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AUD/USD

  • #67,601
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:02pm Oct 14, 2013 6:02pm
If .9528 holds, looking for .9635 next.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #67,602
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:14pm Oct 14, 2013 6:14pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} i dont really understand why you guys are so sure of the long! we have a possibe double top, ill wait for the next 2 candles H1 to decide on the position, however, i'm inclined to short!
That's why you wait for confirmation. Not sure why many are so sure of a short 300 pips ago. The market will move pairs to key points. Wait for those key points and risk to reward is increased.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #67,603
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:20pm Oct 14, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting Pip Anon
If .9528 holds, looking for .9635 next.
All the way up go to 0.98. a new govt, a new money policy, a new high! Hurry up push it up to sky and play a free fall after that! This is how to make $$$.......
  • #67,604
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:21pm Oct 14, 2013 6:21pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} That's why you wait for confirmation. Not sure why many are so sure of a short 300 pips ago. The market will move pairs to key points. Wait for those key points and risk to reward is increased.
cant agree more!
  • #67,605
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:23pm Oct 14, 2013 6:23pm
Perfect spot to add to my audusd shorts....
  • #67,606
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:25pm Oct 14, 2013 6:25pm
Quoting Pip Anon
If .9528 holds, looking for .9635 next.
how long can recognize it "hold"? always see this word but never get it
  • #67,607
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:34pm Oct 14, 2013 6:34pm
Although 80% of my positions are long I do have some small shorts. Will look to exit if we see 94 maybe 9360
Not confident aussie can break down much further than that.

If we get to 96 area then it makes me more confident that we will see 98 and then parity within 3 months

I believe 92 is a distant dream for many
  • #67,608
  • Oct 14, 2013 6:38pm Oct 14, 2013 6:38pm
Quoting fxlover11
If this count proved valid strong downtrend will be started after the completion of wave b. {image}
Nice pattern for short. May be wave b completed or not. Who knows...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU H4.png Size: 57 KB
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #67,609
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:14pm Oct 14, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} i dont really understand why you guys are so sure of the long! we have a possibe double top, ill wait for the next 2 candles H1 to decide on the position, however, i'm inclined to short!
I am not long. I have been bearish all year and still am. However, I currently don't have an open position on this pair. I pulled out of my shorts about a month ago when price retraced above 0.9400. I'm waiting for 0.9600 or 0.9390 to enter short again.
  • #67,610
  • Oct 14, 2013 7:25pm Oct 14, 2013 7:25pm
Quoting fxlover11
{quote} Nice pattern for short. May be wave b completed or not. Who knows... {image}
YA I see too NU charts.amazing chart to short there are pattern ABCD in different time frame
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post7025875
  • #67,611
  • Edited 8:16pm Oct 14, 2013 7:34pm | Edited 8:16pm
Attachment
Quoting ProfitRobot
{quote} how long can recognize it "hold"? always see this word but never get it
Personally, I wait for a rejection. If the 4h is rejected, I wait for a retest. Sometimes price action will continuously try to retest without a small retrace. This tends to further strengthen resistance.

I was able to pick the 1.3415 top in EURUSD because it repeatedly failed to break above or retrace. Price action tends to print a few doji-like candles. When you study charts you will pick out fading momentum.

Some think one candle rejection is enough, but I don't Many traders will short upon the first candle close only for it to move higher.

A "hold" for me is closing above key resistance. It is likely to get tested, if it breaks then it clearly didn't hold lol.

I guess the term itself is subjective, but the criteria is typically the same.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #67,612
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:47pm Oct 14, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting Pip Anon
1292996 {quote} Personally, I wait for a rejection. If the 4h is rejected, I wait for a retest. Sometimes price action will continuously try to retest without a small retrace. This tends to further strengthen resistance. I was able to pick the 1.3415 top in EURUSD because it repeatedly failed to break above or retrace. Price action tends to print a few doji-like candles. When you study charts you will pick out fading momentum. Some think one candle rejection is enough, but I don't Many traders will short upon the first candle close only for it to...

thank you
  • #67,613
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:51pm Oct 14, 2013 8:51pm
stops above .9550 as market rests on a wad of sellers in the 30-50 zone ..
  • #67,614
  • Oct 14, 2013 8:54pm Oct 14, 2013 8:54pm
Bearish divergences on everytime frame for AUD/USD be caredul longs
  • #67,615
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:10pm Oct 14, 2013 9:10pm
To crash AUD down needs following happen:

1. US debt ceiling solved makes USD strong again. (uncertain when?)
2. Tapering quantitative easing (uncertain when?)
3. China' GDP data(this week) lower than expected (probably higher than expected)
4. AU jobless rates 6% (next month, very high possibility)
5. RBA cut rates again. (uncertain when)

Above things not happen yet makes AUD such crazy strong.

That's what I'm thinking.
  • #67,616
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:30pm Oct 14, 2013 9:30pm
Quoting zew
To crash AUD down needs following happen: 1. US debt ceiling solved makes USD strong again. (uncertain when?) 2. Tapering quantitative easing (uncertain when?) 3. China' GDP data(this week) lower than expected (probably higher than expected) 4. AU jobless rates 6% (next month, very high possibility) 5. RBA cut rates again. (uncertain when) Above things not happen yet makes AUD such crazy strong. That's what I'm thinking.
the current Aud/usd behaviour is the same behaviour BEFORE any big event.

I had analysed for many years , the behavoiur before any big news is same:
* direction of trend will persist untill thu us news is out.
  • #67,617
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:39pm Oct 14, 2013 9:39pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...s-at-risk.html
  • #67,618
  • Oct 14, 2013 9:44pm Oct 14, 2013 9:44pm
I don't know why the RBA minutes have been labeled as 'generally positive' by some here. IMO, it clearly points to a dovish policy. Here are some excerpts:

Quote
Recent data for the domestic economy had confirmed that, as expected, overall growth had been below trend. Non-mining investment had remained subdued, as businesses had been reluctant to take on new risks, and mining investment had turned down. Growth of household consumption had been below average, consistent with subdued conditions in the labour market and softer growth of wages. Consumer confidence was above average levels and business confidence had increased, although it remained to be seen if this would be sustained.

...

Quote
The information to hand at the meeting was consistent with growth of economic activity remaining below trend over the next year or so before an expected pick-up. Inflation was expected to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years. Members noted two developments over the past month, namely the appreciation of the exchange rate and the pick-up in measures of both consumer and business confidence over recent weeks. It was difficult to know how significant the effects of either of these developments would...
Here they clearly say they are uncertain over the sustainability of consumer and business confidence. Also they state that it will take at least 1 year or so that the economic activity would return to the average trend. How else could they cast doubt on the recent upbeat data?!
Quote
The Board's judgement was that, given the substantial degree of policy stimulus that had been imparted, it would be prudent to leave the cash rate at the existing low level while continuing to gauge the effects. Members agreed that the Bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them. The Board would continue to examine the data over the months ahead to assess whether monetary policy was appropriately configured.


Here I have highlighted the most important part of the minutes. The options on table were not between increasing rates or leaving it unchanged. The choices were:

1- Closing off the possibility of reducing rates further

2- Signalling an imminent intention to reduce them

RBA members then agreed to leave the markets confused by signalling none of this options. It clearly means that they are inclined to intervene again if the conditions worsen but don't want to signal an 'imminent' rate cut, considering the massively dovish measures taken recently.

Take this together with their doubtful stand on the recent developments and you have a central bank that is a very low tolerance to a deterioration of economic activity and is ready to take dovish measures again.
  • #67,619
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:09pm Oct 14, 2013 10:09pm
Break of 0.9530 with a strong breakout candle will lead it to: 0.9650-0.9800 - 1.000 under support: 0.9220
Trade Safe.

Regards: #Maan
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  • #67,620
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:14pm Oct 14, 2013 10:14pm
if today's daily can close below 0.9530, possible double top then swing can happen from here. else above 0.9530 = further breakout after pullback completion from the chart i posted before.

anyway.

if below 0.9530. swing back within 0.9530-0.9280 range. sideway range
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