In your experience, which Fibonacci numbers have proved better? | Forex Factory

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In your experience, which Fibonacci numbers have proved better?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 13, 2013 5:47am Oct 13, 2013 5:47am
I hear 38.2 is a good one and of course 61.8. I have been backtesting between these two levels as i find these are the best for retracements. I hear 61.8 is the better of the two as it's a more significant number. What about you?
  • #2
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:30am Oct 13, 2013 6:30am
the 0 and 100 levels
Time hides Nothing
  • #3
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:39am Oct 13, 2013 6:39am
23.6 level for pullback
  • #4
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:45am Oct 13, 2013 6:45am
I do not use fibonacci 23.6 and when using it 88.6 .. fibo for an extremely accurate ratio reversed, something you need to check out when price respect fibo. it is interesting
Trading in the zone
  • #5
  • Oct 13, 2013 6:55am Oct 13, 2013 6:55am
Quoting hao
I do not use fibonacci 23.6 and when using it 88.6 .. fibo for an extremely accurate ratio reversed, something you need to check out when price respect fibo. it is interesting
Very interesting. I just plotted this level on my fibs and i can see price does react very well on this area. Thanks for the headsup.
  • #6
  • Oct 13, 2013 7:12am Oct 13, 2013 7:12am
Quoting ReyesWhite
I hear 38.2 is a good one and of course 61.8. I have been backtesting between these two levels as i find these are the best for retracements. I hear 61.8 is the better of the two as it's a more significant number. What about you?
For many years I was an advocate of Fibs and I spent a lot of time, effort and money using them. I've forgotten more about them than most ever learn. I stopped using them because I finally discovered something about them that made them unnecessary for me.

1. The best retracement number is 50% and that's not a fib.
2. You show me a chart with price bouncing off a Fib and I'll show you the real reason why it's bouncing.
  • #7
  • Oct 13, 2013 7:23am Oct 13, 2013 7:23am
Quoting Dopey
{quote} For many years I was an advocate of Fibs and I spent a lot of time, effort and money using them. I've forgotten more about them than most ever learn. I stopped using them because I finally discovered something about them that made them unnecessary for me. 1. The best retracement number is 50% and that's not a fib. 2. You show me a chart with price bouncing off a Fib and I'll show you the real reason why it's bouncing.
closing price respect not exceed the fib or closing = fib. increase your win rate should go along with s / r....
Trading in the zone
  • #8
  • Oct 13, 2013 7:30am Oct 13, 2013 7:30am
Quoting Dopey
You show me a chart with price bouncing off a Fib and I'll show you the real reason why it's bouncing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 50 fib.png Size: 37 KB
Time hides Nothing
  • #9
  • Oct 13, 2013 7:46am Oct 13, 2013 7:46am
Here you go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bounce.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #10
  • Oct 13, 2013 7:56am Oct 13, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Dopey
Here you go. {image}
I see price respect 50% fib. trade with a stop loss closely and high precision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.PNG Size: 8 KB
Trading in the zone
  • #11
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:04am Oct 13, 2013 8:04am
Quoting hao
{quote} I see price respect 50% fib. trade with a stop loss closely and high precision. {image}

50% is not a Fib.
  • #12
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:07am Oct 13, 2013 8:07am
No validity whatsoever.
For every example that "proves" some level's validity (i.e. 50 %), there are dozens of examples that proves that it does not work.
  • #13
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:09am Oct 13, 2013 8:09am
Quoting Dopey
{quote} 50% is not a Fib.
fib is one of two methods of determining my entry. I prefer high precision.
Trading in the zone
  • #14
  • Oct 13, 2013 8:13am Oct 13, 2013 8:13am
Quoting Mingary
No validity whatsoever. For every example that "proves" some level's validity (i.e. 50 %), there are dozens of examples that proves that it does not work.
true, it has no effect when the closing price exceeds 50%. your business with long term fib, you will have see experience failure when with fib
Trading in the zone
  • #15
  • Oct 13, 2013 1:38pm Oct 13, 2013 1:38pm
In my experience 50% - although not a fib - is the most important retracement level too.

Brain sciences offer explanations for being so. It has to do with way our brain process information, and the way we consequently make decisions based on that information. Ever noticed how most people are prone to put things into only two categories (even when they may be aware of grey areas inbetween these categories)? Good, bad. Right, wrong. Beautiful, ugly. Harmless, dangerous. Black, white. Democrats, Republicans. Etc. This is something that didn't simply came to be by chance. Our brain was evolutionary wired to save as much time and energy as possible in our everyday decision making. The speed it took our ancestors to decide running away from a lion could be the difference between life and death. That said, although we are perfectly able of finer decision making (based on comparisons of 3 plus categories), most of our everyday decisions are made on automatic pilot modes (2 categories comparisons, and priming).

The implications when it comes to traders/investors - novices and experts alike - are that, like most people, we too are prone to make decisions on automatic pilot (based on 2 categories). A high (or low) price can be seen as expensive, and a 50% retrace price (which represents something now costing half the price it costed at some recent point in time) can be seen as cheap.
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #16
  • Edited 11:21pm Oct 13, 2013 11:21pm | Edited 11:21pm
Whenever interbanks start to think of how to hedge against a future release or anything like that, I know for fact that they start opening up charts and lay down those interbank-sophisticated fibs. They want to see which .618 retrace will net them the most profit, or sometimes they theorize about where they should be stop hunting. Even Warren Buffet uses the .618. I mean, how do you think he did the billion dollar trade? By having information that few had and the skills, experience, and capital to pull it off? Fuck no, that would be gambling.
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #17
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:13am Oct 14, 2013 10:13am
I have found, in several occassion 38.2% is the most powerful retracement support level. I use Fib frequently.
Enter Signature
  • #18
  • Oct 14, 2013 10:31am Oct 14, 2013 10:31am
Fib numbers are totally useless. but please...continue curve-fitting and attempting to find several coincidental positive proofs among a myriad of failures. Drawing retracements after the fact is quite simple....realtime not so much.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #19
  • Last Post: Oct 15, 2013 6:00am Oct 15, 2013 6:00am
Quoting LizardGizzard
Fib numbers are totally useless. but please...continue curve-fitting and attempting to find several coincidental positive proofs among a myriad of failures. Drawing retracements after the fact is quite simple....realtime not so much.
price is random, the problem is how to increase win rate.
Trading in the zone
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