sphere of influence which is the AUD/USD exchange rate.

Regards,
  • #67,625
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:00am Oct 15, 2013 1:00am
Quoting Psychologist
Also worth of notice is the statements given by Glenn Stevens.In August, and when the Aussie was trading at about 0.89 levels against the USD, he said: {quote} So even at 0.89, RBA considered the exchange rate to be 'high'. So, what would they say when the exchange rate was at about 0.93 when they met for the last time? Read on: {quote} See?! He is clearly stating that he wants a 'lower level of currency than seen...
The RBA , like most central banks these days , simply don't have the firepower to move currencies for any sustained period .
They know intervention is futile and jawboning the markets no longer has has the desired effect
The FX markets are now too big and too liquid to take on . The relative strength or weakness in a nations currency is only 1 of many other considerations when setting monetary policy .
It took over 2 years and 7 cuts to the Official Cash Rate before we saw a sustained move below $1.02 .
Falling demand for Australia's resources and a slow grind up in Unemployment combined
with the gradual narrowing of Interest Rate differentials is what eventually took the Aussie back below parity & into the 90's.
  • #67,626
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:30am Oct 15, 2013 1:30am
115 pips from monday open with no retracement................. not bad..........

I wonder where bears are...........
Don't give up
  • #67,627
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:32am Oct 15, 2013 1:32am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} The RBA , like most central banks these days , simply don't have the firepower to move currencies for any sustained period . They know intervention is futile and jawboning the markets no longer has has the desired effect The FX markets are now too big and too liquid to take on . The relative strength or weakness in a nations currency is only 1 of many other considerations when setting monetary policy . It took over 2 years and 7 cuts to the Official Cash Rate before we saw a sustained move below $1.02 . Falling demand for Australia's resources...
I don't think so. Take the case of BOJ for example. How much were they able to depreciate the Yen in a short period of time?!

Central banks still have the upper hand in this game and should be respected.

Regards,
  • #67,628
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:33am Oct 15, 2013 1:33am
Quoting Psychologist
Also worth of notice is the statements given by Glenn Stevens.In August, and when the Aussie was trading at about 0.89 levels against the USD, he said: {quote} So even at 0.89, RBA considered the exchange rate to be 'high'. So, what would they say when the exchange rate was at about 0.93 when they met for the last time? Read on: {quote} See?! He is clearly stating that he wants a 'lower level of currency than seen...
they probably see the exchange rate in relative terms to growth hence high when growth lacking. They are just monitoring the trend now but didn't see anything so severe to make them opt for a change in interest rates. However in previous statement they said a rate cut would be helpful. A rate cut is expected in Feb and May 2014.
  • #67,629
  • Oct 15, 2013 1:41am Oct 15, 2013 1:41am
Quoting Psychologist
Also worth of notice is the statements given by Glenn Stevens.In August, and when the Aussie was trading at about 0.89 levels against the USD, he said: {quote} So even at 0.89, RBA considered the exchange rate to be 'high'. So, what would they say when the exchange rate was at about 0.93 when they met for the last time? Read on: {quote} See?! He is clearly stating that he wants a 'lower level of currency than seen...

The report is dovish nothing good about economy. Stevens was saying this when the dollar was over 1.05. And it remained there for quite some time before finally dropping. Just cause he says it's high doesn't mean jack if you ask me.

AUD will drop and will make a LL just a matter of time. 97 looks like the best price to sell if it gets there.
  • #67,630
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:14am Oct 15, 2013 2:14am
10 H4 green candles in a row

ever seen before?
Don't give up
  • #67,631
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:18am Oct 15, 2013 2:18am
Quoting feather
{quote} The report is dovish nothing good about economy. Stevens was saying this when the dollar was over 1.05. And it remained there for quite some time before finally dropping. Just cause he says it's high doesn't mean jack if you ask me. AUD will drop and will make a LL just a matter of time. 97 looks like the best price to sell if it gets there.
Agreed.

What's LL by the way?
  • #67,632
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:25am Oct 15, 2013 2:25am
sydney > buy
tokyo > buy
frankfurt > buy
london > buy

unbelievable...........
Don't give up
  • #67,633
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:27am Oct 15, 2013 2:27am
Quoting Psychologist
{quote} Agreed. What's LL by the way?
LL=Lower Low
LH=Lower High
HH=Hihher high
HL=Hihger low



Tim
  • #67,634
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:52am Oct 15, 2013 2:52am
What do you think about Aud/Usd in case of U.S. deal?

It seems it reacts bullish at every deal signs

What's from you?

Thx
Don't give up
  • #67,635
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:58am Oct 15, 2013 2:58am
Quoting geomink
What do you think about Aud/Usd in case of U.S. deal? It seems it reacts bullish at every deal signs What's from you? Thx
Bear are controlled market . Please avoid buying.
  • #67,636
  • Oct 15, 2013 2:59am Oct 15, 2013 2:59am
Quoting Zerd
{quote} Bear are controlled market . Please avoid buying.

Welcome Back Bear.
  • #67,637
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:00am Oct 15, 2013 3:00am
How is US deal will affect AUD/JPY ?
  • #67,638
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:04am Oct 15, 2013 3:04am
Quoting Zerd
{quote} Bear are controlled market . Please avoid buying.
do you see bears are in control just now?

i don't see any around it
Don't give up
  • #67,639
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:07am Oct 15, 2013 3:07am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} yep. not exactly my best month of trading but im still profitable... problem is with my system you got to hedge positions like those with other trades... one thing is confusing me big time you see EURUSD falling and GBPUSD falling, USDCHF going up and USDJPY going up... all on dollar strength.... confuses the hell out of me why AUDUSD isnt falling....
The whole time the Euro and Cable were rallying, the Aussie was falling. So a reversal of capital flow would obviously mean that while Euro and Cable fall, the Aussie will rise. Well at least in the short term until correlations start to make sense again.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,640
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:07am Oct 15, 2013 3:07am
Quoting geomink
{quote} do you see bears are in control just now? i don't see any around it
He is coming but walking slowly but surely!
15 traders viewing now