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  • #67,481
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:33pm Oct 13, 2013 4:33pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Correct. There is no gap in the interbank market. If there was, it would have been visible on the chart I posted, and it clearly isn't By the way, that quick move down was in almost zero volume in an illiquid market, so I class it as MM re-pricing. Nothing else. Hence, the "fill the gap" prophecy will likely be fulfilled.
How do you know it was zero volume? banks were driving it down.... as seen in the interbank feed....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #67,482
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:37pm Oct 13, 2013 4:37pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Correct. There is no gap in the interbank market. If there was, it would have been visible on the chart I posted, and it clearly isn't By the way, that quick move down was in almost zero volume in an illiquid market, so I class it as MM re-pricing. Nothing else. Hence, the "fill the gap" prophecy will likely be fulfilled.
admittedly there was low volume, but on most interbank ECN's there was some volume. From what I can tell from tick charts w/volume is that the initial 20 or so point drop occurring at around 19:02 was a mark lower by price makers, then until about 19:15 there was definitely decent sized volume which took it down another 0.33% after the re-marked price
  • #67,483
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:45pm Oct 13, 2013 4:45pm
From RBS china on CNY data

RBS China | Weak exports reflect muted global demand but solid imports indicate robust domestic demand:

Although the underlying picture is not as bad as the headline data suggests, China's exports were weak in September and this follows poor export data in Korea and Taiwan. The subdued export numbers in Asia reflect the still muted state of global demand. Imports did substantially better. Moreover, the overall import data masks a contrast between weak processing imports and strong normal imports used in China's own economy. Looking ahead, export data is likely to remain subdued in the coming months. Nonetheless, with GDP growth higher than China's government's bottom line, we expect it to hold on to the firmer monetary stance that it has pursued since mid 2013.

Exports were down 0.3% yoy in US$ terms in September, according to the headline data (Table 1). This is much weaker than the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 5.5% growth. Growth of exports to the US fell from 6.1% in August to 4.2% in September, and exports to the EU fell 1%, after 2.5% expansion in August (all yoy). Exports to the ASEAN region also decelerated, to 9.8% yoy, the slowest rate since May 2012, reflecting the slowdown there induced by tapering turmoil.

The underlying picture is not as bad as the headline data suggest. The over-invoicing of exports to disguise capital inflows that took place in 2012H2 and, especially, in 2013H1is not an issue anymore but it inflated the base in September 2012 used to calculate yoy export growth; in our estimate by about 2 ppt. Thus, we gauge actual export growth at about 1.7% in US$ terms in September. Also, falling prices affect the headline data. With prices of exports in US$ terms falling by about 2% yoy at the moment, on our estimates actual exports expanded by about 3.8% yoy in real terms in September.

Nonetheless, September was a weak month for China's exports, sequentially. After adjusting for seasonality real exports fell about 3% mom, in our estimates. This weakness is consistent with the poor export numbers from Korea and Taiwan earlier on.

The subdued export numbers in Asia reflect the still muted state of global demand. We have in recent months seen a helpful recovery in activity in the US, Europe and Japan. However, as we noted before, this growth recovery in the US, Europe and Japan is less import-intensive than usual, reflecting strategies to rebalance growth in many developed countries, and this is dampening global trade and thus export growth in Asia (see China's trade data confirms global demand is picking up and domestic demand remains solid, September 9).

Overall imports grew 7.4% yoy, broadly in line with the Bloomberg consensus. With import prices also falling yoy, this implies about 8.9% yoy real growth.

The overall import data masks a contrast between weak processing imports used in the processing sector and strong normal imports used in China's economy. Processing imports were up only 1.7% yoy in real terms, in our preliminary estimates, in line with poor processing exports.

Looking ahead

Export data may be quite weak in the coming months. Assuming the current stand-off in the US on fiscal policy gets resolved soon, growth in the developed world should improve, and this should support global trade. However, since July financial turmoil in several emerging markets (EMs) following QE tapering discussions in the US has weakened global demand. In our view this will affect China's exports in the rest of the year. On top of that, the data issues will further cloud the headline picture. With the drag from the inflated base of a year ago getting larger, China's headline export data may thus be quite weak in the months ahead.

Despite the subdued export outlook, we expect the government to maintain its current policy stance. As indicated by the import data, domestic demand is supporting GDP growth. The kind of growth we are projecting--7.6% GDP growth in Q3 and 7.7% in Q4--is higher than the government's "bottom line". Thus, barring a sharp deterioration in the outlook, we expect it to hold on to the firmer monetary stance that it is trying to pursue in order to rein in overall credit growth.
  • #67,484
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:54pm Oct 13, 2013 4:54pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Fxalien, What support level you got? You thinking a retest of 1.13?I've 1.1350 as a low possibly 1.1330.
AUDNZD - 1.1250 to 1.1300 area , you have to allow for any fast spikes and fake outs..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #67,485
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:56pm Oct 13, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} AUDNZD - 1.1250 to 1.1300 area , you have to allow for any fast spikes and fake outs..............
Speaking of fast spikes!!! Crazy vol right now for this hour
  • #67,486
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:57pm Oct 13, 2013 4:57pm
Quoting JeremyWS
From RBS china on CNY data RBS China .....
Nice. What was purpose of this text? Are you guessing what Market makers will do based on this text and your interpretation of it....?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #67,487
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:59pm Oct 13, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Speaking of fast spikes!!! Crazy vol right now for this hour
that was NZD news - services psi rises to 55.6 vs 53.3
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #67,488
  • Oct 13, 2013 4:59pm Oct 13, 2013 4:59pm
Quoting mima
{quote} Nice. What was purpose of this text? Are you guessing what Market makers will do based on this text and your interpretation of it....?
well its merely another view point, and I'm pretty sure we should believe RBS analysts more than any faux economist that comments here.
  • #67,489
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:00pm Oct 13, 2013 5:00pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} admittedly there was low volume, but on most interbank ECN's there was some volume. From what I can tell from tick charts w/volume is that the initial 20 or so point drop occurring at around 19:02 was a mark lower by price makers, then until about 19:15 there was definitely decent sized volume which took it down another 0.33% after the re-marked price
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} How do you know it was zero volume? banks were driving it down.... as seen in the interbank feed....
I said "almost zero volume" which is a good indication that only a handful of players were involved with that move.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,490
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:07pm Oct 13, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} well its merely another view point, and I'm pretty sure we should believe RBS analysts more than any faux economist that comments here.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,491
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:07pm Oct 13, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} that was NZD news - services psi rises to 55.6 vs 53.3

Hopefully that 1.1330 support holds now and makes the resumption upwards over night
  • #67,492
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:17pm Oct 13, 2013 5:17pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Hopefully that 1.1330 support holds now and makes the resumption upwards over night
Yep. The way this crazy-a$$ market is behaving, all we got is hope. I'm quite confident we will eventually blow through 1.1550 though.
My targets are 1.1765, 1.1940 and possibly 1.2115
At this point (my view may change later) I see this as a counter trend move, so after that I expect a bearish resumption.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,493
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:20pm Oct 13, 2013 5:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. The way this crazy-a$$ market is behaving, all we got is hope. I'm quite confident we will eventually blow through 1.1550 though. My targets are 1.1765, 1.1940 and possibly 1.2115 At this point (my view may change later) I see this as a counter trend move, so after that I expect a bearish resumption.

You've yet to fail me mate! Have you the same support areas in your eye as I do? or are you seeing a move below 1.13 as a possibility? I'm quite happy with 1.17, I have two longs on this one which is just at BE right the other I took at 1.1350 so a little under water nothing major though still in green with my NZD/USD short too
  • #67,494
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:25pm Oct 13, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} You've yet to fail me mate! Have you the same support areas in your eye as I do? or are you seeing a move below 1.13 as a possibility? I'm quite happy with 1.17, I have two longs on this one which is just at BE right the other I took at 1.1350 so a little under water nothing major though still in green with my NZD/USD short too
For me the only support that really matters is the low... which on my charts is 1.1197. A break below that and I'm out of the trade.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,495
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:29pm Oct 13, 2013 5:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} For me the only support that really matters is the low... which on my charts is 1.1197. A break below that and I'm out of the trade.
If we see that I think I'll be sick
  • #67,496
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:30pm Oct 13, 2013 5:30pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} If we see that I think I'll be sick
I don't believe we'll see that. That's why my stop is down there.
I never place stops where I believe price has a chance of visiting.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,497
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:32pm Oct 13, 2013 5:32pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I don't believe we'll see that. That's why my stop is down there. I never place stops where I believe price has a chance of visiting.
mines 1.1250 for both my longs BE for my short. I'd love to wake up tomorrow and see AUD/NZD above 1.14 and NZD/USD back below 0.83 then I'll walk into the office like I own it! Talk soon!
  • #67,498
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:36pm Oct 13, 2013 5:36pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} mines 1.1250 for both my longs BE for my short. I'd love to wake up tomorrow and see AUD/NZD above 1.14 and NZD/USD back below 0.83 then I'll walk into the office like I own it! Talk soon!
I think 1.1250 is pretty safe, but not safe enough for me to sleep on. However, chances are we head back up to 1.14 before anything else happens. Good night Rod.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,499
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:47pm Oct 13, 2013 5:47pm
THe AUD is moving South
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #67,500
  • Oct 13, 2013 5:49pm Oct 13, 2013 5:49pm
AUDUSD at 93.90 would be good to see today?
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
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